Predict the date of the next general election in the UK and win bragging rights in the Politics section if you’re right! You can choose any date from 26 January 2024 (which is the earliest it could be if Rishi announced it tomorrow) to 28 January 2025 (the latest possible date by law). Convention puts elections on a Thursday but no law says they must be. Local elections in England and Wales are on 2 May. And if you think events abroad might influence the choice, the US Presidential election is on 5 November. You can choose the same date as a previous poster if you want.
Lets face it few if any Tories are going to get back in, so what's the point of campaigning. I'd be arranging as much paid holiday as possible. They come back from their summer break starting 23rd July during the 1st week of September. Probably the 2nd although I don't think it's been confirmed yet. They have 25 days campaigning before an election. That makes the first Thursday possible 26th September and my guestimate but would have gone Oct 3rd if it wasn't already taken.
My initial thought was that Sunak would leave it as long as possible, but on reflection I thought he may not wish to take a drubbing in the local elections first. Better to pretend immigration has been sorted, give out a few quid in bribes in the March Budget and get on with it in May. He’s a wealthy man who could do anything else he chooses, in most any Country he wishes. Why spin it out and take a year of further humiliations from the nutters in his Party?
Sunak indicates that his ‘working assumption’ is a General Election in the second half of the year. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67883242
Tricky one for Sunak. So many factors to take into account. The initial Covid inquiry report will likely be published before the summer and it'll likely be damning for Sunak. Even if they have an uptick in the polls, the Conservatives will take a hammering in the local elections in May which will be hard to spin. And despite the fact the media has already mobilised to tell people over and over that it'll be close (the narrative is already that it could be a hung parliament) there are still just about enough people who will see and feel the evidence for themselves. Everything costs more with the energy cap rising too. A trip to the supermarket costs and arm and a leg. 1.5m households are going to experience some significant mortgage pain in the first half of this year. The tax cuts might have an impact for them but that's because there'll be almost no one pointing out that every giveaway has a massive cost in the end. The question for Sunak is how much more can he 'achieve' for himself and his cronies in his remaining time in No.10? The question for the wider party is do they want to be in a position to be back in power in five years' time or five-and-a-half years' time from now?
