That’s very strange considering the sheer power and trajectory of the shot. Surely the goalkeeper isn’t expected to save that 19 times out of 20?
Not sure, it's possible there's an error as i've had to query things (and then it get changed after my request) before. I'll ask them!
Thanks as always @reids . I only watched the 2nd half of the Swansea game, so in relation to the average positions, was it a noticeable change of how much more compact and pushed up the back 4 were? Do you think that was a clear instruction or just the players reacting to events? I’d guess the first one. As I say I didn’t watch the first half but were they getting joy by playing through our gaps first half?
I honestly can't remember haha, when watching Watford I switch off my analysis side and go into fan mode! Another game we had more than enough chances to win - 81% of their xG came from set-pieces - Our goals were worth 0.27 xG (Asprilla) and 0.37 xG (Raj) - Despite scoring Raj + Asprilla missed several other big chances - Rajovic (0.33 xG), Asprilla (0.34 xG) - Interesting comparing the xG Difference table to the actual table - lots of teams in a similar sort of position in both tables, however some big differences between the xG table and actual (us, Boro, Coventry are the biggest underachievers)
Luckily I missed this one, as the comments in the match thread and the stats seem to say that it was an utter borefest. - Our joint lowest xG created so far this season (with Leeds) - Our lowest xG against of the season so far (and would be surprised if we anybody manages to create less!) - Best chance of the game was Bayo in the 62nd minute (0.07 xG) - Their best chance was Wiles after 4 mins from the edge of the area (0.05 xG) - Can see the amount of possession our CBs had - those circles are huge!
A solid victory despite not many chances being created, a game where we were actually clinical! - That is reflected in the stats out of our 16 games this season we've created more xG in 4 other games (QPR, Middlesbrough, Cardiff + Millwall) - The goals were worth 0.19 xG (Rajovics first), 0.52 xG (Rajovic 2nd), 0.19 (Kayembe), 0.46 (Ince) + 0.06 xG (Martins) - Can see via the OBV (on ball value) stats that Lewis's performance mirrored what lots of comments said - about how he negatively impacted the team - his actions reduced the chances of us actually scoring
Some worrying numbers: 13th in the league WDL = 666 Our points (24) ÷ by our GD (4) is 6 Our points (24) - games played (18) is 6 Hull are 6th There are exactly 6 teams between Watford and Hull right now There is a 6 point difference between us (18+6+6+6+4) ÷ 24 = 1.666
Well outclassed in pretty much every metric. Rajovics shot after 10 mins was our best chance of the game (0.35) that represented almost half our total amount of xG.
- Race chart shows how little Norwich created after their 2nd goal. - Their goals were worth 0.03 xG (Hwangs) and 0.18 xG (Batths) - Kones goal was worth 0.02 xG (0.55 PSxG - showing how great a finish it was), Rajovics was worth 0.58 xG and Asprillas worth 0.11 xG (would've said that should've been higher but guess it was a tight angle!) - xG Difference chart is really starting to more resemble the actual league table now and it suggests we should possibly be slightly higher in the table than we currently are.
- Shot maps didn't show Hoedts goal so bonus image of it included (0.011 xG!) - Penalty makes the xG stats look worse than they were - Hull took a lot of shots but mostly from range and most of the ones inside the penalty area were blocked also - That being said we also didn't really create too much of note. Kayembe took his goal (0.13 xG) well.
Why was Kayembe's goal only 0.13 xG? He was in a load of space and near the penalty spot, albeit a handful of defenders and the keeper to get the shot through.
Was in loads of space when he received it, but when he actually took the shot there's a couple of defenders immediately in front of the shot, then there's another defender + GK well placed, so I imagine reckon that brings the value down. Twines goal was a bit further back and didn't have anyone in the way and was 0.17 xG.
A point a fair reflection of what happened. - Healeys goal worth 0.05 xG. Our best chance was Semas 1 vs 1 (0.23 xG) - Their goal was worth 0.12 xG. Their best chance was Armstrong from a corner in the 38th min (0.23 xG) - Only QPR on match-day 4 have managed to concede less xG to Southampton (0.32 xG)
-19.74 xG overall. Have only created 13.68 xG whilst conceding a monstrous 33.42 xGA. Basically they're ****ed. They're conceding 1.67 xG per 90 mins (!) interestingly we've actually got the 2nd best xGA per 90 in the league with only 0.83 xGA per 90.
Interesting and tight game. - We generally restricted their chances, but were unfortunate to give away 2 big chances from which they scored both (first goal was worth 0.77 xG, winner was worth 0.46). Their 2 goals were worth 74% of the total xG created - We created a few big(ish) chances ourselves, Rajovics saved shot that lead to Asprillas goal was the biggest and was worth 0.36 xG. Lewis's 1 vs 1 was worth 0.21 xG. Asprillas goal was worth 0.07 xG. - The OBV values match the eye test, with Asprilla and Sema causing the most issues. Ince negatively impacted that when he came on. Would really like to see those changes happen less...
You can see from the positional charts where in the 2nd half, Ipswich stopped us doing what we were doing well in the 1st Asprilla had space in the 1st to come inside, drag their right side across, creating space for Sema. We also had quite easy outs through Kone in the 1st half, who was able to turn and travel 5 or 10m. You can see how they closed this space in the 2nd half. By stopping the ball easily getting through to Sema meant that Lewis wasn't able to push on to create a 2 on 1. Little changes in a set up can make a huge difference
Not often you win 5-1 with the xG being so tight between teams! - Bayos blocked shot after rounding the keeper was the biggest xG shot of the game (0.59 xG), closely followed by Hoedts back-post header from a corner (0.45 xG) - Long range goals helped balance out the scores with Kayembes goal worth 0.04 xG and Kones goal worth 0.08 xG - Prestons 2.31 xG is the most we've conceded in a single game and yet only conceded once - credit to Hamer!
- Blackburn didn't really create much - their best chance was Garret just on the stroke of half time from the edge of the area (0.21 xG). Their goal was worth just 0.02 xg! - Asprilla dominated when he came on which shows up well on the OBV maps - Our goals were obviously very big chances, Rajs was 0.55 xG and Healeys was 0.61 xG - 8th on the xG Difference table now which pretty well reflects the actual table now, bar a few exceptions.
Just checking @reids is the player position circles their average place they were or where they took their average touches? Only because on this one our left hand side is so much further forward, which would potentially mean attacking more down that side? Otherwise if it’s average position that would be quite strange (I’d have thought)
Average touches as sadly SB don't have tracking data yet, so yeah you're right in our attacks were mostly focused down that side!
- Our 4th worst defensive xG result of the season (after Leeds, Leicester + Preston) - Our best chance of the game was Kone in the 9th minute (0.26 xG) with Chakvetadzes goal worth 0.22 xG - Their best chance of the match without a goal was Sykes in the 72nd minute (0.19 xG), with their opener worth 0.07 xG, the 2nd worth 0.86 xG and the final goal worth 0.15 xG - Can see how we really struggled to find Raj in the first half off the maps
Fascinating, as ever. I definitely enjoy a good documentary (as opposed to a lengthy pantomime). Keep up the good work @reids
