April Fool Werewolf 2020 Day 3

I think we spent a lot of time last game focussing on cryptic clues and writing styles. I think it's started to dominate the game to a disproportionate level.

 

Blimey, I understand those thinking that message 1 today - and the general poet - is probably the wolf, considering there seems no obvious reason why the Seer would have chosen to have viewed Cassetti's Beard. The poet's other two "views" of Horace and BRLR were also picks that made little sense.

I had already been thinking that the two obvious choices for a Seer to have picked today would have been moog or optimistichornet.

So the cryptic, non-messenger's choices of viewing moog today (and also nisman and hornetgags before) definitely seem more logical from a Seer's point of view.

Having said that, considering the first message today, the second poster is right in saying that:

"In retrospect I should have viewed Cassettis Beard in an attempt to disprove the wolf’s post this morning, (although he still may prove to be incorrect as he may not know for sure who is fellow Evils are.)"

If the Seer is the second messager today then they're really not doing us any favours (though the poet messager is being even less helpful).

 

Also, some have suggested an 'inexperienced seer' but looking at the fact that there's about four different poster's punctuation styles in the 11.09 says differently to me.

 

I agree. If seer is message 2, the absolutely right thing for them to do was also view CB.

That would've literally clarified all messages up until now!!!

They even mentioned it and still didn't do it.

 

So we now have:

Messenger A: 1. BRLR (Good - ?), 2. Horace (Good - ?), 3. CB (Evil - ?)
Messenger B 1. Nisman (Evil - confirmed Good) (copied style), 2. Gags (Good - confirmed Good) (changed style) 3. Moog (Good - ?)

On day 1, there was a 1/9 chance of finding a tinker/ joker. There was a 1/6 chance of seeing an evil.
Today there is a 1/12 chance of finding the tinker. There's a 1/4 chance of seeing an evil.

Agree with you about the picks. Nisman, Gags, Moog are more obvious picks than BRLR, Horace and CB (all of whom I felt were likely to be good players).

 

Good point that the viewing and the message happens at different times.

So do you think the second message is from the seer, as only they would have a gap in time between the view and the message?

 

They said "In retrospect I should have viewed Cassettis Beard in an attempt to disprove the wolf’s post this morning, (although he still may prove to be incorrect as he may not know for sure who is fellow Evils are.).

That to me suggests if they are the seer then they did the viewing after the first message and only later realised it was the wrong choice. If they are the seer.

 

Is Nisman the Tinker then if Seer viewed him as evil but turned out to be good?

 

My hunch is the second message today is the Seer. He/she seems to be very open about their decisions and admitted mistakes. A genuine attempt at clarity, which we all, myself included, asked for from the start.

It could of course be an obvious ruse by the wolf, but to me it seems far more likely the Seer will attempt to be clear whilst the Wolf has more to gain by maintaining an air of mystery.

 

Yes, Nisman is either the tinker or a wolf/traitor.

Bearing in mind that Nisman was inactive it seems unlikely he would have had a major role, so probably Tinker imo.

 

So you re saying that the Seer ( if he was 2nd) made decision to view Moog after seeing Wolf's message today, because he felt Moog was Evil for the reasons he explained. And then Moog turns out to be good and so he realises retrospectively he should have viewed CB? Makes sense.

 

For what it's worth, we have 12 left - the second message being from the Seer would mean Moog is the only confirmed good. I also believe that Nisman was the tinker so we have just an Alpha and Beta wolf remaining from team evil I believe.

Beta Wolf knows Alpha, Alpha doesn't know Beta.

Good:

1. Wfcmoog

Unknown:

1. Nornironhorn
2. miked2006
3. Lowerrous
4. GoingDown
5. Cassetti’s Beard
6. domthehornet
7. HappyHornet24
8. Horace_goes_up_north
9. steve harrow
10. Optimistichornet
11. BigRossLittleRoss

 

@Diamond can you confirm if masons will be good or very good? I'd like to know if we still have 3 left.

 

Sorry, didnt explain myself properly, was speaking from viewpoint of Day 1 when he was named as Evil by first message.

 

Why do you not think there is a traitor?

 

There is still a traitor as well, who will show up as evil , so three. And of course traitor knows who the wolves are.

 

So the ‘seer’ based that viewing on my use of the word ‘chief?’ In everyday life I use chief very often, it’s a term of respect when I’m speaking to someone more senior than myself. I consider Moog one of the godfathers of the werewolf game, hence tend to listen to his views.

What makes this decision even more ludicrous is that Cassettis beard had already been outed as evil in the previous message. What on earth is the seer doing?

Seer if you read this you are having an absolute mare mate!

 

Haha oops. Blonde moment from me! Good spot.

The only thing we know is that he wasn't the joker. If we kill CB and he is good, then we know one of CB or Nisman was the Tinker (not that it really helps us that much).

I do think that message B is from the seer though.

 

Yeah just checked the rules again - so three evil.

Traitor - This person knows who the werewolf/werewolves are at the start of the game. His goal is to keep the wolf/wolves alive so that the evil characters will win. This is accomplished by posting misleading information about other players and even going so far as to sacrifice himself. If the Wolf Cub is activated then the Traitor will learn who is the new Wolf

 

As far as I’m concerned we have no choice but to vote for Cassetti’s beard today, and I am also certain the second message is from the seer.

If the seer had actually used their common sense and viewed CB we could have made a different decision. The wolf has no idea is CB is good or evil. CB could be a traitor or the beta wolf. The alpha still doesn’t know the identity of either. Therefore we still have as good a chance of getting a wolf by voting CB as anyone else. If CB is good then it guarantees Moog is good, unless CB is a tinker.

 

Oh ok, I interpreted his message as the other way. Tricky to say I guess.

 

Why waste a vote on me - I'm probably dead anyway, the Alpha wolf will kill me tonight regardless won't they, especially knowing the second message is from the Seer.

 

And instantly putting Moog in the firing line if CB ends up being lynched and good.

 

To be fair, I did find that suspicious.

We know that the Beta knows who the Alpha is and will be trying to subtly communicate with them. In previous games, players have replied to mundane points to try and get their attention, use words which hint who they are or have liked their posts.

I also saw that you voted for a good player early yesterday, which is something a traitor would be more likely to do.

However, given I think it's less likely that Moog is evil now, I also think that you are less likely to be evil.

 

So the general consensus seems to be that poetic messages are wolf, 11.09 messages are the seer. This is not proven of course but if we follow this premise momentarily, we can say..

1- Moog is GOOD - Fact
2- CB, BRLR, Horace are 2/11 chance of being EVIL and 9/11 chance of being GOOD. ( This is on assumption that Wolf doesnt yet know who other EVILS are and is guessing)
3- Nisman was TINKER - Fact

Tonight is going to be a difficult lynching. Is there any weight in voting for the least active combined with most misleading post.

 

Fair point, Ive seen you use terminology like that before.

However it does seem a bit weird you only asked Moog what his viewpoint was . Plenty of other experienced players in here. Not finger pointing, genuine question.

 

I know it's cheeky but can someone with more time than me - supposedly working oops - put all the 3 days' messages into one post so we can compare?

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk