Will We Make The Play Offs?

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by hornetboy1, Feb 5, 2023.

  1. Lloyd

    Lloyd Squad Player

    Good tip. I'll remember that. Thanks
     
    EB Hornet likes this.
  2. Lloyd

    Lloyd Squad Player

  3. Lloyd

    Lloyd Squad Player

    Excellent!!
     
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  4. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    Fanny hair
     
  5. Happy bunny

    Happy bunny Cheered up a bit

    5% chance of winning all four, so on your odds it's a 2.5% chance of getting into the playoffs - and then, on my analysis, a 5% chance of getting promotion. As things stand that's a 0.125% chance of us playing a league match against Man City next season, I believe.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2023
  6. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    I like a bit of math and a few stats, but after a day of work I’m going to need to come back to this one to work it out.

    If we DID win all 4 games - what’s the odds that we’d make it then. I reckon 50%
     
  7. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    I appreciate I’m splitting hairs because it’s no real chance either way, but surely if we actually made the playoffs our odds of getting promoted would have to be higher than 5%? We effectively just need to win 2 out of three games, but even then we could draw all three and win two penalty shoot outs.
     
  8. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Administrator Staff Member

    Logically, we go into the playoffs we a 25% chance of promotion. Win the semi final (both legs) that probability goes up to 50%. Obviously we win the Final it's 100%. All four teams have the same pool of chance. But I am sure EB Hornet will delve down into the figures. :)

    Fanny is technically not a swear word, it's a very old fashioned name for a female. However it can be morphed into one within a set context.
     
  9. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    Considering Millwall very much seem to be our bogey team, and considering we lost pretty comprehensively to both Boro (we did technically win on aggregate against the scum! ;)) , our chances in the playoffs should we get there while not 5% would surely not be 25% (I'm not banking on us having any 'late season surge' bounce!)
     
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  10. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Administrator Staff Member

    Oh absolutely. If by some miracle we made it into the top six and played Millwall over the two legs, we may as well help them prepare for the PO final by getting their end ready at Wembley. Team will certainly do their part I am sure of not laying a glove on them for 180+ mins. Although, if we had the chance to play Norwich over a two leg Semi, I would be confident of beating them. No matter how crap we are form wise, you can always bet on a Norfolk win. :p
     
  11. Pob

    Pob Reservist

    But in the unlikely event we got into the play offs we would have had a late season surge bounce and therefore we would be the form team with momentum.

    Nothing indicates we will have the bounce as despite beating BC it was not an inspired performance. Its crazy to think we still have a very slim chance after the horrors of the season. Even crazier to think that if we had just held on against Hudds and Cov we would be right up there.
     
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  12. davisp2

    davisp2 Reservist

    Lol. Is this thread still going
     
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  13. RMT79

    RMT79 First Year Pro

    We will not make the play offs
     
  14. Lubaduck

    Lubaduck First Year Pro

    We have had so many "last chance saloon" matches recently and given that we are still in the mix for 5th and 6th spot it pretty much shows how poor the Championship is this season given our form since the WC break . I thought we were pretty much done after the Huddersfield\Coventry debacles but no here we are still hanging on to the coattails of the chasing bunch .

    L*t*n and 'boro are nailed on for the play offs , and this is wishful thinking, but wouldn't it be great if somehow we got into the play offs and knocked L*t*n out or even won them ?.
    My prediction : Watford 1 (1) v (0) 2 Cardiff
     
  15. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Yes but contemplating next season now.
     
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  16. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Its making less grammar mistake's thats important

    Those early games against Sheff U and Burnley (and possibly Middlesbrough) were tough and close, even though we won them, but I didn’t think those teams were that great. Since then I’ve come away from almost all home games thinking the opposition weren’t ‘all that’, which has made it doubly disappointing when we haven’t beaten them.
     
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  17. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    It will be closed around 10pm Wednesday night
     
  18. Happy bunny

    Happy bunny Cheered up a bit

    That assumes our players have the same level of ability/commitment/coaching as the others. I assume that we're more sh1t than they are.
     
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  19. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    The problem is we also aren’t all that, and I’m sure the opposition have often come away thinking exactly the same thing about us.
     
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  20. Since63

    Since63 Squad Player

    I think you meant to say ‘enter the field of play alongside Man City’…we hardly ever ‘play against’ them.
     
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  21. Lubaduck

    Lubaduck First Year Pro

    Agree with this although I thought Middlesbrough were the best of the bunch early season .

    Ever the optimist IF we can somehow put 2 wins together between today and Saturday then it
    could put as into a very strong position going into the last 2 matches given yesterday's results
    and the fixtures other side's have , Blackburn have Coventry PNE Burnley Millwall and Looton still
    to play.
    If we did stumble into the play offs then no one can say that we didn't deserve it as a 46 game table doesn't lie , it will just mean that we are the most average of an average bunch .
     
    EB Hornet likes this.
  22. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Over the season we've gone from HMSPTL to 12th place but IF we win our last 5 games, AND IF the 6 teams above us hit poor form, MAYBE we can sneak into that 6th place and be lucky enough to play the 3rd placed team in the POs.
    It ain't gonna happen :).
     
  23. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    HMSSTPO baby!
     
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  24. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    HMSPTPO surely ?
     
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  25. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    Burnley were unlucky to come away from ours with nothing, Boro was nip and tuck, but I thought Sheffield United were pretty **** at ours, never thought we'd be so far behind them
     
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  26. Lloyd

    Lloyd Squad Player

    I've got some bad news for those who think we still might squeak into the play offs - there's no such thing as Father Christmas
     
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  27. Lubaduck

    Lubaduck First Year Pro

    ....but we can still hope !!
     
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  28. GoingDown

    GoingDown "The Stability"

    ffs you could have used spoiler tags
     
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  29. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    It's ok. He's bluffing.
    upload_2023-4-19_10-42-35.jpeg
     
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  30. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Hahahahahaha
     
  31. Smudger

    Smudger Messi's Mad Coach Staff Member

    NNNNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

    Will we make League One. We will if we keep this bunch of pigeon hearted turds.
     
  32. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    “3 straight wins” etc etc
     
  33. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever Administrator Staff Member

    Well don’t have to worry about that now !
     
  34. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Administrator Staff Member

    Mathematically we can still finish 5th. So I guess the thread continues.
     
  35. Happy bunny

    Happy bunny Cheered up a bit

    I was too optimistic.
     

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