£10 into £2000 in 365 days

are we taking an unnecessary risk with handicap betting? would we be better off going for more results in the less well known leagues? not that im questioning you or having a go reids, just curious?

 

Think it's my fault to be honest. Ever since I started following the bets, there has been a terrible run of form. My bank is down to 6.55 because I missed out on the early run of wins.

If you're all willing to pay me off, I'll stop following and your luck will pick up again.

 

Ok I've decided to try and be a little more adventurous here and sort out this shocking balance.
Norrkoping win & btts and Swansea (-2).

 

Possibly, for the most part I know the leagues in which handicaps are good, and those in which handicaps are bad. Handicaps are usually bad in the premier league, just because the the amount of quality each team has, but I based that bet on how Chelsea played against Hull, and how Villa usually play, there weren't many alternatives for the leagues i'm comfortable with betting with and thought it worth the risk! Was annoyed to see Ba start, he did nothing for the time he was on the pitch, and Lukaku looked a lot better.

 

Reids - when you say how Villa usually play - is that taking into consideration a new season -one doesn't know really how they will play until a few games in - whilst teams get to peak fitness and the new season buzz is over... palace hull results for example.. to judge on last season is an assumption nothing chamged and that is surely what close/pre season is about.

always dangerous tipping on first few games of a season imo..

 

I've decided to start but with my own bets... Made 175 quid through Reids betting style in 11 days but withdrew all before Holiday.

Starting with 10 quid and here's hoping I do a little better than Reids

Falkenbergs FF @ 1.80
£2.50 Single 22/08/2013 09:50:55 2.50 0.00
Tottenham -1.0,-1.5 @ 2.00
£2.50 Single 22/08/2013 09:25:15 2.50 0.00
Elfsborg @ 1.83
£2.00 Single 22/08/2013 09:22:23 2.00 0.00
Breidablik @ 1.66
£3.00 Single 22/08/2013 09:18:13 3.00 0.00

 

Oh for sure, but most of their new players (Tonev etc) started on the bench and they pretty much only score through Benteke, I thought Chelsea would do enough to nullify the threat of him, and then it would be open season down the other end. Sadly that didn't really happen!

 

Swansea playing some very nice stuff. 5-0 after 70 mins.

 

Week 3 writeup:

Only one word can describe the week i’ve/we’ve had - Dire. Absolutely shocking, the stats, although i’m sure you’re aware aren’t the greatest. In the last week we’ve won 33% of our bets (actually thought it would be a bit lower than that to be honest) at a loss of £2.24. Looking back at the bets, without knowing the final score, i’d take all of them again. All my bets are researched thoroughly, and i’m still using the same methods as I was at the start of the challenge when we were profitable so it’s just a bit of bad luck. That’s why we have the staking plan though, by sticking to the 5% of your bank limits, a week like this is still damaging, but certainly not one we can’t bounce back from. I think maybe £2000 is a bit ambitious if we’re not profitable after 3 weeks, but i’m certain we will still be able to make a considerable amount of profit at the end of it, and i’d much rather have a patch of bad luck like this when we’re only staking 40-75p than when we’re staking £40-£75! Hopefully a new week will see things change, there’s a great looking bet tomorrow and i’ll be placing a Heinz bet for Saturday that i’m looking forward to and should hopefully get us a bit of profit. I think i’ll do a weekly Heinz for Saturdays, as there’s always so many fixtures that I fancy that aren’t viable to take as singles in such numbers when we’re still working with a small balance.

 

Day 23:

Finally back into a day of profit (although it was only 10p, but every penny counts!), little bit disappointed I didn’t trust my instincts and back Tottenham -1 instead of the Norrkoping bet, but I was trying to find out the players Tottenham were taking but couldn’t find a squad list anywhere, the most I could find was an 18 year old striker (Shaquile Coulthirst) saying he was going, which didn’t fill me with confidence that Tottenham were taking a strong squad. Was gutted when I saw the lineups and saw the team Tottenham had taken. But it would have been a gamble not knowing the squad, and i’d prefer to err on the side of caution. Was rather disappointed with the Norrkoping score, been trying to find a clip of the first goal as it happened within seconds of kickoff, with no Dangerous Attack shown for it on Bet365 so he might’ve just shot from kickoff! Anyway, onto tomorrow, I wanted another bet, but it’s only been priced up on Bet365 at the moment, and the odds are a little lower than I thought it deserved to be, so i’ll be leaving that one out for the purpose of the challenge. If you have a Bet365 and want a stake on it though, its Bayern Munich II -1 handicap in the Regionalla Bayern league)

Balance: 8.93

German Bundesliga 2 Matches SV Sandhausen v Karlsruher
23-08-2013 17:30
Win-Draw-Win
Karlsruher @ 11/10

Stake: 75p

I love this league, it’s usually relatively easy to look at form and the league table to see who will win the game, and how much by, hopefully this will win on the back of what i’ve just said now! Karlsruher were worthy champions in the third division (this is 2nd divsion) last season, scoring the most goals and conceding just 27 goals in 38 games, they had 2 high scorers, one grabbed 17 goals (and has since moved to Hamburg) but they’ve retained the services of the other who grabbed 15 goals. They’ve had a strong start to the season, winning 2, drawing 1 and losing 1. The loss was a 2-1 defeat to Greuther F*rth who are my pick to go up as champions (and who we’ll be having quite a few bets on in the future!), and they did a lot better than expected in their cup game, losing 3-1 to a very strong Wolfsburg side (i’d actually call that a good result for Karlsruher). Sandhausen by contrast, finished in one of the 2 relegation spots last season, but have seemed to remain in the division (no idea why!), losing 20 of their 38 games, they also haven’t had a great start to the current season, registering just 2 points in 4 games (a draw against fellow strugglers Aalen and a 2-2 goalfest against Cottbus)

 

Swansea -2 at 11/4 was far too tempting.:]]

 

That's why you have a staking plan, you've lost 50% of your bank in one day (provided there's no more goals in the last 5 mins of the Icelandic game)!

 

Yeah, but his bank is a tenner. He can always get another one.

 

Reids. You might have covered this already but why do you not shop around for odds?

I know you end up with 'stagnant' cash spread amongst books but surely it would also reduce the chances of accounts being closed as well as getting much better value on your bets?

Also what odds and stake on the Bayern II game?

 

i just made a bet! contrary to the law!

 

There's a lot of people in the Facebook group that haven't bet before, nor bet very often, so until we move up to bigger stakes we'll be using the one bookie. But as we branch out, we'll register more accounts. The bookies also all copy odds off each other, so when the price moves on one, it will often move on the others as well (of course there is a slight delay in this)

Edit: Odds on 365 are currently 8/11, i'd go for a medium stake on it, their opponents aren't bad, but Bayern II are smashing the league apart (+26 GD after 8 games...)

 

Share your pain nornironhorn added Udinese to a couple of reids' bets and came up short on both.

What is going on !! Will they be any better next season when all the loans go back !!!

Sherlock please tell us what happened . Udinese first of the three Pozzo children to be beaten (and at home !!!)

 

Day 24:

Balance: 8.18

So annoyed about tonights bet, Karlsruher weren’t playing particularly well in the first half, but were getting chances. They capitalised on that early in the second half and I assumed bet won, until they gave away a corner in the 87th minute, which was headed in off the post due to some sloppy defending. To make things even more annoying Karlsruher had a stonewall penalty denied 2 minutes later. So annoying to be bouncing around like this!

Estonian Premier League Kuressaare v Paide Linnameeskond
24-08-2013 15:00
Win-Draw-Win
Paide Linnameeskond @ 10/11

Stake: 60p

Can’t believe the odds for this, Kuressaare are terrible, they are currently bottom of the league by a long way, with just 10 points from 23 games, scoring on average just under 1 goal per game, whilst conceding 2. Their home record isn’t particularly good (Played 12, won 2, drawn 3, lost 7). Paide on the other hand look like they’re going to finish 5th, trailing 4th place by 13 points, but ahead of 6th by 10 points. Paides away record isn’t too bad (played 12, won 5, drawn 1, lost 6, with 4 of the losses being the 4 teams above them in the league). I’d expect a 2-1 victory to Paide here, great odds for the win.

Portuguese Div 1 Matches Olhanense v Pacos Ferreira
24-08-2013 18:00
Win-Draw-Win
Pacos Ferreira @ 8/5

German Bundesliga 2 Matches Greuther Furth v FC Koln
24-08-2013 12:00
Win-Draw-Win
Greuther Furth @ evens

Serie A Matches Hellas Verona v AC Milan
24-08-2013 17:00
Win-Draw-Win
AC Milan @ 3/4

French Div 1 Matches Valenciennes v Marseille
24-08-2013 16:00
Win-Draw-Win
Marseille @ 11/10

Premier League Matches Hull v Norwich
24-08-2013 15:00
Win-Draw-Win
Norwich @ 2/1

Premier League Matches Stoke v Crystal Palace
24-08-2013 15:00
Win-Draw-Win
Stoke @ 5/6
Stake: 0.01 (as a Heinz type bet, so should be a total stake of 57p)

A heinz bet for those that don’t know is similar to an accumulator, but instead of just being the one bet (as in, if one selection loses, they all lose) it’s technically 57 bets (hence the name Heinz, after the 57 varieties) and it takes all selections and combines them into every available combination of doubles/trebles accumulators as well as singles (15 doubles, 20 trebles, 15 four-folds, 6 five-folds and a 1 six-fold accumulator.) Depending on how this goes, I might do one of these every weekend, as there’s always some tasty odds around and too many games to incorporate as singles

 

I accidently clicked on a wrong bet and almost id a super heinz by accident. Thanks as always Reids.

 

PaddyPower minimum stake is 10p so it won't accept a 1p stake on the Heinz.

 

Are you using the app or mobile version? Someone in the FB group had the same problem, but people (including me) that used the normal web version had no problems.

 

Same with Bet365 - min stake is 10p which makes the bet very expensive indeed.

I've done it, but with 10p on the 5 folds and 50p on the 6 fold. Glad to see Reids agrees regarding Palace and Hull taking (another) whupping.

 

I did it fine on PaddyPower with a 1p bet. Online not on the app.

 

It was the app. I'll price it up online instead. Cheers.

 

I'm doing this through Bet365 too and have taken the risk and done the min 10p stake fingers crossed for tomorrow !

Reids - In future for us using Bet365 any other combinations on the Bets we can do to make it cheaper ?

 

Can't find the Estonia game or the Portuguese game on Betfred. Anyone else got this problem? Min stake is 5p so have just done a Lucky31 without Pacos.

 

I think removing 2 of the selections (i'll leave it up to you to decide which!) and doing a 10p yankee (total stake £1.10) would probably be the closest alternative!

 

Just want to say I'm with you Reids and ready to make millions

 

thanks reids. i'm counting on you to make me enough money to get some world cup tickets

 

92nd minute winner for Paide saving the day in the first bet. Lucky as the pot was beggining to look a bit thin.

 

Marseille 0-0 at HT. Milan just kicking off.

 

Interstin m8. Wots ur sauce?