WFC & Our Rivals Run In Fixtures & Results

And another cheating 'Muff penalty!

 

Four points from our next two and we'll be alright.

 

"We've not beaten anyone from the top 6." "We've not beaten anyone from the top 6." "We've not beaten anyone from the to 6."

It's like a flipping broken record on here from some people.

4 OF THEM ARE BELOW US!!!

You realise that just means that effectively they are WORSE at beating the WORST teams, right?

What does that say about them?! I'd be a little more worried if I was their fans!!!

 

Ipswich better take some points off Bournemouth.

We'll beat one of Middlesbrough or Derby, I reckon. Hopefully get a least a point from the other game.

 

I think 4 points is realistic. The form guide would attest to that.

I guess the law of averages (or the law of the championship) would suggest that we were possibly due a loss after our fantastic run. I'd rather it be v Ipswich. I'll take that loss if we go on to win the next 2 more important games.

 

I don't think Ipswich will beat Bournemouth, they really are a fairly average side who we really should have beaten. It's fairly obvious that Yawnmouth will now start their next game against Ipswich with a blatant dive, get a penalty and the game will go downhill from there aka our game and Middlesborough's with them - it's pretty much their hallmark this season. I'd like to say we will beat either Derby or Middlesborough, an on paper we should, but to be honest after yesterday's performance who knows?....

 

Ipswich came to the game yesterday to stop us playing. We did not have a plan B.

Derby and Boro will come into the game with the intention of scoring. Our defence is looking stronger, and our attacking force is even stronger. Opportunities will open themselves up in the next two games. It's just who can score the most.

 

In spite of our defeat, I'd love Ipswich to give Bournemouth a good pasting on Friday

 

That's what worries me why didn't we have a plan B?.....

 

Derby will yes. Boro have built a whole season on conceding very few goals and winning 1-0 so they will if anything be Ipswich Mk II in their approach.

 

I think it was thrown off early with Ekstrands injury.

We also are missing someone who can fill the gap like Forestieri and Abdi can. None of our players yesterday were brave enough to play the ball forward

 

Like like like like. This is exactly what I've been saying

 

Got to be a concern that we can't beat the better teams in the division, though, given there are 17 in the league above us who we may be playing next season.

 

updated for Ipchit
<img src="http://i57.tinypic.com/2zhebzt.jpg" border="0" alt="Image and video hosting by TinyPic"></a>

 

You are correct in terms of the league. But this would surely be a worry if we end up in the playoffs no?

 

Hmmm. Not sure I buy that. This isn't the time for boring 0-0 draws for any of the sides. I think Boro come to try and win and because it's an alien concept to them, we smash them. After sneaking past Derby the Friday before.

6 from 6. GD prediction.

 

We spend so much time on here discussing our own thoughts and feelings on Watford and our rivals, how must they be feeling. Looking at form, the table, and the games left, I've tried to put myself in their shoes and see things from their perspective:


Bournemouth: “We are top. We are 3 points clear of 4th with a vastly superior goal difference. Our next game is a tricky one but after that we have an easy run in. Our 2 closest rivals play each other in 2 games time so somebody will drop points. Norwich are strong, but they need to out-score us in the run in by 4 points or 3 and a lot of goals. If we don’t make at least the top 2 it would be unbelievable. We should probably win it. We are up no matter.”

Watford: We all know our feelings!

Middlesbrough: “We are 3rd. Our form in the last 6 games is inconsistent to say the least. We can beat Derby but we can lose against Sheffield Wednesday. We’ve got a relatively easy game back at home to Wigan, but that could be a banana skin at this moment in time. We have to go to Norwich and Watford who are scoring for fun and are both on pretty good form, and we host Wolves who haven’t lost for 4 games in a row. We should be pretty much guaranteed play-offs now. Top 2? In our last 6 games we’ve only got 9 points. In our next 7 we need to vastly improve on this, as 82 points will probably not see us second. We have the hardest run in of our rivals. We beat Watford and Norwich we have a great chance. We lose to either or both of them, it’s only play offs as far as I can see.”

Norwich: “We are 4th. We are only 2 points behind the automatics. The 2 teams above us both slipped up and we capitalised. Our run in is pretty awesome with only Boro as a tough game. I reckon we can get 15 points out of the last 21 so 85 points is a real possibility. Can the other teams above us get at least 13 to match that? With Watford and Boro playing each other, that’ll take care of one of their games for us, and they both have difficult games ahead of them. The draw at Huddersfield was a blow. We cannot let that happen again. We have a great chance of 2nd. Let’s just not slip up in our first game back as that could be devastating.”

Derby: “We are out of the automatics. We’ll need a miracle now as will need about 6 wins out of our last 7 to have any realistic chances, and we haven’t won a game in the last 6! We need to be looking over our shoulders more than ahead of us as now a play off spot is all we can hope for and with our form vs that of Wolves behind us, we could miss out on that. Our first game is v Watford. This game is massive. We cannot lose this game. Even a draw and we could drop out of the plays offs. This is a must win.”

Ipswich: “A great win at Watford to cement our play off chances. Top 2? Probably not. Our form isn’t great and we need to win 6 out of 7 to have a chance. And realistically, I can’t see this happening. 10 points from our last 7 games could probably see us in the play offs. The game v Wolves away could be vital to our top 6 spot, but with Derby falling away then this game may already have lost any importance.”


I may be well off the mark, but I bet they are all as nervous as we are, no matter what their current form, league position or games left. It's still in the balance for us all - yes, even Bournemouth, though I suspect they will be sleeping a little easier than the rest of us for the next 2 weeks!

 

Just in case my previous post wasn't boring enough, here's another. Using the Championship Calculator, I've put in the best case scenario, worst case scenario, and what I think will be scenario after game week 40.

To make it simple, each result was done by a win of 1-0 or a draw of 1-1.

Even the worst case scenario actually doesn't look that bad. Only 3 points behind Boro in second and with them to play next. And only a point from Norwich.

Fate always sets up cracking game opportunities, and us and Boro top on 75 each with each other next would be a mouthwatering game! Come on fate.

 

Official #watfordfc ‏@watfordfcsays 14m14 minutes ago
FIXTURE CHANGE: #watfordfc's game at Brighton & Hove Albion on Sat Apr 25 to kick-off at 12.15pm with live coverage on Sky Sports

 

Lets hope so!!!! Lol

 

If you have short attention span just read this bit:

Here are my predicted % chance of the finishing positions for the teams. There are probably no surprises - it shows a clear 4 way race for the top 2 spots, with Bournemouth the favourites - and Norwich the least likely. Even after the Ipswich result we are still 50:50 for the automatic spot.



If you have some time to kill you can read the rest…

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Okay, you'll have to humour me here but I was a bit bored so thought I'd knock up a spreadsheet to predict the chances of the top 8 making the automatic spots/play offs. I understand the futility of predicted the championship, and that this is probably/certainly a waste of time but there you go. What this model does is look through the remaining fixtures, considers who is home/away, considers the quality of opposition, then uses the % likely outcome to predict the result. It then replicates that process (or at least the last step) 1,000 times. I've assumed all the top teams are roughly as good as each other. It doesn't really take into account form either, as that is a fleeting thing that can be lost or gained at the drop of a hat. Derby are op as I started building this when they were top of the league, which shows how much they have plummeted in the last few weeks

I’ve only done it on points not goal difference, so in the event of teams having the same points there is further random number to pick who might be the winner, I didn’t have the mental energy to build this into the model! However, I have assumed in a points tie that Bournemouth would always win, whereas Ipswich, Brentford and Wolves would just miss out on any other teams.

The inspiration for this analysis was from someone I recently interviewed who said they used Monte Carlo analysis. I’d never heard of it so have used a kind of hybrid to create this. This probably doesn’t reflect well on me as we didn’t hire the person as they appeared to lack any skills in interacting with people!

 

Does anyone know the dates set for the championship playoff semi finals?

 

Friday, May 8, 2015 (7.45pm)
Sky Bet Championship – 1st Leg

Saturday, May 9, 2015 (12.15pm)
Sky Bet Championship – 1st Leg

Friday, May 15, 2015 (7.45pm)
Sky Bet Championship – 2nd Leg

Saturday, May 16, 2015 (12.15pm)
Sky Bet Championship – 2nd Leg

Monday, May 25, 2015 (3pm)
Sky Bet Championship - Final

 

The final is 23 days after the main season ends. That's a really big bite into the close season.

 

The main reason that if we do go up we go up auto. Massive job pre season if we make it with a huge squad review and contracts to negotiate etc.

 

http://hereisthecity.com/en-gb/2015...pionship-promotion-picks-and-hopes-promising/

I can't believe it Jeff.

 

Speaking of rivals and run ins, what about Luton losing their last 6 in a row and 8 of their last 9! They've really messed it up.

 

There's under the radar, and then there's that. Very strange.

 

That is actually bizarre. It's like all the pundits in the world came together at the New Years party and decided, as a joke, to pretend we don't exist. We're 2nd ffs.

 

“If Bournemouth were in the Premier League, I don’t know how they would cope because their ground only holds 12,000, but dreams can come true. I think they are going to have a ferocious challenge. Norwich are on fire, and also from Middlesbrough. I know they played them last weekend, but I think Bournemouth were maybe a little bit flattered by the scoreline. Middlesbrough are really well organised, they have a really good coach in Karanka and I think it will be two of those three. I think Derby have left themselves with a little bit too much to do and have slipped away from the pace. Ipswich have got a bit to do as well. All of the sides up there have had a fantastic season but if you had to press me, it might be Norwich and Middlesbrough with Bournemouth just missing out, but I would love to see them go up.”

Only team in the top six not mentioned.

 

It really does pose the question, how can a discussion specifically about promotion NOT include the team in 2nd? I dont buy into the idea that the media dont like us etc, although i DO think Bmth clearly do tick the boxes, but how can we not get a mention. It really is a strange one.

 

Yet you see plenty of articles discussing whether or not Arsenal or Man City can still win the league...

 

The Daily Mail have turned Joka:



They describe him as tall, lean, ruggedly handsome and with a disarming charm :love2:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/fo...tml?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

 

It was going so well until they labelled a picture of Guedioura with 'Keith Andrews...'

Terrible error on their part!

 

Sorry UEA I didn't see your post before posting the link in a new thread!