The Championship 2020-21

It's interesting when you delve into it - for instance everyone (especially commentators) raves about Ruben Neves and his shots from range and how he's a long shot expert, but when you actually delve into it, he's actually not. Below are his shot maps for the last 3 seasons in the PL:



Green = goal
Red = off-target
Blue = saved
Purple = blocked
Yellow = woodwork

So we can see he takes a LOT of shots from range (i've removed penalties from this view).

From open play he took 94 shots worth a total of 2.08 xG - the result? 0 goals.
From corner situations he took 34 shots worth a total of 0.82 goals scoring 2 goals in the process, however one of those goals was the goal you see just outside the 6-yard area (0.27 xG) so if we remove that it's 33 shots worth 0.55 xG and 1 goals.
From direct free kicks he took 25 shots worth 1.82 xG and scored 2 goals
From other set-piece situations he took 15 shots worth 0.27 xG, scoring 1 goal

Overall (excluding that corner goal from near the 6-yard area) he's taken 167 shots, for 4.74 xG and actually only scoring 3 goals.

If 3 goals from 167 shots is considered a long-shot specialist then give me the possession instead!

 

I think this shows another thing that happens with footballers - their reputation can be set very early on. Didn't Neves score a few long shots early on in his Wolves career? Once it's established that he's a long shot maestro then commentators and pundits will just keep repeating it even if the evidence doesn't back it up.

 

That would also play a part I'd imagine!

 

As Reids mentioned, models are increasingly more complex and continue to take into account a larger range of factors.

Machine learning, increases in computing power and increases in data means that they will become increasingly more accurate.

However, at the moment there are clearly factors which the algorithms haven’t taken account of yet: for instance, Son commonly outperforms his xG as he is is pretty much two footed, so scores far more goals than expected as he is using his “weaker foot”.

xG will also only ever provide the quality of the opportunity, and not the likelihood of scoring. It gives the number of times an average player would score from the opportunity. The worlds best strikers will often vastly out-score their xG.

That’s why it is always useful to use a range of statistics to accompany xG, such as heat maps, number of touches and shots in the box, xA etc to gage how well a team/ certain players is/ are attacking.

 

This is really interesting. Thanks @reids

A lot of analytics type people I follow on Twitter are incredibly anti-long shots for this reason, and I get it. But how many (and I genuinely have no idea) of Neves’ shots earn a corner? In some ways those shots should be considered successful in that they’ve progressed the play and turned maybe a not particularly dangerous situation (Neves’ possession from 35 yards) into one a bit more threatening (a corner). Are there any metrics which would recognise the progressiveness of Neves earning a corner? Or a rebound from one of his team’s strikers?

Some of our midfielders lately seem to have started shooting more from range and the shots never look like going in but do win corners fairly often - so as a fan I don’t consider them a ‘waste.’

 

This is partly the result of sky sports/ BBC thinking that we prefer to have ex players, irrespective of whether they have the same IQ as your average post box, to provide analysis on games.

The most annoying line is about players on the post, or man to man marking at corners “I just don’t understand it, if the player was there it wouldn’t be a goal”.

Clearly the question shouldn’t be ‘in this one situation, would this goal have been stopped if a player was on post’. The question should be, which system contributes to fewer goals from corners.

 

Corners quite famously provide a pretty low chance of scoring a goal. Certainly a much lower chance than fans think.

For most teams (at least this this was true about 3-4 years ago), you’re more likely to score a goal following a throw-in taken close to the oppositions box than a corner.

 

But again with corners, while the chances of converting one is one or two per cent the chances of earning a second or third corner is much higher. My point isn’t just that shooting from range could be a way to create a chance at a corner but also that the binary between shooting from range and keeping possession is a false one. The point also applies to the long shot rebounding off the woodwork or the keeper or deflecting out for a throw.

 

Only an idiot would try to make a career out of scoring goals from corners.

 

Progressive passes (https://dataglossary.wyscout.com/progressive_pass/) or xThreat probably comes closest to describing that (https://karun.in/blog/expected-threat.html) but that's on a whole different level of complexity!

 

Get it in the mixer!

 

There is a balance between the two though. You can usually call the quality of a long range shot before it is kicked based on the position of the player and the bounce of the ball. All shots that are within a yard of the goal were probably worth taking, but not the ones that end up in row Z or go for throw ins. If I can predict the likely outcome with high accuracy as a spectator, you would think a pro would know not to take on the ones that have no chance.

 

Reminds me of the old chant in the Mike Keen era.
"We'd rather have a throw-in, we never score from a corner".

 

Not only the Mike Keen era.

 

G T was connected to work done by Wing-Commander Charles Reep: Pre-computer times, but this fellow collected data about where and when goals were scored, etc and came to various conclusions about how to maximise results by following the stats. A lot of pundits were appalled, or pretended to be, probably wishing they'd thought of it themselves. Knives were out for Taylor in certain journalistic circles and he was implicated in the whole thing. I believe he denied any connection, or at least said he was not influenced by it.
In my opinion, where Taylor was successful was by not following the herds: His teams played in ways which were not fashionable and coaches did not know how to deal with this.
If Reids is right about this, and pretty much everybody at the top tables is doing these statistical analyses, we are going to end up with everybody playing identical, pre-planned, 'safe' football. And that's already happening, isn't it?
Time, then, for the heir to Graham Taylor's renegade coaching to step forward....

 

It's funny how these things work, Reep helped influence football at the time, he concluded from his data that most goals came from moves that had less than 3 passes and so the long-ball game became trendy, his data has since been deemed as wrong - I wonder if in 50 years time people will be looking at these xG models and wonder what the hell were we doing?

 

I was just saying this last night, that football is becoming more regimented and that "Individual Flair" seems to gone out the window, we need it back NOW!!!

 

Indeed, although going by the above McGugan was better at it!

 

I don't think football is alone.
Most sports where the stakes are high financially are dogged by this.
Few crowd pleasers around.

 

Jefferson Lerma is apparently about to be handed a lengthy ban for biting.

 

Charming.
Define "lengthy" please.

 

Did that lad at Blackburn get a retrospective ban for doing his best Eric Cantona impression and nearly killing that Boro player?

 

Not too sure I was just told that he had been charged for biting an opponent and he faces a lengthy ban. Suarez got 10 games for biting though.

AFCB have bought Pearson from Preston though and Billing could be off to The Toon.

 

Would love to see Muffs season drift off to a benign mid table finish.

 

When I saw that Pearson was going to AFCB I thought it strange but given what you say about Lerma and Billing it tallies.
Ten games would seem appropriate.

 

Reading 2 up at home to Muff. If they get another they'll overtake us. Bournemouth defending poor.

 

I only turned over during the slug part in Winterwatch and it was a flimsy piece of goalkeeping by Begovic.
I don't think Tindall will be there when we play them. Not unless they have a repeat of the Dean Court match and it sets them on a run.

 

3-0 Reading now.

 

Proper Manager sacked by lunch tomorrow performance from Muff here. They’ve been dreadful.

 

Love seeing it happen emotionally, but it's not actually strategically great for us. Reading's nine extra goals presumably mean they have just gone ahead of us on goals scored. Great vindication of our brave protest against the concept of employing competent strikers.

 

Drysdales face has made my night when that 3rd went in.

 

Unfortunately I think Bournemouth should be doing better and suspect they will get a new manager that does just that. They’re in free fall at the minute

 

Drysdale is the Goebels to Howes’ Hitler.

Both equally dispicable , but there is something special about the nasty sidekick getting his comeuppance.