I saw this on the Watford Mailing List. It is an article from Betfair. http://betting.betfair.com/football/the-betfair-contrarian/why-watford-cannot-win-the-cha.html Why Watford cannot win the Championship 9 November 2007 | About The Betfair Contrarian | Click here to view market The Betfair Contrarian is at it again, this time arguing a case for top of the table Watford not finishing top of the pile come May The Contrarian: Why Watford cannot win the Championship Just as certain words are inherently amusing, like "gusset" or "woodcock", other expressions never fail to drain the spirit, like "Watford." The idea that anything good, exciting or even moderately enjoyable could ever emerge from Watford places enormous stress on the brain, but why? Of course, Watford is just as capable of generating goodness, excitement and enjoyability as the next suburb, but for some reason, like it or not, it has become shorthand for a black hole of dullness. The neighbourhood football team is doing its darnedest this season to add a little fairydust by sitting proudly at the top of the Championship with 11 wins and 2 draws in their first 15 games, which is most praiseworthy considering last year's emasculating experience in the Premiership, but lap it up while you can, people of South Herts, because it cannot last. Try as they might, Watford cannot and will not win the Championship, not even with their eight point lead, for the following reasons... (you can lay Watford to win the Championship on betfair at 2.08). 1. Because they never have before. Since the establishment of the second division in 1892, Watford have never won it. 2. Early form is a really poor indicator of the eventual winner. In the last eight years, only one team has been top at this stage of the season and still been top at the end of it: Portsmouth in 2002/3. Every other leader has squandered their lead, some so badly that they had to endure the embarrassment of the playoffs, while others, such as Cardiff last year, went so far off the rails they didn't even make the playoffs at all. 3. Watford have been here before and it turned out badly. The last time Watford finished bottom of the Premier League in 1999/2000, they also found themselves at the top of the second division fifteen games into the following season, exactly as they are now. After a stellar start, unbeaten with 12 wins and 3 draws (even better than this season), they vacated the top spot one game later and went into a tail spin, losing seven and drawing one of their next eight games. They finished ninth. 4. Rarely do teams follow up a bottom place finish with a top place finish. In the last eight seasons, only one team has recovered from a humiliating rock bottom finish in the Premiership to win the second division the following season (Sunderland last year). Of the 14 teams who have been relegated at the bottom of the Premiership (not including Watford last year), only five have ever gone straight back up, with three winning the title outright. And Watford still have time to repeat Swindon's achievement of 1994/5, when they managed to get relegated again. 5. Watford do not have superhuman powers of endurance. No team in the last eight seasons has led the second division after fifteen games and held that lead uninterrupted all the way to the end of the year. 6. Defence is everything, and Watford don't have it. Watford have kept just five clean sheets so far. Only three teams who have gone on to win the division since 1992/3 have kept fewer clean sheets. Watford have also conceded three goals in one game, something that hadn't happened by this stage to 11 of the 15 teams who've won the division since 1992/3. They have conceded four in one game as well - only two of the eventual winners have conceded a three and a four (or more) in their first 15 games. In fact, a leaky old defence is a really poor strategy at this stage: in the last ten years only two teams have won the division after conceding more goals at this stage (16). Sorry Watford, but thanks for trying. PYA - Now put the argument against this. King James - You have the right to reply
What a load of boll0cks. We are making history right now. What has happened to us in the past is irrelevant. Just another person who hates us doing well.
reading were just behind at this stage... they didnt however mention that none of these teams were 8 points clear. Aidy should read this to the players today, i cant remember who but someon did it before and inspired the team. also - until we did, no one had ever gone up after being fvourites for relegation, in their first season as manager with such a small budget Why would you listen to a betting company anyway - they're trying to get your money!
I think Reading did it last season when Jol turned around before Spurs played them and said they weren't good enough to stay up...I think Reading beat them 4-1 or something...so obviously fired them up! A good idea to stick it on the dressing room wall!
Berko - i think the guy who wrote this has only one valid point - at evens wfc are probably worth laying and buying at higher over next month. However he does not say who will win it or who is capable of winning it. at evens one wouldn't be backing wfc ( if a proper gambler) at this time. happy with my 10's at start of season and is a free bet now with charlton and wba nicely in green as well. WFC champions 2007/8. He misses out however a lot of points which i just cannot be bothered to repeat as to why watford will win the league this season.
aidy put in a stat in his 3cr interview - avg 2 points per game will get promotion - we're ahead at present...
It's interesting to note that the other 3 articles are all written by a fanatical WBA fan, then this one that specifically says Watford can't win it is written by Mr Anonymous. I wonder?
Writing this on holiday in Spain but honestly if that is what this guy believes then let him lay us on Betfair at better than 2.0 and see how much he gets taken for. I´m more than happy to add to my more than substantial position at the right price. He is missing one really significant point about this division this year, it is very average and won´t take a lot of winning. We will win it, but should beware of complacency for next season off the back of this. Back to the bar and another few G & T´s, well I´m on holiday. Cheers all.
another thing he didnt mention is none of the other teams were o many points clear, we arent just top after 15, we'll garenteed be top after 17, and worst after 18 games is 2nd on goal difference. and saying the top teams at this stage never win it is rubbish - its obviously better to be top than 2nd, and have the most points possible, we're on target for about 100 points at this rate by the way
He actually makes good points... and the best point is that we have done this before (actually, we did better) and we managed to finish the season outside the playoffs let alone winning the division. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so we COULD win the division this year. However, past performance is usually a good guide to what is likely in the future... we have had a good start, but the usual warnings are that we could hit bad form or some injury problems. Having said that, we have had bad games already and have bounced back. We have also got some injury problems but our playing depth has allowed us to win games without Francis or Williams. With Ellington on the bench, our frontline should cope okay with an injury or two and we do have some decent backups in defence.
Is it really worth reading something by a no-mark who's previous two articles are entitled: 1) Why Derby County will stay up. and 2) Leave Steve McClaren alone - he's the best person to manage England.
