Walter Mazzarri - Ex Manager

Changing manager is never a guarantee of success; it is a risk. Do we want to, need to take a risk when we are still potential relegation candidates and only a half dozen or so points from survival. When it looked like we were going to be down with Leicester there was an argument that the risk was worthwhile - reluctantly. Surely nothing can be achieved now by taking a risk.
Most of us believe we will now be safe this season.
At the end of the season it is for the Pozzos to determine whether this year was a success in their terms and to decide if there is a better manager prepared to join us. If there is not then why ditch Mazzarri? If there is then go for it. Managers jobs now are mainly for about a year so let's not cry and pretend it is the end of the world. Nowadays a manager is like a player - bought and sold as required by the club. Not performing? - move him on. Doing well? - extend the contract. It is only we the supporters who have been here for 50+ years and will be till we die.

 

Agreed on the injury front, but it has been mooted that our injury problems might very well be linked to our training regime, and who's in charge of that :doh:

 

How possibly can Janmaats or Zarate's be linked to training issue ?

 

I agree. Sacking Mazzarri now would not be the right thing to do, unless we start to free fall.

For me, he has from now until the end of the season to show real improvement and put his mark on the side. After a two week lay off and a very strong squad to pick from, yesterday was a perfect opportunity to show we are progressing. What followed has to be a massive minus point against him, but he's still got another 12 more games.

The injury to Zarate was unfortunate, but it shouldn't be used as an excuse for why we completely fell apart as a side. We had plenty of quality on the bench to call on yesterday.

I think the squad we have is the strongest, by quite a margin, under the ownership of the Pozzo's but the passing, movement and decision making of the team is worst it's ever been since the Pozzo's take over the club (IMO).

Something is not quite right here as better players should not equate to worse team play.

If we could get Mancini, I'd say that would be a no brainer, and we should not keep the coach just because he's signed a three year deal.

For me, Mazzarri has a hell of a lot to prove in the final 12 games, but at least he's now switched to four at the back, which was something I was critical of for a long time.

I think we look a bit stronger defensively now, but we do ride our luck a hell of a lot. In the last two games alone we could have conceded into double figures when you consider the good chances the opposition have created.

We give the ball away far too cheaply and our performances in the second half of games recently have been extremely poor. Even a 10 man Burnley overran us at the Vic a few weeks ago. It's really not good enough and although results have been largely acceptable, performances have not been anywhere near the standard they need to be.

I'm a firm believer in, if you get the performances right, then results will follow. If we continue to play to the level we are currently at, then survival is not a guarantee by any means. The performance levels we are showing right now will not pick us up too many points. I think the only thing that's elevating us higher than we should be is, a bit of luck and the quality of the individual players we have in our team.

 

On luck. It evens itself out over a season. Otherwise, if you could identify 'lucky clubs' then you'd have to identify an equal number of unlucky ones. I doesn't bear any scrutiny.

 

It os the first time in 12-13 years that I am ptobably not going to renew my season ticket. I know a few others doing the same.

12th or not, this season has been the most dull season yet, especially at home. I cant justify spending so much money on watching a Walter's team.

Dont get me wrong, there are other factors meaning I probably wont renew but the fact Mazzari is one of them says it all.

Home games have been a chore for me the last couple of years and havent particularly liked going as the atmosphere is horrendous, but this style of football is starting to become a deciding factor.

 

When it comes to luck, it's probably like beauty, it's all in the eye of the beholder.

Take one example. The miss at the far post by Antonio, I would say was a lucky let off for Watford. Some may say it was a bad miss by their player, some may say Britos did enough to put him off so it was great defending. Where I consider we were lucky, some may put it down to something else.

Subsequently when Antonio hit both posts most would consider Watford lucky at that moment, but for the ball to come out to Ayew could be considered lucky for them, or maybe great anticipation by their player to react to the situation first.

The header from Fonte produced a "worldy" from Gomes (yet again), and he is paid to save shots, but no one could blame him for conceding that header. It was a save above and beyond the norm, so people can probably agree that that header would usually end up in the back of the net more often than not.

I way I consider lucky breaks, is when the opposition miss a great chance with the goal at his mercy. Basically it's a situation where in the moment we can do little about the situation and are in the at the mercy of the ability of the opposition's player.

I do not believe in the luck evens itself out analogy. I've seen seasons where certain sides get all the bad breaks week after week. Last season in the final run in, Leicester got so many lucky breaks it was ridiculous.

When it comes to luck there is no balancing act. No one is keeping a total of for and against.

 

I empathise.

I paid for a more expensive season ticket this season in the SEJ. Through bad luck, I have only been able to attend 3 home games. I've had the flu, I've had friends weddings, work trips, family events, a number of prebooked holidays - you name it - all land exclusively on the Saturdays on which there is a home game.

However, when I've finally made it to the Vic, what should be a welcome relief turns excruciating. An hour to travel each way, or longer if the trains are down, twenty minute queues for beers, dull negative football and zero atmosphere. I think there's a louder Watford presence when I'm secretly watching the match under the table at my friends wedding. It's all so dull, and a bit of a chore.

On the flip side, I've started to go to more away games and I love the experience so much more. I don't care anywhere near as much if we play badly. It's actually fun.

Yesterday we tried to play football until we scored and Zarate was hurt. Then we hoofed at every opportunity.

Either A) Walt doesn't trust us playing football without a playmaker and plays to the odds
Or B) thinks we can defend for 70 minutes, against a side we were previously matching by being aggressive

 

Of course luck evens itself out as long as the sample size is big enough. It's as simple as tossing a coin. What do you think would be a big enough sample size then? Or are you a 'conspiracy theorist'? That would be different.

 

It's a random event. Coin flicking could land on heads 10 times in a row in theory. What's that has to do with conspiracy I do not know why you would even say that, apart from to debunk and muddy the water to take off topic in a tangent.

I agree you get lucky things and unlucky things, but it's not an even balance over a season. I've seen seasons where so many things have gone against us, and seasons where we could do no wrong. Luck plays a massive part in winning trophies for example.

The only thing I'm saying here, is that luck does not always even itself out. That statement is one of the most overused sayings without any merit.

 

All you're saying is that your sample size is bigger than one season. Fair enough. It might be. The only reason I introduced 'conspiracy' was because, once the sample size is big enough, if things didn't even themselves up over that time period, then the only explanation would be that there was something more sinister going on.

 

this is the problem for me with maz in. the football is turgid at best. hoof hoof. Several people are not renewing their season tickets. this is one reason he must go because fans wont come back. tehn new players wont come and its a domino effect. Its so boring at the moment. Its not good to watch at all. yes the points are nice but mid table each year aint gonna crack it for some. I think we have some great players in teh squad. I think they would play better under a different manager.

 

Nothing sinister at all. The sample size could be as small or as large as you like. Flick a coin 100 times, and it could land on heads and tails 50-50, but it could also be 100-0. When it's a random act anything could happen, and there is absolutely no reason for it to be even.

I do not believe there is some higher universal power that keeps a tot to ensure everything is in perfect balance. If that is one of your beliefs I will not knock it, but I just don't subscribe to it.

 

I don't think you fully understand probability, but it's a small issue.

I will be renewing my season ticket if we look set to stay up, but will probably only go to 5-6 games next season (Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool, Spurs, Man Utd) and hope we get pasted in each of them if Mazz is still in charge.

 

You're fine. An Iguanadon is a species of hypsilophodontid (or very closely related). Veggie or omnivore.

 

I thought it was something you'd need to go to the clinic for to get sorted out.

 

If you actually were one then it would be.

 

I think you need to speak to a statistician. If the coin landed on the same face 100 times in succession then you'd be justified in thinking the coin was 'weighted' and almost certainly correct in that assumption. That would be a conspiracy. The chances of that happening randomly are I believe 1:2 to the power of 98. An enormous number. The bigger the sample size the more you anticipate things approximating to evenhandedess.

 

He is coming back from injury so without proper match fitness always susceptible to pick up another. Don't think would have been picked had prodl or Cathcart been properly match fit, both were touch and go before the game.

 

I know all about probability, but in theory it is possible to have a long run of good luck or a long run of bad luck without there being anything sinister behind it going on. I believe this is the case with Watford this season. They are having a lot of luck in getting some of the results they have been getting.

From performances, we have over achieved to date. I'd say we are about 8 to 10 points better off then we probably should be.

 

Pure luck evens itself out roughly over enough events. If you toss a coin 100 times it is not likely to break 50-50 but the odds of it being outside 60-40 are enormous. Like other things we tend to see things from one perspective - for one person a great goalkeeping save is just that but for someone else it may have been "lucky".

Over a season I suspect luck sometimes helps a team with a few more or less points than they deserve - but pundits who say the league does not lie at the end of the season are probably right - within a couple of places at least.

There is an old saying that goes something like "the harder I practice the luckier I seem to get". Perhaps Watford are doing some things right which get us more luck if that is what we have.

 

I don't have the facts to back this up, but we seem to have gone weeks without conceding from a set piece (free kick / corner) - is this a result of the player's own efforts / WM's coaching / luck?

Mind you, it seems that on many occasions, especially from corners it's our number 9 who gets in the clearing headers.....

 

Yesterday was disappointing. I do think that people over rate our players though. Man for man we aren't better than any of the teams above us apart from Burnley, and Southampton, Leicester and Palace are probably superior to us below. I really didn't enjoy that match yesterday but player talent wise Mazarri is operating at par in my book.

Hopefully we can put on a good display next week.

 

You have a fundamental misunderstanding of the concept of probability. Do you understand why 100-0 Heads is somewhat more unlikely than 50-50 heads and tails?

Edit: That said this is pretty irrelevant to luck in a football season and I would agree with you that we are in credit for luck this season results v performance. Not to the level you think it is, but definitely we have had the rub of the green/Gomes having some stunners etc.

 

I understand probability perfectly. Of course 100-0 is unlikely, but I'm using that as an extreme example. It is entirely possible for a spin of a coin to be a head or a tail. It's a 50/50 chance. It's the same 50/50 chance the next time as well.

You could spin a coin today and it lands on heads.........does it mean if you spin a coin a year later the chances of it being heads again is less likely because a year ago you span a head?

Ok.....I know it's all a bit extreme, but what I'm saying before it all gets lost in the coin analogy, is that it's entirely possible to have a run of good fortune, far outweighing poor luck during a season. I think Watford have benefited from this, this season.

This is why Mazzarri is still in his job, not because of the ever improving performances on the field every week......which is just not occurring.

 

No wonder people can't be arsed with this forum anymore

 

You don't understand sample sizes. That is clear from your posts when you say things like "the sample size could be as small or as large as you like". But no matter.

As you say it's pretty irrelevant in this football discussion and just clouds things. As I said in my edited post I do agree that we have had the run of the green this season. Not 10 points as you say, but it has certainly been worth 4/5 I think.

 

An outstandingly short memory. Quique was worse.

 

Yes that's fine. I think we're somewhere around 8 to 10 points better off than we should be, which I believe is fair. Even going with your view, taking 5 points off will have us nervously looking over our shoulders.

We have to be thankful things have gone our way this season, for I really do not see had we been in a fight at the bottom, we'd get out of it.

I see the views on Mazzarri tend to range from get him out now, to let's wait until the summer and see. Very few fans are actually backing him and think he's the right man for the job.

 

I am in the wait till summer camp. He should be able to achieve some encouraging performances now that we have a buffer to the relegation zone and competition for places. I do expect him to do so though so he has my confidence.

 

Yep. Away games are far better.

 

I'm with you in the respect he should stay until the summer, barring a total collapse. To have my confidence he's not shown anything to make me think he's on the right track. There have been far too many poor performances. Before, fans were making excuses for him such as the injuries, but I knew the problem was deeper than that.

Now we have a much stronger squad, but the poor performances still continue. We've had a two week break, plenty of time to get players rested and to get ideas across, but yesterday showed the same problems as other games.

3 more wins shouldn't be beyond us, even with the problems we have, but we'll just be limping over the line. Less points and no cup run as last season, which was not enough for Flores to keep his job.

Does anyone really expect Watford to beat 45 points? That's 5 more wins.......I can't see it myself.

 

I do not agree. I think we are playing a lot worse for a longer run of games than Flores. Towards the end of his tenure, yes the players had "gone", but while they thought he was the boss, Watford played a lot better than they are now, with a far more limited squad.

Put it this way, give Flores the squad we have now, I think we'd be doing far better.......but then it cannot be proved....just my opinion.

 

This is not meant as a diss, or wanting to start you off on one of your rants again, but your opinion on pretty much anything means zero to me, personally.