Where Will We Finish?

Isn't the 2nd half of the season the same as the 1st half of the season? Or do you mean home fixtures v away fixtures?

 

Yeah home and away, can’t remember where it was posted but it highlighted it was a bit harder. Although, as you say, still the same teams.

 

Our away form is good ATM, so if that is your point maybe we will have an even better 2nd half of the season?

 

We only made one signing. What’s your prediction now? The 16th-18th bracket in the above poll?

 

If we finish 16th we’d have done well. I think 16th-18th is a fair prediction. Could be lower but I’d prefer to be optimistic.

 

I predict this is the week that kills our season. Two home defeats and going out the cup. Enjoy.

 

Going through mid-season blues right now. For me, a lot depends on what a fully fit dennis can do. He could be a spark to ignite a young / inexperienced attacking part of the team. Still don't think we will make the play offs, but top half is very possinle

 

I have enjoyed the same people who have been saying all season 'we'll be in a relegation scrap' or 'the best we can hope for is mid-table' getting increasingly angry that we're unlikely to make the play-offs and are indeed likely to finish mid-table.

Heard a rumour from a well-placed journalist that more than one mid-table championship side decided against going for it in the January window because they think it's incredibly unlikely they'll be able to beat the current top 4 to promotion, whereas next season is looking a lot more competitive in terms of the teams who are likely to go down and come up. Doubt we're one of those as it's looking increasingly like we're just skint, but thought it was interesting.

 

Not an unreasonable strategy. You would not fancy anyone to beat Leeds/Saints in playoffs and only 2 spots to go at.

Who is getting angry? Surely nobody thinks we have any other than the remotest shots at the playoffs given our squad depth and complete lack of quality in certain positions?

 

Val pretty much said we're in that basket in his post-window interview. At least certainly in the sense of assessing this year's league as being considerably harder than the last.

https://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/sport/24094282.watfords-january-transfer-window-assessed-ismael/

 

But Dennis was bought to solidify a play-off place.

 

Do you read Watford Twitter? It’s a cesspit of negativity and anger in recent days!

 

No no, he was brought on loan til the end of the season with no obligation to buy to help Ismael in his latest mission statement - ‘to build something long term’.

Look over there!

 

Yep but thought they were generally angry at owner rather than the fact we aren’t making playoffs. Surely not many think that is achievable. Anyway I do agree next season seems more a level playing field (well projected anyway).

 

You're bound to be right at some point. Maybe this is your time. Good luck.

 

Right or wrong, it doesn’t bother me. I just want the club to be vibrant and healthy. I just cannot sit by and happy clap to league one, placing my head in the sand pretending all is good and putting a positive spin on everything.

I can clearly see the direction of travel this club is going in, whereas others are just blind to it.

 

We are definitely on a downward trajectory. I despair when I think about the millions we have wasted. Compared where Luton have come from in the last few years and on their budget and where they are now. Their team/squad is miles better than ours and with our discarded manager in charge. Depressing times. Pozzo needs to go.

 

We need to create a hostile atmosphere at the Vic.

Perhaps get the Upper GT to hold flags emblazoned with

“Welcome to Helsinki - Part 2”

 

Back in the dark days of October I predicted 18th. After our good results in December I voted for 10th to 12th. After today's debacle against Huddersfield I may return to my prediction of 18th.

To back this up, I have graphed our cumulative points, home and away, and used Excel to add trendlines, projected forward to the end of the season.

The trendlines conform suprisingly well to the underlying data. (A value of R squared of 1 represents perfect conformity: 0.8 is a good fit.) The peak value* of each trendline suggests we will get 2 more points at home and 3 more points away. If this were so, we would finish on 49 points.






Edit: * I don't think even Watford could drop points in the last month of the season that had previously been won.

 

Welcome to the “knowing better than everyone else club”. I was getting lonely.

 

Sounds about right given the upcoming fixtures.

 

If my impartial numerical analysis is faulty, I'm happy for it to be corrected.
If it's not faulty, and is unpopular, I am happy with that too.

 

I think your 18th place finish is correct, and is a place I predated we’d finish when we were on the verge of the playoffs in December.

 

Thankfully, we've only got (to suffer) another 12 performances to find out how good our predictions are.

 

I don’t think of you as a predator.

 

I'm beginning to think that a top 2 finish might be out of our reach now.

 

Bed wetter.

 

'Bed even wetter' if I suggest possible relegation after the next game then.

 

I put a fiver on us to be relegated on Monday with Paddy Power at 500/1. The odds have now dropped to 100/1.

 

I’d imagine it was your bet that shifted the odds.

 

Probably the reason for such a shortening is down to them hearing Val is not being sacked.