The last time we got in the playoffs (v Hull 07/08) the number of goals we scored was 69. We've already netted 50........:biggrin:.........where will it end?
If we beat Cardiff, I will start to believe that we can get an auto spot with a few additional loanees. If we draw, I think we can get playoffs no problem. If we lose it's not necessarily the worst thing in the world but our home run-in is now (relatively) easy as long as we don't get complacent or over confident. I just want to keep riding the rollercoaster.
Its just another game. No more important or less important than any other. If we win, it just means we have stopped Cardiff going three points further away, that's all.
This ^ ... and this ^ We should not be caring or focussing on anything but the 52 points mark - Cardiff is Cardiff, 90 minutes, 11 guys vs another 11, 3 points up for grabs. It makes no difference whether we beat a team like Cardiff or someone like Preston - at the end of the day, both on recent form would be down the bottom. Just a bit surprised we'll have played Cardiff 2 times in little over a month.
Malky said last week that the aim was 52 points first of all and that was the main priority. If we get that, he said the next aim is 75 points, which would get a play off place and then so on. Everyone needs to be realistic, I still remember the run last season
imo it does make a difference in beating carduff than preston. if we beat carduff we get three points and they get none and we go above em and have a game in hand. If we then lose to Preston we are still above carduff. If we lose to carduff it will be hard for us to go above them even if we were to beat preston. a draw and we would need to beat preston. Ipswich can be used as the other option of a game in hand who both are holding no threat at this time to a play off place. on the other hand - to avoid relegation it is of course better to lose to carduff and hope we beat ipshyte and or preston - but hey ho - in the first place if we beat carduff we still get 3 points and other teams in relegation zone are likely to be further a drift. What i really do not want to see on Saturday - is Carduff 5 wfc 1 or such like stuffing.
So Malky has been with the club long enough now to have caught the Hornet Pessimism bug! Not singling you out here matimbers... but its hard to imagine any other set of supporters who would be thinking in terms of survival right now. And since when did 52 points exactly become the benchmark for non relegation?
I think there has only been one team relegated with 52 points in the last 10 years. Or something along those lines anyway. 99% of the time with 52 points you are safe.
That would be 90% of the time then 48 points would have seen you alright last season.. 47 the season before.. 53 before that.. 43 before... etc etc. Point is that its a variable amount and none of us can predict the future..not even Malky! Personally i'd say the term 'enough points to survive' covers it better.
Neither do I PYA, however, I was merely making the point that you can only beat what is put in front of you - and a win against anyone is a win. But yes, I appreciate that who you beat impacts upon the table. Perhaps Hull and Doncaster would have been more appropriate in the analogy - Mid-Table obscurity 'n all.
But.. because the statement was "99% of the time with 52 points you are safe" Surely its the time element that determines the percentage? ie years. I think i'm right in saying that for your calculations to be correct, the statement would have needed to make reference to the number of teams that were safe with 52 points.
Actually, it'd be 96.7% of the time - 3 teams go down each year, over 10 years means that 29/30 have had less than 52 points. So, 96.7% of the time, 52 points is enough. EDIT: Didn't realise there was a second page. Now I feel stupid.
Dont.. its irrelevant anyway! The only point i was really trying to get across, was that in the last few years people have started stating that x amount of points will see you safe or x amount of points will see you in the play offs/promoted. No one ever spoke like that if you go back a few years.. and maybe thats because they realised that the number of points required was a variable and not a constant. I'm sure some people these days actually think that if you get 52 points you are guaranteed safety!
52 points then see what happens after that. __________________ Im not the only one who thinks this confusing?
