Do You Still Have Faith In Gino?

Perhaps the most rational well thought-out post on the thread ? Not that I've read many. Spectacular success for 7 years. Utter nightmare for the last 2 years. We are still above our natural position in the leagues (more big clubs below us than small clubs above us) but the direction we are heading is pretty clear.
My own view is that they never expected to get us into the prem and achieving that blew all their plans. I think we were bought as a cheap buy, with which to give high profile game time to players not required at Udinese, to create a sell-on price. Players like Abdi, Vydra, Angella etc etc. I doubt for a minute they thought they could maintain a prem club when they bought us. Promotion meant that instead of buying cheap, developing, and selling on players at a profit, the requirement was to source and buy in more expensive better players to try to retain prem status against bigger richer clubs. Very effective for a while but the need to keep buying, borrowing and making the fewer £££s go further than peers, had to fail at some point, and it did spectacularly. They should have sold the club 2 years ago and enjoyed the cash. Now they should abandon any thinking of promotion and trying to retain prem status as they just don't have the funds, or frankly, the ability. Just stay comfortably in the champ, develop players, sell them on to the big boys, and don't break the bank once equilibrium has been re-established.

 

Signing Deulofeu was simply to free up a loan slot. Like West Ham did with Benrahma.

 

I think if this was the mindset surely they’d have just “done a Norwich” at an unexpected promotion and just hoovered up the cash. For all the recent ineptitude Pozzo did an excellent job that first promotion summer of making us competitive.

 

So they did abandon the transfer project then? Because I've been told for years that they hadn't.

I feel history will be frantically rewritten as time goes on.

 

I think that was the mindset but, as I said, the mindset changed when they actually got promotion. It then became about trying to spend cleverly to stay up, signings like Britos, Prodl were not their traditional model of buy to develop and sell, they were to try to retain prem status at a limited cost (high salary but limited transfer fees spent). As has been stated before, no transfer fees were paid in the champ last time to get promoted and the fees in the prem were initially very modest. Other than the £12m-£18m (depending on who you believe) for Gray, and then the £30m on Sarr, many signings were actually pretty good value (GD, Richarlison, Doucoure, Capoue, Hughes, Chalo (pre injury)) with only small sums being wasted on the likes of Oulare. But we were always going to be relegated one day as will Burnley, Fulham, WBA, Brighton, CP, sheff U, smaller clubs can't stay up forever.

 

I think they had to with promotion. Proper fees for proper prem quality players....and Gray.
They are still investing in promising players like those who refused to stay with us in the summer, and randon names we see on threads every now and then, but I think that became a bit of a sideline given the priority was to stay in the prem. Plus lots of other clubs have replicated and surpasses their "world-beating" model.

 

I don't think there's been enough scrutiny by fans on how the club is run. Yes, the club's board has continuity as Pozzo kept the same people on it and just added Duxbury but who knows who Damiano Jarmorini and Marco Jura are? They're the two other Directors of the parent company, Hornets Investment Limited. Two Swiss blokes who are both also on the board of a company owned by Raffaele Riva (the bloke who submitted the forged HSBC bank statement) who was given an indefinite ban from English football.

Who are these people and what's their interest in our club? The debt is all loaded onto Hornets Investment Limited.

 

I have been calling Pozzo out on this for a number of years. I have questioned the owners motives.

Until now I have been shouted down and suffered personal abuse.

All is not well with the club.

A fair few on here will have apologies to make to those of us who questioned the owners and wanted them held to account.

 

I'd probably delete the third paragraph in your post to be honest, if not yourself then the mods should.

 

I think they completely underestmated the differences between the Prem and Serie A/Ligue 1.

They also ovee milked the Watford Cash cow.

Maybe it was an old fashioned style Mafia bust out. Rack up debts and then torch the place and run, however, that's not consistent with the panic selling of players to pay down some of that debt.

Gino had a strategy - use the players who weren't good enough for champions league Udinese, but who were more than good enough for Championship Watford to get us promoted. Once we rose above the level of Forestieri and Pudil, there was no ability to adapt.

We trod water for a time, with a few signings coming off, but most not. Eventually the odds overtook us and we are were we are.

 

I think you could be spot on, judging by the signings the club did make in the window, as most of them were youngsters with the potential to make them money when sold or loaned out for fees. Gino just does not seem interested in strengthening our first team at all

 

I'm sure he'd like to strengthen but doesn't have the finances to be able to. Somehow we will need to sell Sarr, Hughes etc to pay down debt and cover lack of match fees but when can we sell and what would we get for them ? I think we have about a 20% chance of promotion but we need to ensure we survive if we don't go up.

 

If we can sell the amount of players that we have and still have no money to sign anyone, then just wow.

I'm sure @Jumbolina knows best, but surely we had some spare change kicking around for a couple of signings for cash.

 

I’m not sure we do given we were loaded with debt by the end of the good times. I had hoped that making Delofeou a permanent would shuffle some cash our way for some modest loan signings but who knows anymore. Next set of accounts must be out soon which will shed some more light on our status.

 

I'm pretty certain that the amount we owe exceeds the value of our assets (mainly players) largely due to the death of the transfer market and hence player values. The loss of gate receipts and declining tv monies will mean that deficit is getting worse. I'm sure we could have spent a few £££s in the window but every £ would have just made it worse. I genuinely think that we may be in serious financial risk in 2 years given relegation, high debts and the impacts of Covid, and they are doing everything they can now to try to head that future problem off. If I was them I would have been tempted to bet the house on promotion this season and next with a view to selling for $100m+ and just accept the club goes into administration if they fail and they walk away with nothing. But I'm a heartless accountant .

 

The downward spiral is well and truly spinning. I believe that having no fans in the ground has disguised the drop in status as you can generally get the feel of a club by its attendances and atmosphere at the games. Without the fans the players and coach can get away without critics. Gates would normally be around the 16000 mark after a relegation to the championship, with high hopes of an entertaining promotion push. I wonder what sort of attendance we would be getting now without lockdown. I would guess around the 11/12,000. When fans are allowed back with no restrictions I think there will be quite a drop in attendances.
How low will we drop is up to the owners before enough is enough and they sell up. The problem for us fans is that they will want to strip the club of any assets and that could mean another relegation before we get new owners.
God this is depressing......

 

I'm as annoyed about our transfer window and how this season has been going as many on here, but ******* hell this thread has escalated.

Gino has made some questionable decisions, and is becoming increasingly hard to understand/defend but worst owner we've ever had - come off it.

We've been a football club for 140 years. Gino has been in charge for the second most successful spell in our entire history. We are a by size a small championship club, the only reason we're annoyed about this season is because Gino raised expectations. All while massively improving our stadium and training ground.

As I said i'm as annoyed as many and think they've made some stupid and very avoidable mistakes, but let's keep some perspective. They deserve scrutiny and I agree with much of the discontent, but talk of them being worst than Basisni and some of our other owners in laughable.

 

With all due respect, I don’t give a flying **** what the stupid ****s did before. In a championship season with the clubs financial health on the line, they have just let 3 midfielders and a striker go, bringing in one unwanted midfielder from our nearest rival. We have one left back, and not enough midfielders to ever change from this god damn awful 442 they have told the manager to play. The manager doesn’t even ******* know what players are coming and going.

Incompetence of the highest degree - genuinely don’t think any owner before would leave the squad so short in this situation. Not least when they’ve just paid themselves 12.5 mil from another club they own with an assortment of resources. ******* clueless ****s and I hope they sell up ASAP.

 

They spent the last week begging clubs to loan us strikers/midfielders for nothing wages so trust me they knew we were in desperate need. They just don’t understand that they aren’t owed anything here and aren’t very well liked. Ended up with absolutely nothing, the same as as the pathetic left back situation in the summer. They are ******* awful.

 

Depends what the state of the finances are like. And we will only have visibility of that in the next year or so. If we just go back to championship also ran with rickety finances then you would be correct of course. Could be worse than that though - hopefully not.

 

I think Gino wants out, I really do. I think he’d take the first half decent offer that comes along. In the meantime he wants to stop haemorrhaging cash by selling what he can.

 

From what i've heard, Gino has pretty much no interest in the 'business' side of the club. Duxberry deals with everything off the pitch, including money/sponsorships/marketing strategy etc. Gino deals with everything on the pitch. Not sure what my point here is, but just repeating what i've heard.

 

That in itself is a major concern and puts an even bigger question mark over Gino.

Surely this needs his father to come in and shake the club up - its spiraling out of control atm.

Nothing Duxbury has done gives me confidence in his fiscal managment.

 

Why is having ambition such a bad thing?

 

Recent history is littered with owners that have overseen short term success on the pitch but have also crippled clubs with debt and threatened their very existence.

That's the concern here. No-one is disputing that he oversaw the second best spell in or our history in terms of league positions and results. The growing worry amongst some of us is at what cost?

It's as plain as anything we have no money right now. If that is just necessary cost cutting due to relegation but we're financially stable overall then that's fine and he can still be viewed positively overall. If it's not, and he has saddled the club with a mountain of debt that we can't service, it is very much not.

People that know far more about finances than me have looked at our accounts and concluded that he has borrowed against everything - the ground, TV money, future income from player sales. It really does sound quite perilous.

 

I have calmed down somewhat from last night's debacle on the field of play. My attitude on the owners has strayed into the negative for some time now, but I am trying to look at it from an objective point of view.

As others have mentioned, it is undeniable that the owners have brought us to levels that we would simply not have achieved without them. We are a mid sized club, who punched above their weight for a number of seasons. That did bring opportunities to stabalise our structures from an infrastructural and financial point of view, but the last day relegation swept that rug from under us, further compounded by the impact of covid.

The Pozzos will want success as much as the fans, but they clearly look at finances more closely than we would. Having said that, there are some decisions, from a financial point of view, that make no sense. The instability caused by appointing new management teams so regularly has got to have a major financial impact as well as hindering long term planning. The granting of high paying contracts to players who are past their best or who were never decent footballers in the first place, has also set us back financially. That could be down to bad timing as well as bad judgement. Sarr was a big gamble and I just get the feeling he is homesick/lonely/fed up. That money that the owners paid out for him must be a concern as they, I would imagine, would be desperate for him to retain his value.

On not getting new strikers, you can nearly see the logic of them holding out hope that, out of the five forwards, we should have enough to get two competent forwards. Of the five, only one is really capable of being off loaded and there would be uproar if Pedro was sold. An argument can be made that our style of football does not great enough chances for any forward, no matter what their ability.

One of the most difficult things to understand is the reluctance to buy, loan or promote a left back or two. It is almost as if a stubbornness have transfixed the hierarchy, and they will not be told that it is essential that we have this position covered.

I feel that there are a number of issues that we have to accept:

1. We are not a high enough profile or sexy club to attract or keep the top players (although our proximity to London may be an advantage)
2. There is a poor atmosphere in the club and you get the sense that (other than a few exceptions) there are no players playing for the jersey or the community.
3. We are being very cautious on spending as a result of a precarious financial position. This may stand to us in the long run.
4. Our owners treat the managers as disposable errand boys and this impacts the players attitude to their immediate boss. This will also make it impossible to secure a longer term top class manger with a mind of his own
5. Other clubs have surpassed our supposedly world class scouting system.
6. If we did secure promotion, which looked a possibility before last night, we would not have the resources or personnel to survive the premier league.

As boring and frustrating a comment as it is, we may need a period of consolidation and a rebuilding plan, once we have managed to cast off the dead wood and over come our money troubles. I do feel that the owners are going to have to rethink their policy of total control over the management's teams day to day running of the squad, giving them the opportunity to appoint experienced and competent managers who might hang around for awhile.

On balance, and this can change from hour to hour, I think it is better that we stick with the devil you know.

 

I forgot to mention the downright reckless managerial appointment too.

 

It seems like kicking us when we are down, to take our second highest value asset off us, when we can't even afford the wages of a loan striker, midfielder or left back.

Pereyra and Delofeou is 35m worth of assets. Presumably the accounts will show if there's a circa 40m black hole from asset stripping?

 

Partially true - but Duxbury has kicked back against some ideas that would have taken the club forward. Analytics, selling Deeney amongst others - he does have a say in footballing matters and most crucially - he has Gino's ear. He was the man who sold the idea of buying the club to Gino and I think its afforded him too much sway after all this time. The owner is blinded to it.

Contrary to belief, there are a lot of people who work at the club, or used to, who hold Gino in very high regard. The same cannot be said for Duxbury.

I think its gone beyond the point of no return for either of them now personally - but Gino could have turned perception of him around sooner had he listened to others.

 

Liked for the info rather than the content, if you see what I mean...

 

This is an excellent point - although I think maybe your numbers are a bit low. I think we'd have been around 17k if everything was normal this season, maybe dropping to 14k for evening kos or dire form. Then shedding maybe 10% of that next season assuming we stayed down. Obviously all hypothetical and I have a feeling by the time going to football without restrictions is a thing again we'll be back to the 12k range in the Championship.

Either way, you're absolutely right that the club has sort of carried on in a weird bubble. Other than different opponents and refs, what else tells the players they've dropped down a tier? It looks like they stay in the same pre-match 5* hotel, have the same coach travel, the same facilities in the stadium, the pitch is still immaculate (I suspect the budget for that will be chopped in the summer) etc. All main things that would show it - smaller attendances, fewer journos at the weekly press conference etc - are avoided because of Covid and lockdowns.

 

Oh dear!
Where to begin, "The more I know the less I understand" I suppose is a fair summation.
Many have covered expertly the 'Seven years of fat( and the quite possible) seven years of lean" that will follow.
Many have noted the good things that Gino has done regarding the 'hardware' the ground,the training ground,the naming of the stands etc and pointed out the 'software' problems of recruitment and over inflated salaries.
Whatever point on the curve we each sit is,to me,academic as to what does Gino DO now?
The spiel that came out post relegation is looking increasingly like weasel words and will be a haunting reminder at the end of this season no doubt.
Has he approached SEJ do any of our ITK members know?
Can he form a collective/collaboration with plutocrats known to SEJ in the US?
All I really know is this is not working and he needs to seek help of a financial kind before we need help of a Samaritan kind!