Werewolf XVI: Day 1

Or new.

If the first message was the seer then the 2nd should have cast confusion by naming Darave as evil, meaning all focus was on a good player today. "If".

 

Very good work!

First day is always a lottery to the point you have to take everything with a pinch of salt. Bizarre the two messages came so close to eachother and so early as that doesn't happen too often!

 

maybe very cunning

 

Similarly if the second was the seer, and the first is the wolf, then darave also looks suspicious in addition to Cudey?

 

I think we should lynch Meh! just so we don't have to listen to any more of his terrible poems :sick1:

 

With A Smile's back-tracking over a small comment is a bit suspicious if you ask me.

BTW I have 6 players for tonight's match so far, need another 5

KO will be 7:15 and I will try to do BBC style text commentary. 8pm will be half-time where the entertainment will be a lynching, the gallows will be wheeled out into the centre circle.

As this thread will be closed I'll give the final score tomorrow morning.

 

Cude or darave least we got one wolf in 1st 2 days!

 

By the way, I'll be scouting at the match tonight, to see if any of you are good enough to step up and play professionally for my team Cassiobury Rangers.

 

Hi All - Avon calling!

I would love to play football tonight, as the thought of being surrounded by 21 hunky men in shorts makes me quiver, however, I have decided to branch out and am hosting my first ever Anne Summers party tonight. There will be wine and nibbles, if HeppyHornet wants to join us? Any wolves who try and visit will get a Silver Giant G-Spot Hammerer right up the bumholio. You Lupines have been warned!

Of course, i won't be able to sell it after its been up a wolf's ****, but since I get them cost price, I think it'll be worth it.

 

I'll ref. I do a bit of that in my spare time anyway.

 

Can we ask as the Parish Council not to get too much blood on the pitch. Its booked for a juniors tournament this Saturday and the WI have a bring and buy cake sale on Sunday.
If you could use the patch of overgrown nettles so the south side of the ground this would be much more practical.

Thank you in advance

 

If you are short of players Otter give me a shout and I'll lend you a few of my youth squad for the night to make up the numbers.

 

With regard the messages - Please stop with the "hunches" and "guesswork."

As in past games, we need to stick to logic, especially where we have only two messages to go on. Otherwise we're just ******* in the wind.

If the first message is the Seer, then Darave is good, which means the second message is from the wolf, which means Cude could be either good or evil and the wolf is just throwing names out there to divert attention at random villagers.

If the first is the wolf, then again, the wolf might be just mentioning Darave's name, in order to divert suspicion his way. Any named player will end up in the frame and is rarely likely to survive more than 2 days after a naming in a message, so again, a clever wolf could be sowing discord. If that's the case, the cude is either Evil or a tinker.

Any decision about which message is which is pure guesswork at this point, but the balance of probabilities says that our best chance, IMO is to lynch Cude today.

He's still probably most likely a good player, but at the moment, we have no other reason to suspect anyone else. We need to start somewhere and to win the game, we need to make decisions based on the messages.

 

that made me laugh thanks

 

Just don your boots, anyone who doesn't want to be there is going to be under my personal suspicion. HH24 cheerleading and Diamond reffing may exonerate them. Moog's knicker sales patter doesn't cut much ice with me, however if he holds the sale in the clubhouse then I would suggest it acceptable.

 

Amended.

 

It’s been suggested that Wolves,
Do not like a verse,
A dislike of a poems,
Is truly a curse.

So anyone who states,
A dislike of a ballad,
Should be instantly lynched,
And cooked with a salad!

 

Afternoon all!

Lovely to be able to come and at lunch and have the messages already here. I've been busy cooking up fresh apple pie, so make sure you grab yours for an after-match treat. Speaking of the match, I'm happy to play Otter! Usually a "no-nonsense" (no skill) midfielder, but resigned to being shunted to whichever position I'm needed!

 

Re. the messages - It seems rather unlikely that the seer would strike lucky out of 31 villagers... but can we afford to completely rule it out? First instinct (as others have said) is first message seer, second message wolf. As we have no other information, seems to me like we have very little option but to choose between Cude and Darave tonight.

 

Truly only evil would mistreat a bard,
Rhyming and couplets are terribly hard.
We should value our wordsmith and enjoy his work,
But if he's suspishers, we'll mob lynch the berk!

 

To me, lynching Cude would tell us more about Darave than lynching Darave would about Cude. If the 2nd message is from the Seer then we have us a Wolf or tinker. It's the way day 1 works unfortunately, you get named and you're a dead man walking.

 

Morning all.

The most likely option is that the seer found an innocent - 4/30 I believe.

Darave showed cunning in the last game, but I think claiming yourself as innocent on the first day would be a little bit mad, and a very high risk strategy. I'd wait until I was into the process to clear my name.

So the odds are very high that the wolf and the seer both have no clue who is evil, and so todays killing is down to guesswork.

Ignoring a post would just open us up to more trouble down the road, so we just have to logically go with the one called evil for now, until more clues open up. There is always the possibility that the wolf has accidentally gone for a wolf of his own.

But until more comes out, sorry Cude, it has to be you.

 

Interesting first messages. A couple of observations:

1. If the first message is from the seer then I am good.
2. If the first message is from the wolf, then I'm still in all likeliness good, as he/she wouldn't know my role and would be trying to cause confusion.

I do agree with those that think it's unlikely for the seer to find an evil player on day one but I don't see another choice but to vote for Cude at the moment.

 

According to the role thread there are 4 wolves, a traitor and 2 tinkers. 7 from 30 to choose from, only just worse than 1 in 4 chance of getting an evil response.

Until Cude comes on and attempts to defend himself then that's where I may vote

 

Sorry for the late post. I have been busy out at the local trade fairs stocking up on stock and goodies for my Merchandise Store.

I shall be in attendance at the match tonight with my mobile merchandise stall selling all manner of village related memorabilia including some very nice Werewolf Bottled Beer from Newcastle coming in at a palatable 4.5%

 

Afternoon all. I agree with your reasoning that getting rid of an experienced player is a solid tacit. However is early is the game, it seems almost too blunt to call out one of the more experienced players for no reason.

 

Also Otter, if the team is not full up, ill give it a run out. I played some defense at what you all would call University.

 

an interesting read as always. the first day as others have said is always a little bit of guesswork, but as far as I'm concerned the easy option here is to vote for cude. that being said i would not underestimate darave either, he probably would have the balls to call himself out on the first day.

 

I'm going to take this as a compliment

 

It could be that the wolf has identified Cude as a very experienced player so has tried to get him out early?

 

I agree that's perfectly plausible but on day one we don't have much more to go on. As a named evil, Cude is either very unlucky or a wolf/traitor/tinker.

 

I agree, I looked for Cude posts recently and found this:

Could it be that the wolf has looked back for players who admitted they won't be around on certain days knowing they wouldn't have the time to defend themselves.

My opinion is that the first message was the seer and the second was the wolf. I can see the seer's thinking by selecting Darave as he did so cunningly well last year. Therefore I think Cude is innocent unless the wolf has inadvertently implicated another wolf.