Is this as good as it gets under Pozzo?

Most of his issues were in 1st half when he was sometimes left stuck in the middle of 3 Soton players; not his fault really.
His performance on the left of a back 3 in the 2nd half pleasantly surprised me, allowing for a couple of hair-brained sliding challenges when he'd over-committed himself.
I think he has definitely shown a lot of improvement & consistency in the last few weeks.

 

Perhaps he just enjoys the challenge of running a football club in a manner that allows him to prove his mastery of the strategies required to keep such as little old Watford as an established Prem club.

 

Getting 7th and winning the FA Cup probably is as good as it gets. Maybe some more consistent cup semi's/ finals, and a Europa League run.

There's too much money floating around at the big clubs to ever truly compete, except in exceptional circumstances.

So I'd say we are close to our peak. However, I wouldn't say it's all downhill from here. We could feasibly continue to secure a top half finish and go on a decent cup run more consistently.

 

I'm sure he does. But enough to risk a business worth c£300m now becoming worth £25m in the champ ?

 

Depends on how much he trusts his own "skill-set".

 

I think you're being harsh on Masina. And Sema was not signed to be anything other than "a better back up at wide midfield than we've had before"; a marginal upgrade on a back-up player at minimal outlay.
If we lose 2 of Doucoure, Deulofeu & Pereyra I'd expect some more serious investment in their replacements.

 

If we are top value now, we are not going to be that easy to sell owing to the fact we are & never will be a glamour club.

There are far better options out there to owners wanting to invest & Pozzo could have bought a whole host of other similar sized London suburban clubs at the time of purchasing WFC.

Gino knows he will never get any 'real or substantial' pressure to invest whilst at Watford, no toxic supporters groups etc, we by & large just want to keep seeing PL football whether that's 7th or 17th place.

I have always thought about Gino's exit strategy in terms of what will he do when his Dad is not around to control Udinese. Will he have the ability or realistic ambition to control both operational entities successfully, especially given they are the ones that need all the help they can get currently & that's with his experienced old man at the helm. Could be a significant turning point in our history when that situation plays out in the future.

 

Depends on how important c£200m is to him more-like. I don't believe he would be daft enough to assume "his skill-set" will be enough to guarantee that relegation is impossible. It's more likely that they are just waiting for a silly offer.

 

We are at top value now and should be pretty easy to sell if he wanted to. We are an established prem club and there aren't many of them around for potential investors. Not everyone can buy a top 6 club.

 

Got to wait for the player model to start working really. Got some fantastic 19-20 year olds on our books who probably will make the step up soon. Exciting times ahead and a good Europa cup run coming next season.

 

Certainly see that logic, but if you are an investor surely you choose any of the Championship clubs for a mere fraction of the price?

We are not so established that we infallible to the drop, especially so if it's a non football entity that's considering our purchase.

 

When that scouting network goes, the international connections that come with Pozzo also leave with Pozzo.

You are then just competing in the prime market place & paying top dollar for average players like everyone else.

Could foresee the empire crumbling quite quickly.

 

Is it as good as it gets ?

I guess the true answer will only be known sometime between 7pm and 8pm on Saturday 18th May !

 

I'm pretty much going to repeat what Miked said in that if we finish 7th and win the cup that is pretty much the pinnacle of what we can achieve but that doesn't mean we can't repeat it and become a team that consistently finishes top 10 and does well in the cups.
what will be the test is if we lose Doucoure, Pereyra and Delefeou
I can't see the club allowing that to happen but I definitely feel as though Pereyra will leave. Doucoure is an interesting one as he wants to play Champions League football but I presume he means one of the big teams that have a chance of getting far in the competition and not just a team like Basel. if that's the case, is he good enough to play for PSG, Liverpool, Juventus, Real Madrid etc? Are any of these type of clubs going to try and sign him? Maybe as a back up but then we wouldn't receive a high enough bid. I wouldn't be surprised if he was here next season. Delefeou clearly thinks he should be playing at a higher level or certainly a bigger club. If AC Milan came looking then I can see him throwing his toys out of the pram if we played hardball with them.
I don't feel as though Gino is in it just for the money otherwise he would have gone by now

 

Some good thoughts. Nothing lasts forever, however, I'd be surprised if Gino ever cashed in on Watford while the TV rights are so high. It's a real cash cow if you do things correctly, and he has certainly proved he can develop a decent team as well as make money.

Udinese is his first love and of the Pozzo family. That can never change, as it's in the blood. Watford will make money for the group and Udinese will benefit indirectly from that. It's all one wallet after all.

If something changed, similar to the collapse with On Digital, then he would be on his way no doubt. Gino is not a fan as EJ was/is, but no doubt the club has grown on him and I'd trust him never to dump on the club even if he left.

There could be a releasing of shares, such as the Prolific Media Holdings bid last year who tried to purchase 37.5% of the club for £125m. Gino would still be the owner but would have a lot of cash to invest in Udinese or other projects.

We should enjoy it while we can, as the owner we have now is perfect for a club like Watford. We're not attractive or historic enough for the real big money men, so the next best option is to find an owner of modest means (in football terms) but who knows what he is doing in the business world of football. Those types are rare. We are lucky.

 

It depends what you are looking for as a potential buyer. If you are looking to make money and can get any club into the prem from the champ you will increase the value of your investment by 10x+. However many have bought into champ clubs over the years, thrown money at them and failed to achieve promotion.
However if you are a mega rich investor from the Far East or Middle East who actually isn't interested in looking to make money but want to be part of the exclusive group who "own a premier league club" then we are a reasonable target within easy reach of London. Yes we might get relegated under the Pozzos but a seriously wealthy investor would probably just assume they can throw money at the club to avoid that issue.

 

It's NOT a cash cow unless you are a champions league team or risk failing to reinvest in the squad to retain status.
We are not making money, we are losing money and increasing our loans just to remain at this level !

The values put on prem clubs outside the top 4/6 cannot be justified by profit and cashflow. The value is all in the desires of the mega-rich to be part of an exclusive high-profile club.

 

4 years before that we were on the brink of administration with HMRC debt and a pending points deduction waiting in the wings. League One football and obscurity beckoned.

4 years on from the Brighton win, we are in the FA Cup final with a strong possibility of 7th place and Europe.

I really can't believe how dramatically our fortunes have changed.

 

That's not entirely true. We are not losing money in the way you think. That would be unsustainable and we'd go bust within a year or so. That's clearly not going to happen.

Earning over £100m in a year for a football club of Watford's size is cash cow proportions....or whatever phrase you want to call it.

I wouldn't get too tied up with the loans. It's a legal way for Gino to make some income on the 5% interest he charges, but it's mainly for cash flow purposes. It's like having shares in a company of say £50k, but you cannot cash them in just yet because you are in some type of company share save scheme. You want to buy a new car. You know you have the money, but cannot not get to it just yet as it's tied up, so you get a loan to tide you over and pay it back later. These are not loans we cannot pay back, and that's the important difference.

 

I think in May when we finish 11th and lose in a record shattering defeat to Man City in the Cup final, our value will plummet.

Gino should cash in now.

 

Pozzo's main assets are that 1) they are come from 'footballing stock' & 2) have a uniquely dedicated full time scouting structure which is a separate business in it's own right. Parachute those qualities into any club regardless of division & you should do well. As they have demonstrated.

If you are a Far East mega rich investor that are as you say in your example 'doing if for the money' doubt you would you then go on to choose to buy a club that attract a fan base of about 15-20k (in the PL) & 10-15k (in the Championship). In that case you would be better off going for a club that's just been promoted?

 

That could be the crux of the matter...if enough of them step up.

 

The accounts are wrong then, thank goodness for that. It IS a cash cow afterall.

 

I've just worked out how much we'll get if we finish 7th and win the FA Cup. Going on last seasons figures we'd get £122,343,729 from the league and £3,600,000 for winning the FA Cup. That's a grand total of £125,943,729.

Add to that a summer and winter transfer trading profit of around £30m, you can see we're going to be in a very healthy financial position in the summer. There is a real possibility that Lukebakio will go for over £20m too, which would be very good business.

So before we've even looked at selling Doucoure, Pereyra and Deulofeu we'd have around £176m gross profit from this campaign. If we sold those three players I would expect to add another £90m to the pot.

That's just outstanding really.

 

Also helps you pay less tax.

 

Absolutely......big profits mean large tax bills and no one wants that.

 

We lost money last year and will lose money this year unless we sell 1 or 2 of our top players. The sale of Richarlison covers some of last years losses. You are mixing up revenues, profits and cashflows. The revenues are great, really great, but unless we create a transfer surplus the revenues will be mopped up by player and agent costs as last year.

 

And with Wonga going bust, Gino can't get another payday loan to tide us over.

 

The loans are to provide cash to cover what would otherwise be a cashflow deficit leaving us unable to pay wages and transfer instalments.

 

No chance we will lose money this season. If all the good things happen, then we'll stand to make an additional £20m on last season's domestic campaign. We've made a significant trading profit on the transfer window as well.

Where our unfashionable status lets us down is in the facility fees. The figure given for each club is £12,523,394. This has a 10 match floor, so any club under 10 games shown on live TV still gets that standard £12.5m figure. Over and above 10 games you earn an extra £1,185,000. That becomes significant if you're one of the big boys being shown 28 times per season. They would get £33,853,394 which is a whopping £21,330,000 more than us.

This season we've been shown 10 times on live TV (excluding cup matches), so we're only entitled to the basic £12.5m, whereas Wolves, Leicester, Newcastle and Everton have been shown 17-19 times. They get more money as they are more "box office" than we are.

If we make a trading loss this season, then something would be seriously wrong with our business model.

 

FA Cup prize money is cumulative, so we'd get more than £3.6m overall for winning the trophy.

 

Mahrez played for Leicester for another season and a half before asking for a transfer to Man City. Then he got he hump when it was blocked so that he had to stay until last summer.

 

Even better. So we're guaranteed £4, 995,000 even if we lose or £6,795,000 of we win. A possible total season revenue of £132,738,729.

 

This season has come about more by luck than judgement. Our wage bill reflects the pozzo's ambition for the club. What does that put us in, 16th place wasnt it? Anything over and above that is a happy and accidental bonus.

Next season after the sale of assets we'll be back to where we belong. And I suspect a relegation battle beckons as the players that are left will think they are better than they are. Most of our squad are 16th place standard at best.