Ukraine - Catalyst For Ww3

Discussion in 'Politics 2.0' started by AndrewH63, Feb 11, 2022.

  1. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Squad Player

    Looking at this reply I can only assume you are the only one left still feeding this troll. Just block him.
     
  2. Since63

    Since63 Squad Player

    I think Davy just WANTS IT ALL TO STOP and for the NASTY MEN to all be nice. THINK OF THE CHILDREN.....oh, apart from those living in Ukraine, of course.
     
    UEA_Hornet likes this.
  3. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    To be fair, there are a lot of supermarket workers who have been replaced by self-checkouts in Ukraine, and I think we should address that urgently.
     
    UEA_Hornet likes this.
  4. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Davy has a general point, which is reasonable and he is consistent about, which is that usually the West’s excuses for war and weapons turn out to be bloody and costly bs. Vietnam, Iraq, Syria etc etc. No one can blame him for the scepticism, surely?

    In this instance, I don’t agree with him. I think Ukraine has a right to resist and Russia is committing wholescale atrocities upon its neighbour, fired by its nationalistic campaign of hatred.

    But the West needs to tread very lightly indeed, not just because Russia could inflict terror on us too, but at the expense of missing an opportunity to end or shorten the war. At some point a peace must be found or there will be nothing left and every Ukranian the loser.
     
    sydney_horn likes this.
  5. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

  6. Since63

    Since63 Squad Player

    I was not suggesting that Davy's well-founded cynicism regarding 'the West's' involvement in the conflicts you list is wrong. I was pointing out that, in the current situation, hand-wringing and saying 'everyone's being manipulated by everyone else' achieves nothing. The proven fact that Russia has invaded Ukraine puts that conflict into a different context than those you have listed which were based on misguided/cynical/quasi-imperialist 'non-truths' peddled by the relevant western powers. Notwithstanding the multitudinous political, strategic & tactical blunders perpetrated by 'the West' in the lead up to Putin's invasion, there should be no attempts to accept any level of justification of it.

    The recent suggestions that a road to peace had to be found seem to be based upon the premise that Ukraine would have to accept losing (more) territory to Russia. Such an outcome would mean that, as a point of fact, Putin's aggression will have achieved some of the aims that led to him launching it. So, in his mind, and that of his like-minded inner cabal, unwarranted invasion of a neighbouring independent sovereign state DOES work. If the Ukrainian government decides, probably under the pressure of continued destruction of their country & population, that they will have to accept that, then obviously that decision would have to respected. But how would any such 'peace' be administered and guaranteed? I doubt the UN would be able to implement anything approaching an adequate range of measures to guarantee it, as anything that looked like restricting Russia's 'legitimate scope for action' (sic) would be vetoed by Russia. At what point do you think Russia would proclaim to the world that the government of the Ukrainian rump were breaking the terms of any negotiated peace and 'move into those areas to restore the agreed conditions'? Not long, probably. Keep in mind that Putin has publicly stated on more than one occasion that Ukraine as a sovereign, independent entity is a fiction, a construct of the organisation of the USSR following the Bolshevik Revolution and subsequent Civil War; he states quite openly it was, & should always be, part of a Greater Russia. In his view, the only people in Ukraine who do not want to be part of Russia are neo-Nazis & fascists. I doubt he will be able to allow even a core Ukraine to survive unless it is entirely subservient to Russia, in the manner of Belarus. Seeing Ukraine existing as an independent nation, and moving ever further towards 'the West' and away from Russia, is the very articulation of Putin's fury at the 'humiliation' of Russia after the end of the Cold War. It cannot be allowed to remain in existence as anything other than a Russian puppet state.

    What should the stance of 'the West' be if Ukraine decides any fate may be preferrable to living under Russian control, in whatever form that takes?
     
  7. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    All good points and there are no obvious answers.

    If there is a peace with Russia annexing large amounts of Ukrainian territory, there will be continued disappearances and ethnic cleansing. To prevent that will be a long fight with tens of thousands lost. It doesn’t look easily winnable right now.

    I agree that if Ukraine wished to agree a settlement on the basis of losing territory, that’s its decision. Equally, if it wishes to fight on. We should support either. We simply have to be careful that we don’t impose a solution that makes the fight continue long after there is nothing for Ukrainians to gain.

    I also agree that Russia’s aim is to fundamentally weaken the Ukrainian state. Even the Kremlin may be able to see that imposing another Belarusian type government won’t work. It’s aims now appear to be to take as much territory as possible and then, by a strategy of intimidation and tension, suppress the rump Ukrainian state indefinitely.
     
  8. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    If any settlement does involve Ukraine giving up territory to Russia I doubt very much if it will encourage Russia to take more land in the future.

    There is no doubt that this conflict has been disastrous for Putin and Russia. If they can find a "face saving" way out that gives them a "victory" I don't think they will want to re-engage any time soon, especially if the west continues to support Ukraine with weapons and finance.

    But, as others have said, if Ukraine are unwilling to give up territory then they should continue to receive our support. Only they, as a sovereign nation, make that call.
     
    iamofwfc likes this.
  9. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

  10. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Doubt it. It's more likely they'll be used as bargaining chips.

    Sentence them to death, leave it hanging in the air as a threat, leverage that to get a concession from the UK government, and potentially dissuade other foreign fighters from getting involved.

    There's really no upside to executing them, particularly given the large number of Russian soldiers who have been captured.
     
    iamofwfc likes this.
  11. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    I’d have probably said the same at the outset of this war but I’m far less certain now. I don’t think Putin is gaming things for upsides, nor gives two hoots about his captured soldiers either. I’d give these two less than 50% chance of escaping the firing squad.
     
  12. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

  13. Davy Crockett

    Davy Crockett Reservist

    On "our side" eventually you mean ?
    Molotov Ribbentrop anyone
    Anywho I get bored with ignorance
     
  14. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    I agree Putin likely doesn't give a monkey's about his soldiers (the state of their equipment and rations is testament to that), but he does care about getting suicided.

    The best way to ensure a coup is to lose support.
     
  15. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    Resistance isn't futile:

     
  16. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

  17. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

  18. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    One for the IT geeks - this just popped up on ARRSE. I'm really interested in your opinions:

     
  19. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Cybersecurity has been getting more and more important for the last few years, especially given the number of organizations moving to the cloud, and the number of attacks have been steadily increasing.

    I can't say that I've noticed an enormous surge in bulletins, but I don't use CISA as a source so perhaps they've just stepped up their warnings or lowered their tolerance threshold.

    Russian groups that are state sponsored in all but name have been a problem for years, so it's not like they've just suddenly started getting up to no good. They basically get carte blanche to do what they want by the Russian government, as long as they only attack foreign assets and don't operate against Russia.
     
    Bwood_Horn likes this.
  20. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    War in a critical phase as Russia takes Severodonetsk. At the moment, Ukraine’s only win is the degradation of Russian forces. They have made each victory costly, but this goes two ways. Ukraine lost many soldiers, killed or captured and Severodonetsk is pretty much flattened.

    The most likely outcome to the war at the moment appears to be the complete annexation of the Donbas followed by stalemate. In the meantime, truly horrific.
     
  21. Davy Crockett

    Davy Crockett Reservist

    "The white liberal differs from the white conservative only in one way: the liberal is more deceitful than than the conservative.
    Both want power, but the white liberal is the one who has perfected the art of posing as the Negro's friend and benefactor.

    Malcolm X

    Who could he possibly be talking about ?
     
  22. lm_wfc

    lm_wfc First Team

    Are you lost?
     
    UEA_Hornet and Steve Leo Beleck like this.
  23. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

  24. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

  25. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

  26. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Some indications that the Russian advance is slowing at Kherson and that Ukraine’s new long range weapons have destroyed supply lines to the front.

    This means that Russian forces at Kherson may be isolated. The outcome here may determine the next phase.
     
  27. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Is this thing still going on? Who commissioned another season?
     
  28. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Netflix. They throw money at anything.
     
  29. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

  30. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

  31. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    Think there's something in the Geneva convention about Biological weapons. We can't be responsible for Boris sowing his oats over there.

    Unless it's a cunning ruse to get Truss imprisoned.
     
  32. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    This nutter does reviews of military rations (and yes he's given himself botulism before eating around 100 year old canned food). It's funny seeing the Ukrainian rat-pack as the food is very similar to what I ate in endless Lithuanian valgyklai (canteens) over the years - with the exception that the food in a valgykla was generally swimming in fat/lard, served lukewarm and the bread (black/rye and white) was fresh and generally very, very good (so much so that if you're ever near a Litho shop I would advise you to try some - their black bread is one food that ex-pat Lithos really, really miss).

     
  33. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    OK, it's a PR puff piece and it's Piers "farking" Morgan BUT:

     
  34. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

  35. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Yesssss. At last something different - a new plot twist has emerged as rumours abound of Serbia planning to invade Kosovo. NATO statement says the situation is very tense but they are ready to intervene. Doubt it’s an invasion mind you. Seems like it’s a spat over papers required to cross the border.

    AC95B931-A21C-4317-BC46-450F31402B03.jpeg
     

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