Werewolf - Road To Qatar - Day 4

Discussion in 'Werewolf: The forum game' started by Otter, Nov 21, 2022.


Day 4 Lynching

Poll closed Nov 21, 2022.
  1. AshdonWFC

    0 vote(s)
  2. HappyHornet24

    0 vote(s)
  3. miked2006 (eliminated)

    0 vote(s)
  4. OptimististicHornet

    0 vote(s)
  5. TomWatfordFC

  6. tonycotonstache

    0 vote(s)
  7. wfcmoog (eliminated)

    0 vote(s)
  8. wfcSinatra

    0 vote(s)
  9. With A Smile

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  1. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    After a torrid end to Friday a huge sandstorm whipped up and no progress was made by the travelling hoard, the only howling that could be heard was the fervent sound of the winds outside as everyone had cowered to their tents.

    The winds blew throughout the weekend making progress impossible, until eventually late on Sunday night the winds stopped. Having been kept awake by the noise and the thought of missing the opening match in Qatar, Steve Leo Belleck peered outside of his tent, it was eerily silent, he clambered out fully and stretched his arms and legs to relieve the cramp. Suddenly he felt a warm breath from behind, he looked and stood there was a huge wolf looking very hungry. Frozen in terror, poor Steve did not react, the wolf quickly killed him and feasted for the first time in many nights.

    Steve Leo Belleck was good.

    Awoken by the noise, AshdonWFC sat up in his sleeping bag and listened intently. Nothing. Then some scratching around. Then nothing again. Getting out of his bag he pulled the zip of the tent down by a tiny bit and could make out a figure outside. Suddenly the figure moved and shouted "KEEP BACK" just at the same moment a set of claws ripped though the side of the tent, Ashdon rolled away and saw the guardian stood over him, they had their silver dagger held out at arms length pointing to at a wolf just a couple of yards away. The wolf looked at Ashdon and then the dagger wielding guardian and ran away.
  2. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Due to the England game kicking off at 1pm I will close the game from about 12:30 and re-open it shortly after.

    The Wales game kicks of at 19:00, so ideally I'd like to finish today at approximately 18:30.
  3. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    Good Morning

    1st the Guardian is an absolute legend and is playing a blinder. With out them it would be a lot lot worse.

    No idea what to make of Friday. I expect there will be some thoughts about tinkers, reverse traitors, double agents and what have you.
  4. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Hi all.

    NI was the tinker.

    No reason why you should believe me. Tell me who to view, then kill me and it'll at least prove the first messages were from the seer.

    Sorry everyone.
  5. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Reservist

    Hello campers. I think I have come to realise I genuinely am absolute trash at this game.
  6. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member


    First of all RIP Steve but well done Guardian. Also, sorry norn and team good for Friday. No real excuse - thought Mike was evil from day 2 (when I voted for him); was convinced norn was good but lost my nerve at the last minute. I should have trusted my instincts but instead was swayed by the thought of people thinking I was stupid for potentially voting off the seer.

    Anyway, I’m going to have a look back at Friday’s play to see if I can work out why the wolf and guardian were both interested in Ashdon. But one thing I am pretty sure of - Mike is the traitor not a wolf. The good news is SLB was not described as “ very good” so I assume we still have our Seer. We need to hope they find a wolf in today’s viewing so, Seer, please do not rush today’s viewing but think carefully.
  7. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    No way norn was the tinker - Mike is the traitor. Going to look back at Friday now. Back in a min with any thoughts…
  8. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Let me know who to view of the following:

    wfcSinatra (almost certainly not a traitor)
    With A Smile

    If there's a tie, I'll go with Moog's choice.

    I'll then send my message telling you guys to put me out of my misery.
  9. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Does the tinker know that they are the tinker? Because if they do then Mike is definitely evil.
  10. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Haha Mike - I admire your chutzpah and I applaud you for your game play on Friday.

    OK Team Good - I have had a look back at Friday’s play and check out post #269 written by our, ahem, “Seer” (ie traitor Mike)

    “Whatever happens, remember Ashdon is good. Unbelievable as it may seem.”

    Now go back and look at who started - and continued - a conversation about how the traitor might try to steer the wolves about who was good. That is one of our wolfie friends I believe, and that is who I think the Seer should view.
  11. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    No the tinker doesn’t know that - they just know they are good. I’ve been the tinker before and it’s a shocker. However, I really don’t believe that’s what happened with norn.
    wfcmoog likes this.
  12. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Do we think we have 3 evil and 6 good left?

    I am inclined to believe the evil are 3 from WAS, Tony, Mike and HH24.
    On that basis, I would like Mike to 'view' one of WAS, Tony, HH24.
  13. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Interesting. Which set of messages do you think were from our actual Seer?
  14. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Reservist

    I've been viewed as Good already though Tom
  15. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

  16. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Depending on which messages are from the Seer! Assuming Mike is evil, nornironorn (obvs) and moog are good, then at least one of SLB and you are good (both named good on day 3). SLB was killed and was good, which in my opinion makes it more likely that the seer viewed SLB than you.
  17. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    A summary of all gameplay so far:

    DAY 1

    Message 1, from Messenger 1 - norniornorn - GOOD
    Message 2, from Mike - Ashdon - GOOD

    Harrow Orn lynched - EVIL (inactivity)

    NIGHT 1

    Domthehornet killed - GOOD
    Burnsy killed - GOOD

    DAY 2

    Message 1, from Mike - nornironorn - EVIL (previously, Ashdon - GOOD)
    Message 2, from Messenger 2 - moog - EVIL (claims to have previously viewed nornironorn, but uses wrong code)
    Message 3, from Messenger 1 - moog - GOOD (previously, nornironorn - GOOD)

    Cthulhu lynched - GOOD

    NIGHT 2

    Horace_goes_north killed - GOOD
    Optimistichornet protected

    DAY 3

    Message 1, from Mike - moog - GOOD (previously, nornironorn - EVIL, Ashdon - GOOD)
    Message 2, from Messenger ? - Steve Leo Beleck - GOOD (previously, nornironorn - GOOD, moog - GOOD)
    Message 3, from Messenger ? - tonycotonstache - GOOD (previously, nornironorn - GOOD, moog - GOOD)

    Mike outs himself as the 'Seer' and identifies code in his messages.

    nornironorn lynched - GOOD

    NIGHT 3

    Steve Leo Beleck killed - GOOD
    Ashdon protected
  18. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    I think if Mike is evil, we can ignore anything that he has posted about any villager.
    If he is evil, then by the logic of him naming NI as evil, then who ever posted the messages about NI being good, must be the seer - no ?
  19. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

  20. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Agreed. Just that on day 3 it was less clear which message (2 or 3) came from the person who posted on day 1 and followed the code on day 2.
  21. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Guardian has massively outperformed the seer in the game so far.

    Saving 2 from wolf kills has saved the game effectively.

    Seer needs to up their game today but I think it's too early to reveal themselves. We know Mike I'd probably the Traitor, so we need to figure out what he's been trying to convince us to do/not do so far.

    Careful of confusion from the two evil messages today as they will want to work hard.
  22. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Maybe you think the code was a complete coincidence and I just happened to spot the words left and right (past world cup driving side) were 2, 0, 0 words away from the end of the message.

    But if I'm evil, surely I'm the alpha?

    I'm not, but you'll see that at the end of today.
  23. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Ok, while I’m waiting for the fridge guy to arrive, I might as well put my neck on the block and put my theory out there. I believe Message 3 on Friday was the Seer - which means that norn, moog and tony have all been viewed as good

    From what has happened on previous nights we know that, although Opti and Ashdon are unproven, both the Guardian and one of the wolves (not necessarily the same wolf for each) have thought they are good

    I think Mike is the traitor, not a wolf. The traitor’s job is to protect the wolves and sacrifice themselves, if necessary, to do so. This is the scenario Mike hoped for:
    - norn is lynched after Mike “outs” himself as the “seer”; 2 wolf kills overnight leaves 3 evil and 5 good in the game today. Best case scenario for Mike - we worry that norn was the tinker, the Alpha names a random villager as evil, we lynch them instead of Mike and lose another good villager, leaving 3 evil and 4 good players in the game - Team Evil win after their overnight kills. A slightly worse case scenario for Mike is that we lynch him today, thinking he is the Alpha; but Mike doesn’t really mind this as both wolves are still in the game and Evil is still in the driving seat.

    Luckily, the Guardian’s save has done two things for Team Good
    1. It’s left them with an extra player in the game so the odds are not so well stacked for Evil - 3 Evil and 6 Good left
    2. For me, it’s confirmed that Mike is the traitor because of the comment he made about Ashdon towards the end of Day 3
  24. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    Not necessarily. One of my theories on Friday was that both the alpha and traitor have been able to post every day. On day one, you (in this case the traitor) posted and the alpha didn't. Good way of creating confusion later on in the game.
  25. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Personally, I am suspicious of WAS because they started the conversation about the traitor directing the wolves and, lo and behold, Mike makes that comment about Ashdon.
  26. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Out of interest, why are you suspicious of me?
  27. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Morning all, sorry to lose Steve over the weekend. The norn call on Friday was a bit of a **** show in hindsight.
  28. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    More of a case of being less suspicious (or certain of goodness) of others rather than being particularly suspicious of you.
  29. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    I understand all the logic of the code, but that only really stacks up IF you are the seer. The fact that your message stated that NI was evil, but we have another stating he was good and then being proved to be good, put's your messages in doubt. I don't think we need to forget that it's the wolf's job to confuse and the seer's to help. Having never had 3 messages before that does cause more confusion about which evil is helping which evil.

    I can't see why you would be the alpha. Why would you expose yourself to being lynched, instead of making an extra killing ?
  30. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    yes got to say the guardian is having an absolute blinder. Good job to whoever it is.
  31. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Don’t think the Seer has had a bad game tbf - they just haven’t found an evil player. You and I were both calling for them to “out” themselves on Friday which I now think would have been the wrong thing to do so fair play to them for sticking to their guns as it means we still have them in play today. We do need to find a wolf today, though.
  32. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Exactly this.

    I am the seer. I picked the tinker.

    It doesn't make sense for a wolf to reveal themselves when no one was suspecting them. It also doesn't make sense for a traitor to have a code that points to them.

    But you have to kill me, as otherwise there will be far too much chaos in the game.

    All I need to know is who to make my final view of, before I can die and prove how unlucky team good were.
  33. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    If I remember, I haven't looked back, my concern was that if the "real seer" was in an impossible position. If they had also outed themselves then they were effectively handing an open board to the traitor.

    You made a post on Friday about there being a 3rd senario, that you didn't want to share at the time, or if you did I missed it. Is it worth sharing now? if you haven't already.
  34. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    Morning all.

    Sorry for the radio silence - I genuinely forgot this game was resuming this morning and back in the office today so a little more challenging to find the chance to get online.

    By the looks of it I am a lucky boy to remain in the game! Clearly the wolfies are concerned that I was onto something on Friday afternoon…

    I am convinced miked2006 is the traitor, so I am almost tempted to lay my vote down now. It just depends whether we can get somebody more evil with the lynching.

    I take my earlier murmurings about SLB back however, RIP. After miked’s ‘big reveal’ it became pretty apparent who the traitor was!
  35. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    The third scenario wasn’t a huge mystery - just if norn was the tinker. I know a tinker viewing early in a previous game (maybe the last one?) completely stuffed Team Good as we assumed the wrong set of messages were the seer because of it. I really don’t think this has happened here though.
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