Bad news for plastic pint 'glass' manufacturers in Austria and Switzerland - England have just a 23 percent probability of qualifying for Euro 2008. According to the statistics, Steve McClaren's side have less than a one in four chance of making it to next summer's jamboree going into the final weekend of qualifying action. England's only realistic hope is that Russia slip up against either Israel or, less likely, Andorra. Then Steve McClaren's side would qualify with a win against Croatia. There is a 22% chance of this coming to pass. A real long shot is for Croatia to implode. They would be out if they lost to Macedonia, and were then thumped at Wembley. To secure an equal or better head-to-head, England would have to win either 2-0, or by three or more goals. But there is more chance of Lord Lucan scoring the winner on Wednesday than of this happening, with less than a two percent likelihood. But that sad reality is that, having dropped points against four teams in the group, England's stumbling campaign looks set to end in failure. THE MATHS PART - Probability of each outcome ENGLAND QUALIFY - Russia fail to beat both Israel and Andorra (38%), England beat Croatia (57%) - 21.7% - Russia beat Israel and Andorra (62%); Croatia lose to Macedonia (12%), then lose to England either 2-0 or by three or more goals (22%) - 1.7% Total chance - 23.4% ENGLAND FAIL TO QUALIFY - Russia beat Israel and Andorra (62%), Croatia get a point against Macedonia (88%) - 54.6% - Russia beat Israel and Andorra (62%), Croatia lose to Macedonia but do enough against England (9%) - 5.7% - Russia fail to beat Israel and Andorra (38%), England fail to beat Croatia (43%) - 16.3% Total chance - 76.6% Click the link below the photo for what each of the home nations must to do go through! (Probabilities based on betting exchange prices) Alex Chick / Eurosport
