Werewolf XVI: Day 9

Discussion in 'Old Games' started by 352, Jun 11, 2015.

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  1. sonofben

    sonofben Reservist

    Thought it would be a good idea to post the last couple seer/wolf messages along with Matt's theory to give us somewhere to start today
     
  2. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Apologies if you didn't want your identity known but the wolf knows they are the only evil player left so they have free kills every night
     
  3. sonofben

    sonofben Reservist

    No worries, once you outted your self, there was no advantage to being the sole mason.
     
  4. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I think one of us would have been lynched anyway if I didn't as we were the only two named so felt it was time
     
  5. sonofben

    sonofben Reservist

    Well from the messages and now outing it would seem we have a 1/4 chance of winning tonight, not terrible odds
     
  6. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Nope, and tomorrow the odds will be 1 in 3 if a confirmed good is killed I think
     
  7. sonofben

    sonofben Reservist

    I don't foresee the wolf killing anyone else but either me or you, for the reason it would shorten the odds that much unless the guardian picks the right on of us to save.

    Edit: nvm, my math or maths was wrong.
     
  8. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    So I'll have to vote in just over an hour... do we have any leads at all?
     
  9. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    I'll be going with merchman or steve harrow, with absolutely nothing to go on. Unless someone suggests a better theory by 6.
     
  10. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I suppose that's sound enough logic. The guardian will then have to view either you, opti or Nairobi tonight so at least we can try and figure out who they are to know for definite who is on team good
     
  11. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    Newbury 16:30

    merch is Sugar Lump (7/2)

    Steve is Crack Shot (11/2)


    If merch wins, I vote Steve and vice versa
     
  12. sonofben

    sonofben Reservist

    Any one find it odd that Narboi hasn't been attacked yet? Unless I missed a day he was saved
     
  13. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I think that based on the assumption squibba was the new wolf he has been saved. Havent checked this though
     
  14. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    Crack Shot won, so I'll be voting merchaniseman. Will leave it for a while in case anyone has anymore theories.
     
  15. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I've had to vote as no wi-fi in my flat.

    Think we have narrowed it down quite well now but I'd be surprised to survive the night
     
  16. sonofben

    sonofben Reservist

    I am just saying I don't think we should take Suqibba's assertion he was the new wolf on face value. The Alpha wolf would have said the same thing,
     
  17. merchandiseman41

    merchandiseman41 Reservist

    Not me guys but like you I have nothing to go on. I shall be going for Steve though but will leave my vote till about 6pm.
     
  18. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    Okay so I've been through all the voting patterns and to me, not a whole lot stands out except for:

    I can't see that Merchandise voted on day 5; and
    I can't see that WatfordTalk voted on day 6.
    Gentleman, please let me know if I've got that wrong.

    I was the only person left who wasn't convinced by Harrow being lynched and whilst that was proven correct, I did go for Abso who was also good!
     
  19. merchandiseman41

    merchandiseman41 Reservist

    Why has nairobi been given the all clear?
     
  20. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    "nothing to go on" but you've picked me why? And why advertise the fact? Presumably it is to lynch a villager?
     
  21. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    He was named good in the same message as Mike was named good - and on the same day as Mike was named evil. Mike was good and not a tinker so we can assume it was the Seer who declared Nairobi as good.
     
  22. sonofben

    sonofben Reservist

    That is the theory, however, a wolf did turn, and unless Squibba just really didn't care about the side he had been drafted on, he could have been the alpha wolf, meaning someone else turned
     
  23. nairobi hornet

    nairobi hornet Reservist

    I was given the all clear based on the theory that squibba was the new wolf and I had been cleared. I amleaning towards steve or merch aswell
     
  24. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    But Squibba wouldn't have known the alpha wolf in that scenario was Nairobi and had been declared good. I read the death scene like Squibba was the new wolf but it isn't 100%, no.
     
  25. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    Hi, this is from 352 on Day 6:

    "WatfordTalk is on his way home but might not be able to vote before 8. he got in touch. If he misses the deadline this is his final warning. I have given other players final warnings if they get in touch within an hour or so of the vote closing so that's the way it'll be this time."

    So, that was my bad
     
  26. sonofben

    sonofben Reservist

    I don't think that 352 would give out player roles so blatantly in a death scene, without announcing the role at the death, but I could be wrong.
     
  27. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    And there was 7...

    SonOfBen - outed as a Mason so is GOOD.

    Merchandise - unknown. Not mentioned in any messages.

    Naioribi - PROBABLY GOOD. At this point in time, I think we have to accept Nairobi is good in order to concentrate on more likely players.

    Optimistic - unknown. Not mentioned in any messages.

    WatfordTalk - unknown. Not mentioned in any messages.

    Norironhorn - outed as a Mason so GOOD.

    Steve Harrow - I know I'm good but to you, I accept I'm unknown. Not mentioned in any messages.

    Of those of us left, this was what Matt said yesterday and it seems accepted he was the new Seer:

    Merchandise and WatfordTalk were the only players Matt was feeling might be evil and lo and behold, he was killed last night. Unless new evidence or theories come to light beforehand, I'll be voting for one of those two.
     
  28. 352

    352 Moderator

    merchandiseman also said who he would have voted for if i recall correctly, despite missing the deadline. That's why he got away with it.

    I have given people every chance to continue in the game as I know people have lives away from the forum (yeah, sure you do). I have faced a little bit of criticism for this actually though - in the cemetery more than in here - but I feel it's best to play this way. Though quiet play as a tactic can get confused with quiet play as necessity, so it's not exactly foolproof.

    I suspect the next person who runs a game of Werewolf will be less accommodating to those who fail to vote, but that'll be that game, and this is this game.
     
  29. 352

    352 Moderator

    I should also say that there's a fair chance today's write-up will be similar to this morning's, i.e. not one of the longer ones. It's my mum's birthday today so I'll be a having a few drinks and stuff and don't know when I'll be back. Apologies in advance, but it should be pretty much fine, maybe just a bit later than usual.

    Village still closes at 8pm as per usual.
     
  30. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    Some good points from Steve, and I think we should have something to go on tomorrow, though we don't have long left now. mechandiseman had the unlucky horse so I've cast my vote now.
     
  31. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Apart from the people he viewed though, wfcmatt won't know any better than the rest of us. I.e he knew Nairobi was good at a time and that I was good but that's about it
     
  32. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    I know. Matt wouldn't know more about people not viewed than we all do but he did know which messages were definitely from the wolf and where those messages might be sending us.
     
  33. merchandiseman41

    merchandiseman41 Reservist

    Mate I literally have no idea but Im not really going to vote for myself.

    Its you, me or Nairobi I think that need to be looked at therefore your name came to mind. Sorry but thats the way it is.

    I made noises about Nairobi last week but then swayed away from him.

    I have to go out now, so will be voting shortly. Guess I have to do some sort of lottery like everyone else
     
  34. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    ok ive voted for merchandiseman today.
     
  35. sonofben

    sonofben Reservist

    Well worst case. One less person to choose from tomorrow
     
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