Covid-19 Virus

Now it's just a numbers game. You can never eradicate it. Reading reports of previous pandemics where it turns up in remote villages 3 years later, where there was no previous cases.

I still think you can enforce lock down on the elderly & the vulnerable/high risk etc & at least get the healthy under 50's back to normality & the workplace ASAP. Perhaps in a phased 50/50 approach, rather than all in one go. Maybe a company can get half their workforce back for say 2-3 weeks, monitor the results & then get the other half back.

There will no doubt be some in the first group that get ill, they can then self isolate. Bear in mind there is likely to be a reasonable number that have already had it so should not be affected.

Apart from the economy, IMO the potential mental health fall out is another reason people need to return to their routines as quickly as possible. Expect to see a huge rise in OCD from this in the coming years.

 

Good to see you're still trying to inject some humour into the situation by pretending to offer a clearly ridiculous set of ideas as sensible government strategy!

 

Do you honestly believe the bat story?

 

I really hope there isnt a baby boom in 9 months time due to people being on lockdown.

 

Do you mean as opposed to it being man made and deliberately spread by China?

 

That was my feeling early on, it seemed to make sense. The current UK restrictions still seem to make more sense to me than the French or Italian route as I just don't see how they can come out of them with any confidence at all.

 

Bio lab in Wuhan, accidental release seems more plausible than eating bats especially as this virus appears to be a really nasty fvcker.

 

You would have to be bat sh1t crazy to believe anything that comes out of that rag!

 

I thought the same thing initially. Much as we might like to think it, the top medical advisors and ministers are not idiots. Nor are those in other countries. There must be a very good reason for not doing this. No Govt wants to deliberately trash their own economy if they can help it so there must be strong evidence that this approach wouldn't work.

 

The top three people in this country at the moment got infected at the same time, of course they are idiots.

 

Bats are reservoirs for a number of nasty things. I don’t believe it came directly from eating a bat, but from something that had been infected by a bat. It’s generally how any new virus is introduced to humans so it’s not exactly completely implausible. If you keep every animal together alive and dead in markets the risk of it happening multiplies greatly.

As for corona itself, by far the most dangerous thing about it is the fact it’s quite often symptomless and takes quite a while to incubate. Admittedly that could’ve been through design, but as far as being a real nasty ****er it’s not exactly Ebola.

 

Would it get clogged up if the high risk were removed from the equation?

 

Many would disagree

 

Survey this morning.

Did you stockpile food in last week?
Age 18 to 24 - 30% yes.
Age 25 to 34 - 12%
Age 35 to 54 - 15%
Age 55 to 64 - 5%
Age 65+ - 8%

How dare you!

 

Just shows how slow the young are. The oldies got their stockpiling done 2-3 weeks ago.

 

Virus Day 7.
Getting really fed up of feeling ill now. Woke up this morning feeling carp and fever seems to be back. Paracetamol hasn't touched it. Frustratingly we both have had times when we feel much better and think we've broken the back of it. A couple of hours later and we are just flopped out on a bed or sofa unwilling to move. The virus is clearly still in us but at least neither of us has experienced any breathing difficulties yet.
Neither of us have any appetite. Wife is surviving on tea and digestives which she's forcing down. I'm trying to eat small amounts of what I'd normally eat. Our taste buds are completely screwed. Coffee tastes horrible and I can't even taste melted mature cheddar on toast which to me is one of life's great treats.
Last couple of days I've spent 30 mins in the garden and the sun and fresh air really made me feel better. However a couple of hours later and I've been absolutely shattered. It's too cold to go out today.
Keep trying to stay positive that it's better to catch this now rather than in 2 weeks time, both our lungs are Ok at present, we have each other and no kids to "manage" but it's just so draining physically and mentally. Mrs TuT also has the guilt that she has a key role in helping the emergency services cope and is unable to play a role. She had told them she hoped to be back "next Monday" but given that's now less than 24 hrs away, there's no chance of that. Her asthma isn't causing an issue but she's starting to run low on her "blue puffer".
Sorry bit of a ramble. Hopefully other who get this, inc you ZZ, will get a milder hit. I wouldn't want to be 20 yrs older and get this. We both have one 80+ parent and would be very concerned if they catch this.
Take care all.

 

All ministers of every nation ? Just isolating those at risk and letting the rest "get on with it" whilst saving the economy is such an obvious option, I can't believe that each nation hasn't considered it. There must be a reason that it's not been adopted. Presumably whilst the death rate in "sub 60, no factors" population is very low, the number requiring hospitalization would completely drown the NHS.

 

As opposed to keeping everyone locked up forever, though?

 

I’d imagine it’s what many will want to do and will end up doing, once any lockdowns have brought the virus down to more manageable levels first. These measures haven’t been in place for long enough anywhere other than China yet, so none of us know if that’s what many governments are actually planning yet.

 

They haven’t considered it - at least publicly, as you can bet your bottom dollar it’s been war gamed in private - as it’s counter-intuitive and simply not something modern politicians can sell or spin to the general public right now. The alternative means we can’t all be in it together, which is the easiest and laziest way for politicians to impose unpopular restrictions on things people enjoy doing.

Anyway, today Gove says this phase of lockdown will likely last for a ‘significant period’. One of the Imperial scientists reckons end of May is an optimistic view and even then social distancing (so presumably things as they were 8 days ago) would probably be expected until October.

The public won’t stand for it if that happens. I hope Italy and Spain start to see sharp drops in deaths soon or their extreme measures (even stricter than ours) will lose credibility fast. Then it comes down to finding a sensible Plan B or I fear our social order will start to visibly crack.

 

The difficulty is though until there is a vaccine the old and vulnerable will be at risk, we can reduce that risk by locking down everyone until the vaccine arrives but that then means everyone suffering the same hardship. So your argument seems to be it’s better to impose it everyone rather than just a smaller group. I don’t profess to have the answers, nobody does, but when you boil it down for anybody who doesn’t want to catch the virus vulnerable or otherwise it means hiding in their house for a year.

 

But equally it could be argued it’s selfish of the elderly and vulnerable to expect everyone to suffer hardship and isolation with them, if the cost of doing so for society as a whole is too large.

 

I'd be quite happy if some social distancing becomes the norm.

It's been quite pleasant queueing without some BO smelling mouth breather right up behind me and being able to walk down the street with plenty of space to enjoy.

 

How do you propose doing that?

 

You stop them going to work and make it illegal for them to go out in most circumstances, just as we all are subject to currently.

You then use a fraction of the money the government is currently spending to put in place secure food provision for them, pay their wages and protect their jobs. Basically give them every incentive - hell, let’s pay them a bonus to really encourage compliance - for staying inside in isolation for the duration.

 

You could argue it, but it wouldn’t be correct. Yesterday, we are told, 17 younger people with no underlying health conditions died. Scale that up to Spanish or Italian levels and that’s about 100 a day, not to mention the numbers of elderly people, otherwise fit, who will die a few years before their time.

There really isn’t a choice and I’m surprised it is still being argued. No country can stand alone if it wants to rejoin the World community ASAP. Lockdown and get the virus out of our system quickly. Then be ready with measures for the second wave, contact testing, heat scanning etc.

 

Yes and it’s all very sad Moose. But young people and others die before their time as a result of lots of other things we don’t grind society completely to a halt for. As a species we make risk assessments all the time and have long since learned to accept there will always be a small percentage who come out on the wrong side of the equation.

How do you define ‘quickly’ in your last para?

 

Aren’t they doing that anyway for the most part? What we will see overwhelming hospitals is pre lockdown dithering, when people were arguing for herd immunity.

Take the lockdown off for the rest and younger people may overwhelm the system on their own. It really only needs small percentages.