Will We Make The Play Offs?

Not with my Dungeons and Dragons twenty sided die

 

Not ridiculing it just seemed strange that two very similar sides that have both beaten us at home this season would have different predictions. You've explained it so that's fine. It was only a comment and nothing vindictive

 

I'm more optimistic than I was before the Reading match which we didn't win. Really impressed by Porteus and Araujo - and they play in positions where we desperately needed an upgrade.

 

Long Answer number 2: No - I predict 8th on 69 points.

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/ Accessed 17:00 6/2/23

I have taken the probability of each match outcome and muliplied that by the points for each outcome.
From this I have produced this predicted end of season points table:

1 Burnley 96
2 Sheffield Utd 87
3 Middlesboro 74
4 ***** Town 73
5 WBA 73
6 Millwall 71
7 Norwich 69
8 Watford 69
9 Sunderland 66
10 Blackburn 64

(And yes, it did take me ages to input the 100's of pieces of data. For tied points totals I've gone to the non-rounded figures.)

 

Who?

 

You are aware that 538 also have points predictions? They also put us on 69.

 

At least the number of points we’ll finish on will be a source of entertainment then.

 

No I wasn't... D'Oh!

Well at least my spreadsheet was right.

 

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/
Here you can predict all remaining games and it gives you a final table. I did it and we made the play offs and the scum finished 11th although in fairness I can't bring myself to predict them to win a game! I felt I was fair on us and all other results though.

 

Thank goodness. Wasn’t looking forward to us losing to Luton in the playoffs

 

To answer the original question. No, we won't. Thankfully.

 

Over the past 10 seasons teams in 6th place have won at least 20 games. We would need to win at least 8 or half of our games to be in with a chance to reach the play offs. Hopefully with returning squad players feeling like new signings we can push on but the championship is so volatile that anything could happen.

 

I can't envisage 8 more wins.

 

It’s win win really for the forum activity

if we do unbelievably win the play offs then the blind faith supporters will get to say I told you so for a period of 6 months, we may retain Pedro, our finances may look rosier for a short while and then normal service will resume as we pick up our first point in late November with a squad of disinterested players

if we don’t then those longing for a take over by anybody will get to say I told you so before realising they were right and our club has to sell everything they own whilst plummeting into league 1

happy days

 

Was just looking over the transfers since Pozzo took over and i can’t believe that I used to believe they had this amazing scouting network. The approach is scattergun at best and basically buy in bulk and some s h i t will stick if we throw enough of it at the wall. The Brazilian scout is paying off, but there are some absolute gems in there. Anyone remember Diakite? Merkel? Mujangi Bia? Acuna? It’s no different this year with Bayo and Manaj. Next year and the year after will be exactly the same.

 

Cannot believe you forgot Fanchone. Do better.

 

I cannot see us making the playoffs and forsee financial meltdown in the summer.
Bottom 6 next season if we are still in business.

 

Where can you see a list? I'd love to look at our activity over the past 4 seasons.

 

42 would be better in my opinion!

 

Not with these owners, we’re very fortunate to have them.

 

That's a very deep thought.

 

"Wretched ".

How's Ilkley Tennis Club?

Happy days spent there at the tournament, Jeremy Bates, Andrew Castle and Sue Barker draining the club of chardonnay!

 

I wouldn’t know I’m afraid. I’m not a tennis player. Mrs Ilkley Orn might be able to shed some light. She grew up round here and often mentions the club as being one of the centres of Ilkley social life.

 

Going back to the original question...

Long answer number 3: No.

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/
Accessed: 13/2/23
I have graphed the end of season points predictions from FiveThirtyEight, as recorded for 25 dates from pre-season to today.
For clarity I've just shown the current top 10 clubs.
For Watford I have also plotted a 4th order polynomial trend line (a fancy smooth curve).

I note that the change in our predicted points from pre-season to today is -15 (68-83). Only Norwich have done worse (-16).
Also, that drop is pretty evenly split over the two time periods 19/7/22 to 5/10/22 (-8) and 5/10/22 to 13/2/23 (-7).
(5/10/22 being the first recorded prediction date after 27/9/22)

 

Club's section on transfermarkt has a transfers/activity page in and out you can filter for each season.

 

If we want to make the playoffs, bottom line is we need to win 10 out of 14.

 

5 straight wins and we are right back in it.

 

Yep, at least 9 wins or equivalent. It’s not going to happen for us this season. Better come to terms with it. It’s not impossible of course, but we’re not good enough to win that many games IMO unfortunately.

 

13 games to go. Only 3 are against sides in the current top 10; Sheff Utd, L*ton and Sunderland, all away from home. And with our injury crisis easing, getting JP, Louza, Sema back on the pitch, a decent looking centre half pairing, it's looking a bit more positive. In another world we may have won at Reading, and held on against Burnley, and with that scrappy win last night our form wouldn't look as patchy.

It was around this time 2 seasons ago we went on a run of only losing once in 11/12 games with 9 or 10 wins thrown in. I don't think we've particularly looked great for large parts of the season, and we've a tough game Saturday, but hopefully Bilic, with a mostly fit squad can get this group playing with a bit of confidence and consistency and we can go on a little run to solidify a playoff spot.

 

YES I DO!!!

 

I will second that!

 

Is that an answer to the question "Will we make the play-offs?" or has someone just accused you of not using the emoji enough ?

 

Very negative, I’m surprised at you.

 

I think we will, just as with our key players back we have a lot of routine home games to pick up points. Albeit I think it will be close and we'll probably finish 6th meaning a really tough game and 2nd leg at Boro. The prize of somehow winning that would be losing to either Scum or Millwall at Wembley.