Werewolf - Road To Qatar - Day 1

Discussion in 'Werewolf: The forum game' started by Otter, Nov 16, 2022.

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Day 1 lynching

Poll closed Nov 16, 2022.
  1. AshdonWFC

    7.1%
  2. Burnsy

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. Cthulhu

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. domthehornet

    7.1%
  5. HappyHornet24

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. Harrow Orn

    85.7%
  7. Horace_goes_up_north

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. miked2006

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. nornironhorn

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. Optimistichornet

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  11. Steve Leo Beleck

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  12. TomWatfordFC

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  13. tonycotonstache

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  14. wfcmoog

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  15. wfcSinatra

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  16. With A Smile

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
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  1. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Ashdon is always evil
     
    miked2006, Cthulhu and AshdonWFC like this.
  2. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    It's the same on Day 1 every time. The named players are somewhat random and it doesn't tell us a lot, but it tells us at least something.

    To vote for one of the unnamed players at this stage doesn't make sense, as whilst it doesn't tell us a lot to eliminate one of the named players necessarily, it still tells us more than lynching a random good player.

    Unless someone else has more or less outed themselves as evil in their game play, we should choose between Norn and Ashdon, as harsh as that is, to at least get some intelligence about the messages.

    Anyone advising or voting for randoms should incur suspicion as it seems to intend to lead us to confusion.
     
  3. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    I hear what you’re saying, moog, but I’m in two minds about this. At this stage, by lynching one of the named people, we only learn something if they are named evil. This is unlikely to happen, unless the wolf has been very unlucky and randomly named an evil player good. So, assuming we lynch Ashdon for example and Ashdon is good - what have we learnt? Nothing. It we lose a good werewolf player for nothing. Day 1 is always a lottery - I’d rather get rid of someone who has been inactive and so potentially not a great loss to Team Good anyway.
     
    Cthulhu likes this.
  4. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    There’s certainly not a lot to go on today!
     
  5. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    A fine line to be trodden.

    I can see what moog is saying - and this is always the Day 1 dilemma - but going unnamed and potentially striking an evil seems more likely than either myself or norn actually being evil. As I say, from past experience, it would take a ballsy Wolf to name an Evil on Day 1, so I’m not surprised the messages have come through how they have.
     
  6. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Harrow appears to be the only one who's forgotten to play. As per, Otter's rules, he'll be killed off anyway.

    Agree with giving people every chance to post as work can be busy but if it gets close to the end of the day, then I'll vote for him as it is getting rid of someone that is going anyway.

    We don't know anything for certain at this stage and the probability of randomly lynching an evil is low so early in the game so makes sense to get rid of a person that had forgotten to play rather than (probably) getting rid of an innocent member of Team Good on Day 1.
     
  7. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Reservist

    We've had attempted castrating gone wrong so I'd suggest anyone wolf or not keep their balls out of Optimistichornets sightlines!
     
    Optimistichornet likes this.
  8. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    We shouldn't @ any absent players. If they miss out, that's on them and it doesn't hurt Team Good to have the inactive players thinned out, if that's what Otter decides.
     
  9. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I guess if Ashdon or myself were killed and were named evil, then we would know for certain which message was from the seer and which was from the wolf. This would be useful in terms of deciphering future messages.

    The question is, do we think we are more likely to get lucky and get an evil by picking one of the remaining 14 players (all of whom are complete unknowns), or do we think we are more likely to pick an evil from Ashdon & myself - one of whom is definitely good, and the other has been named good by the alpha so is unlikely to be the alpha (but not definite as the alpha could have named themselves).

    As it stands, I'll be voting Harrow as they look likely to be killed anyway.
     
  10. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    On a further note, there's always a chance Ashdon or I could be the seer - one of us has been named by the wolf who won't know if we are good or evil.

    There is no chance Harrow is the seer (unless they weirdly are following along, sending the seer message, but then not posting in the thread).

    I'd rather vote Harrow than Ashdon in that case, as we won't have any risk of lynching our seer if we lynch Harrow.
     
  11. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I see you have went very early with your vote moog.

    Why Ashdon as opposed to me?
     
  12. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    There's literally no sense in likely lynching a random good player ahead of someone that has forgotten the game is on and is going to be killed off anyway!
     
    TomWatfordFC likes this.
  13. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    I’m always evil to be fair.
     
    miked2006 likes this.
  14. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    That doesn’t mean I’m not hurt though, Moog. :(
     
  15. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Final call for @Harrow Orn - speak up or you're likely for the gallows.
     
  16. domthehornet

    domthehornet Moderator Staff Member

    I'm leaning towards the first message being from an experienced player and more likely the seer and the second message being from an inexperienced wolf. Unfortunately at this moment in time it means naff all without another days messages to compare them too.

    I think a vote on an inactive player is a wasted vote as they will be killed off anyhow but I also think it's a risk in voting for the two named players as we know one of them is definitely good. That being said who on earth do we go for?
     
  17. domthehornet

    domthehornet Moderator Staff Member

    Mind not voting for Harrow would lead to at least one good death no matter what. This could go right down to the wire waiting on Harrow to post.
     
  18. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    Again I’m going to leave the whole experienced/inexperienced things alone. We’ve all played before really. It offers little in analysis in my opinion.

    if inactives are voted off anyway no point lynching them either
     
  19. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    I won’t be voting norn given my instinctive reaction is that message 1 is from the Seer.

    I won’t be voting for myself either, obviously.

    I will be voting for Harrow unless he kicks up a fuss sooner rather than later.
     
  20. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    I'd agree that the 1st message looks more likely to be the seer, just because they have left a code in there. I think nornironhorn has a point about the 2nd message being written as a draft and added after the seer's message

    My son has football at 5.30 so I'll have to vote by then, so at the moment going for Harrow or Ashdon (sorry)
     
  21. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Bar a miracle, I'm voting Harrow.

    He's either apathetic, pre-occupied or tardy. Traits I neither respect or are beneficial to survive a paranormal attack in a Qatari desert.
     
    Burnsy and AshdonWFC like this.
  22. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Are we more likely to lynch a good player or a bad player at the moment (probability-wise)? It's more likely to be a good player - 16 players so presume 2-3 wolves plus a traitor. So picking a random probably gives you a 75%+ chance of taking out a good.

    If there's a villager who is (also probably a good) but going to be killed anyway for inactivity, then surely it's better to bump them off???
     
    nornironhorn likes this.
  23. domthehornet

    domthehornet Moderator Staff Member

    If Harrow doesn't post by 7:30, I'll be voting for him. We can at least rule him out as being the Alpha as he has been inactive today.
     
  24. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Unfortunately I’m going to have to leave it there in the village today.

    I will be voting Harrow on the basis that we have nothing else to go on at this stage. I think norn is likely good as that message is most likely from the seer. I have no clue about ashdon, but again I think it is unlikely he is evil unless the wolf is unlucky.

    Harrow is the nothing to lose option here really.
     
  25. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I will likely be voting in the next 30ish minutes and I'm going to be going for Harrow as it stands.

    Seeing as I'm fairly confident message 1 is the seer (unless the wolf was brave and went first and named me), the author of message 2 is the alpha and therefore knows I'm a guaranteed good player... If you are out there Guardian, I would appreciate a visit tonight as I'm an easy target for a wolf!
     
  26. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Purely a 50/50 shot for me and I just felt it was gonna be Ashdon who edged it, probably on the basis of prejudice from previous games.

    I had meetings 4-5.30 and after that, I'm gonna be logging off and shepherding the kids around, so could easily forget to vote. As it is, one of my meetings ended early (waste of time) so I had 5 min.

    To Nornironhorn's point, as an inactive player, whilst Harrow is unlikely to be the seer, based on that same logic, he also can't be the Alpha wolf, surely?
     
  27. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    In hindsight, I would've gone for Harrow too. He's had more than enough time to join the thread, even if busy today, so we lose nothing by getting rid of him and waiting for tomorrow's messages to shed more light.
     
  28. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    I’m going to watch Phoenix in Brixton tonight so likely I’m going to have to vote between 7pm and 8pm else I’ll forget!
     
  29. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Reservist

    Off to hockey with my kids. Have to vote early. Makes sense to take off a non committal player
     
  30. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    actually that is great logic.
    Lynch the inactive
     
  31. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    Sorry Harrow

    With nothing else to go on there is little other option
     
  32. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Good point - I've gone for Harrow.
     
  33. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    I’m going with SLBs logic and statistical approach. That way only one good dies probably maybe we get really really lucky.

    voted harrow
     
  34. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Sorry Harrow, but we’re always likely to vote off a Good player on day 1 so I would rather it be an inactive one.
     
  35. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Following similar logic as others, I have voted for Harrow. Let's hope we get lucky!
     
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