Werewolf XVI: Day 2

Discussion in 'Old Games' started by 352, Jun 2, 2015.

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  1. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    4 wolves started the game and 3 attempted kills last night so presumably he was a wolf?
     
  2. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    Makes sense. Haven't really had much time to read the intro for this morning.

    I've got such a bad day at work ahead of me, is it sad this is the only thing that's keeping me going?
     
  3. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Looking back through the games, the wolves nearly always vote for the obvious person on the first day.

    They often are pretty quiet on the first day, vote late, and go with the crowd or the obvious choice to arise the least amount of suspicion.

    As the wolves do not know who the other wolves are, voting for Cude proves absolutely nothing, except that you are part of the crowd that blends in well and aren't sticking their head above the parapet...
     
  4. darave8

    darave8 Forum lucky person

    Sorry if I have to spell this out for you both....

    If message one was from me AND I was the wolf. Then message two would have to be the seer, right?

    Therefore I would know, without doubt, that Cude was evil.
     
  5. Jellyman

    Jellyman Squad Player

    It's important that we don't get too focussed on the people who argued for and against Cude. Both arguments had their merits, and I admit I was torn in the end.

    Cude ended up being evil, but could just as easily, on what we knew, have been good. Then Philippine Orn, Miked et al would have been vindicated.

    The key question for me today is trying to work out why two werewolves went for Otter. Seems unlikely to be chance, but it could be.
     
  6. Norwayhornet

    Norwayhornet Squad Player

    I think he meant the way he voted last night ie voting for cude . I still think Darave is on team good , lets wait for the messages before we start going down blind alleys eh! if we get no messages then we can revisit the darave investigation .
     
  7. Abso

    Abso First Year Pro

    unless fox in the box is the 4th wolf
     
  8. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    See my post above, what are you talking about?
     
  9. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    If you are evil, and you know Cude was evil, you are going to kill the person who is arguing most strongly that Cude should die.
     
  10. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    No a clever wolf would go with the crowd so as not to stand out.
     
  11. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    In the Tavern yest eve,
    Cheerful crowd in the main,
    Relief, respite and good times,
    A wolf had been slain.

    And a win for the team,
    A double it was said,
    Unlucky for cude >2<,
    A hattrick, and dead!

    Pure luck or a plan,
    Be sure no man could,
    A sacrifice for "the team",
    Is the Alpha male that good?

    One questioned remained,
    A wolf kill ever so soon,
    Did folk see the night sky,
    Could there have been a full moon?

    But celebrations cut short,
    For 2 cold chilling screams,
    Heard by all folk,
    But were they both dreams?

    All glory swept aside,
    Good Simms and Otter departed,
    In the depths of the night,
    In true blood coldhearted.

    So day 2 begins,
    Let finger pointing commence,
    Who'll speak up,
    Who'll be sitting on the fence?

    One thing be certain,
    One thing be true,
    Better watch your back,
    Or the next one could… be you!
     
  12. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    Beautiful.
     
  13. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    Sounds like wolf talk to me!
     
  14. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Ah sorry, I think I've confused you. I'm agreeing with you.

    A clever wolf would wait and see the way the vote was going and then vote with the crowd. The crowd went for Cude unanimously, so I think that it is most likely that the wolves will have voted for Cude.

    My point was about the killing of the wolf after hours. The wolves do not know who is evil, and so will go for the person who seems most 'good'.

    Simms looked most good by being the strongest to argue that Cude should be killed. Similarly, if you had been killed and were evil, Opti or I would have been targeted.

    The killing of Otter is more suspicious.
     
  15. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    Excellent write up 352.

    I'll hold my hands up for yesterday where a couple of votes convinced me to vote for tVoR without much evidence. Luckily it didn't matter in the end.

    Can someone explain the logic of the Guardian saving darave?
     
  16. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    Agreed. 2 Wolves drawn to the same villager? He must have hit a nerve so would be well worth reviewing his posts!
     
  17. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    Maybe the Wolves are L*t*n fans??
     
  18. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Maybe he was sending us a message and evil are the goalscorers

    Or maybe I should wait for the bloody message.
     
  19. Jellyman

    Jellyman Squad Player

    This would be absolute genius tbh.
     
  20. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    Otter speaking about TVOR:

    "I have a gut feeling and gone for TVOR early."

    "If Cude is lynched turns out to be innocent, then other than the problem of me being forced into a half-time substitution, then I suggest the seer sees TVOR tomorrow."

    "Scouting for blood me thinks and has shied away from taking part in the match."

    Also speaking about WAS:

    "With A Smile's back-tracking over a small comment is a bit suspicious if you ask me."
     
  21. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    not a great night and we know very little more until we get today's messages

    I'm not about most of this afternoon but will catch up when I get home

    352 - can you make the messages a sticky at the top of the first page so they are easy to find ?
     
  22. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    Maybe he suggestion that he wants the seer to view TVOR touched a nerve.
     
  23. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    The chances are, the traitor is someone who was in the don't vote for Cude group as the vote was tight enough (If it wasn't tight they wouldn't have bothered trying to save them).

    We've seen how people can easily be swayed to vote so getting the traitor is pretty important.
     
  24. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    Given the number of votes for Cude and VOR, there is likely to be a wolf or wolves in both and let's not forget the traitor. You're fixating on those who based on the limited facts quite rightly voted for Cude and got a result! Those who targeted VOR and encouraged others to do the same are not above suspicion either.
     
  25. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Any idea who Simms was closing in on, apart from Cude?

    We also need to consider which of the players who were trying to steer us away from Cude, may have been the traitor. Hopefully the Seer will view one of them today. If we get rid of the traitor, we have less chance of being led amok by their misdirection.
     
  26. Jellyman

    Jellyman Squad Player

    Just so I'm clear, do we know that the game started with 3 wolves? If so, they all acted last night, making Cude the traitor?

    Correct me if I'm wrong.
     
  27. darave8

    darave8 Forum lucky person

    I agree. Those steering us away from voting for Cude yesterday, must be our focus today.
     
  28. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    Morning all - can't say I'm a fan of this hangover, but after wiping the floor with the scum, and picking up an assist playing at the heart of the defence for the first time, liking up with Cude one last time was a good send off. Amazed that he was evil, but it's a whole different kind of great result on the first day!

    I'm a little saddened nobody wanted to hear about the hops, but life goes on.

    With regards to Otter's death, I am surprised about that, and also about the guardian choosing to protect darave... Seems an odd thing to do and does seem to cast doubt on whether the second message was actually the seer or if the wolves got unluckily and struck one of their own. Hopefully today's messages clear that up.

    I think today's messages will be very important, and if we get as lucky as we did yesterday, it may be worth sticking to the facts again even if we can't be certain which message actually came from whom yesterday.
     
  29. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    Throwing this totally into the mix, let's keep an eye on With A Smile.

    His interaction with Otter yesterday was slightly suspect. And one point when Otter accused him, he replied about something completely different and didn't even raise an issue by defending himself.

    Also, he was heavily pushing for Diamond to go, again trying to push the attention way from himself. Then once it was clear Cude >2< was a gonner, he went surprisingly quiet.

    Just one to watch! Still waiting for a message!
     
  30. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I'm also on the lookout today for 2 posters ganging up on people. Remember that two of the wolves now know each other, so they will probably aim to back each other up. It's almost like having two new traitors.
     
  31. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    If you read an earlier post quickly, Otter was one of the main protagonists in wanting to vote TVOR and now look, he's dead. Otter was trying to get the seer to look at TVOR, not many people noticed that post but it could essentially be TVOR trying to ensure he doesn't get viewed? I suggest the seer looks at him today.

    I was stupid in voting for TVOR myself though, admittedly as there was a lack of evidence. However, now there seems to be some evidence.
     
  32. darave8

    darave8 Forum lucky person

    I don't trust those that have voted out of the norm.

    WAS
    Son of Ben
    Squibba
    TVOR
    ASBO

    I think there is some evil in that group. Trying to stay under the radar by essentially wasting their vote.
     
  33. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    That's fair enough but we still have an unresolved question hanging over you I do believe.
     
  34. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I like lists, so let me go with one to see if it helps the logical thought process;

    1. TVOR has been under a lot of suspicion and almost came a cropper yesterday, though I'm not aware of any evidence against him other than erratic behaviour, which is normal for TVOR.
    2. Cude was named as evil and so, with no other leads, it made sense to vote for him, even if only to clear him from suspicion. Anyone who not only voted against this and also campaigned against it, could be a traitor.
    3. Darave was named, probably by the wolf? Possibly by the seer. I don't think we're any the wiser about Darave than any other players right now.
    4. Fox in the box has been inactive. He could have a key role. Plus foxes are related to wolves.
    5. Simms and Otter were targetted by the wolves. Simms, fairly clearly because he was onto Cude and was talking sense. I don't think he was the seer as I believe we get told when the seer dies. Otter was a strange one. We need to work out who might've had a grudge against him, as the odds of two wolves picking the same random player with no other reason, are low.

    Any other leads or considerations?
     
  35. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    Thank you for reminding me. I had forgotten I was going to ask TVOR his reasoning behind his vote for Miked.
     
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