Discussion in 'Old Games' started by 352, Jun 4, 2015.
Click on the number of votes a person has
I get what you mean, he does seem to be the only one who's being suspected at the moment. But is it worth the risk of getting rid of someone who may be the seer just because there is no one else to vote for?
well the other choice is to vote for moog to see if the theory is correct on Norway, these are the two he put in the frame.
Are we any nearer to knowing the miked is the seer than we are that he is a wolf? I have seen nothing anywhere close to concrete evidence. Don't forget that he could even be the alpha - he would be able to guarantee he's mentioned then as well.
Any of us could be the seer realistically - it's not like they're going to be shouting off about it.
all went well by the way
I'm leaning towards this way as well.
my only thought is that if he wasn't the seer, after he "guaranteed" he would be mentioned, the seer had the perfect opportunity to cast doubt on his guarantee and leave him out to dry
The wolf has played a blinder here by giving us just one option
Good point - and what are the implications for Nairobi if Miked is the wolf? Looking through Miked's previous posts, he makes statements that suggest he knows more than merely suspects but there isn't a viable and LOGICAL alternative to him for tonight. I am however open to reasonable and well argued suggestions.
I wonder if one of the wolves is quite active and hiding in plain sight and the other is deliberately quiet. There's a couple of players who were very active early on but now the wolf numbers are down, say as little as possible.
I'm fairly sure miked and Nairobi are both good based on the messages. I genuinely don't see the point in voting one of them off for the sake of it when the message says they're both good, particularly IF there's the slightest possibility miked is the seer.
I'd be more inclined to go for someone who implicates or has been implicating them over the last few days. I have a funny feeling the really quiet ones are possibly key players too who have decided to play a 'lurking' game and who haven't contributed much to anything over the game so far but who have been happy to 'follow the crowd' shall we say.
For those who think we should give miked the benefit of the doubt, who are you suggesting we vote for instead?
The style of the messages has slightly thrown me too but, as someone said previously, I don't think you can draw too many conclusions from that. I just can't get away from the pointers Norway left. If he was the Witness, then suspicion has to fall on miked. Not only did he vote for him, but he also said he thought the message saying miked was good was from the Wolf. This theory falls down if he was the Seer, as he would not know if miked was good or evil - just that the message saying he was good, was from the Wolf. * If he was the backup Seer or martyr of course, he wouldn't have known anything for sure and all bets are off. But then why would you bet completely against the crowd unless you knew something?
* edit: actually, it would tell us more. If Norway knew that the message originally saying miked was good was from the Wolf, it would mean subsequent messages referring to miked being good were also from the Wolf and that today is the first time the Seer has viewed him.
Lots of good points in the defence of miked but still no concrete alternate suggestions. If he is the seer, we'd get a new one anyway. And as someone alluded to, if we don't lynch him, the likelihood is (if he's not a wolf), he'll be eaten tonight anyway.
I love this game :]]
Day 1 - message 1
Day 1 - message 2
Day 2 - message 1
Day 2 - message 2
Day 3 - message 1
Day 3 - message 2
Day 4 - message 1
Day 4 - message 2
So I'm not a fan of comparing writing styles although those that are can perhaps make out something from all the messages together - although bear in mind the Alpha Wolf may have changed at least once.
But maybe there's information in subsequent messages that mean we can rely upon previous ones more or some other hints?
Just got back from an exam. I could provide concrete proof that I was in an exam from the time the wolf posted if 352 would allow it, but I guess as the wolf I could have sent the message to coincide with the middle of the exam or something, if you think I'm that sneaky.
I'm just going to go through today and see if I can find any weakness in the wolfs messages.
Ive been really quiet tbh. That's due to work commitments and social life. Yesterday I didn't get in till 5 is then went straight out to play guitar in my band. I would love to spend time sat all day analysing and debating options.
For the record I believe I'm good if not a contributor to the village discussions. I do however read all posts.
I've been one of the leaders of the lynch miked team but after the analysis of the writing styles it is hard to argue that we should vote for Miked.
And as we no longer have a traitor, my theory about him persuading us not to vote Cude is no longer valid.
I think he might be good but where does that leave us?
Which would also mean Nairobi is good.
Only thing that doesn't agree with this is Norway's actions
If we assume the message correctly telling TVOR was good was from the Seer, the other message that day told us Miked is good would be from the wolf. The wolf wouldn't have known TVOR was good but may have mentioned him purely to arouse our interest. If Miked is the Seer, would he really have told us that he was good on days 2, 3 and 4? Tad excessive and it's clear to most that if you're named in a message as good or bad, it often results in your lynching eventually. But that applies equally to a wolf.
Whilst I said I don't read much into writing styles, there's a particular look about 1 message per day but is that too obvious? Would the Wolf not have copied that style by now?
In summary, I haven't a clue.
I might pull it out of a hat.
I have a feeling PO is a sneaky f***er.
Maybe Oxhey Hornet?
Ok, cards on the table, I have no fricking idea.
I am on the comparing writing styles is a dangerous idea bandwagon, especially since we have been talking about comparing writing styles since day one. That being said, with little else to go on, it is going to be an interesting day. Oh and good afternoon all
With very little else to go on does the Norway theory have the most merit? That's where my thinking is right now
all the messages that are the same start with good morning villagers from your seer on day2, 3, 4, these are the ones that are linked together which then means that Mike is actually good if these are all the seer, Im edging towards moog today for the vote although as with yesterday and Darave, im happy to go with Miked to clear up the messages which will then prove to everyone else I am good if he was, or my theory is right. Something does not sit right with me about moog from Norway, the way he attacked me so much yesterday and trying to go for me this morning.
It can't be a coincidence that 4 of us have our suspicions about Moog.....
I'm going to lead the way, i'm voting Moog.
I'm almost tempted to agree with you when you say moog is a possible.
That is so far from the point it's untrue. We don't want to go losing any seers. The more we have remaining, the better the chance of us prevailing and managing to correctly view and lynch all the wolves.
I wasn't pointing any fingers. Nibble nibble
I think I've missed something, what evidence do we have against Moog? As if we are calling Miked good, then we must discount Norway's accusations of anyone
I forget who did and can't be asked to go back and search though all the days, but I would like to see the list of how many posts people make a day. With little to go on today, I would like to take a closer look at the people who have been quiet all game.
This. If we go by Norway's actions it's both, if not it's neither. We need to decide if we want to follow this route.
having just looked at norways posts its rather random but he did pronounce Miked as good at the start of day 2 which I missed but then goes on to vote for him.... maybe to leave a clue which I suspected first or maybe because he was trying to stop himself being attacked by the wolves for voting for someone random. He did attack moog and accuse him of being a wolf. The question is if he was the witness, did he leave us another clue somewhere other than moog - definite, miked - maybe.
wow crazy busy day at work, poorly horses all over the place. will just be a quick message as reading this from my phone in a layby.
I think Nairobi and miked are both good, however we have absolutely nothing else to go on. im going to have to cast my vote now as I will be out for the rest of the day and am on-call tonight so don't want to get in trouble for not voting.
miked, im afraid im voting for you as there is still a slight question mark over you. I see no other possible vote, and if we start lynching people on zero evidence then our current good position could slip.