The Stats Thread

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by EB Hornet, Sep 2, 2023.

  1. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    I appreciate some people only care about one stat and that’s the actual result of the game, the points on the board and the league position.

    But I love a stat.

    @reids (or anyone else) would it be possible to update the expected goals for and against league table in here each week? Plus any other interesting (for people like me) stats in here throughout the season?

    Those who hate all this stuff can obviously not return, or pop in to mock stat lovers like myself!

    Thanks in advance!
    Hogg-DEENEY!!! and reids like this.
  2. reids

    reids First Team

    Will do tomorrow when SB updates!
    EB Hornet and Hogg-DEENEY!!! like this.
  3. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Administrator Staff Member

    A bit like we had last season but it sort of got forgotten (not surprising considering how shyte it was). I'll pin this thread - so @reids or whoever wants to can update after each game.
    EB Hornet likes this.
  4. reids

    reids First Team

    Will post the stats from each match in here rather than in the match day threads, along with the xG difference league table each week.

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    - Coventry won the xG battle, although a good chunk of that was from the penalty (0.78 xG)
    - Rajovics first goal was 0.41 xG and his 2nd was 0.42 xG. Martins goal was only 0.05 xG (0.55 PSxG)
    - Their FK goal was only 0.03 xG


    Top of the xG Difference table (that's the real quiz) although it's missing the WBA/Huddersfield + Norwich/Rotherham games. We've conceded the least amount of xG in the league (3.48 xG) which backs up that we're causing our own issues by being sloppy/poor GKing.
  5. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    Love this, thank you @reids plus an extra doff of the cap for The Office quote which made me chuckle.

    We look in good company amongst that top 8, looks like VI system is working well, hopefully the players can put a couple more away and cut out a few of the errors and it could actually be a decent season!
    The Voice of Reason likes this.
  6. reids

    reids First Team

    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Pinched a win in a tight game.

    - Our lowest xG score this season.
    - Rajovics goal was only 0.05 xG and Andrews goal was only 0.03 xG.
    - Our "best" chance of the game (aka most xG) was from Porteous in the 78th min (0.09 xG).
    - With 0.83 xG they also didn't create much - especially since their 2 best chances (0.37 xG + 0.21 xG - Bachmanns double save) came from the same passage of play.
  7. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    Thanks @reids , we’ve had games with the better XG and not won and now the opposite.

    Funny old game eh Saint
    reids likes this.
  8. Captain Mandibles

    Captain Mandibles Academy Graduate

    Thanks Reids, great stats as always. I'm interested to know though why the model for the two Birmingham chances in quick succession adds the xG together, when they were clearly not independent events.

    To give an extreme example, if a team had a penalty (0.75 xG) which was saved, but then presented an easy tap-in on the rebound (e.g. another 0.75 xG), it would seem odd to say that the penalty was worth 1.5 xG! Whereas to me it would seem more logical that a fair xG for that passage of play would be less than 1 but greater than 0.75, as the second attempt only happened because the first attempt was saved.
  9. reids

    reids First Team

    Yeah I fully agree, whilst it's useful to have the xG values of both shots (to rate keeper + attacker) it does seem illogical to include both in the final xG values. There doesn't seem to be a definition of "cumulative xG" that's in the match stats for each side but that could be a way of adjusting it (since that is lower than their overall xG)?
    EB Hornet and Captain Mandibles like this.
  10. Heidar

    Heidar Reservist

    Shows how good a header it was then
    reids and EB Hornet like this.
  11. BigRossLittleRoss

    BigRossLittleRoss First Team

    Also the second Bachmann save we had 2-3 players blocking the ball behind him and I think XG only accounts for defenders between the shooter and the keeper not behind. .
  12. Ilkley

    Ilkley Formerly known as An Ilkley Orn Baht 'at

    @EB Hornet, you asked elsewhere if I had any stats up my sleeve, so to speak. So, for you, and any other stats fans here is a ranking of all current league clubs.

    I have given each a score, based on the tiers they have played in over the last 30 seasons (including the current one), so from the third Premier League season onwards. I have weighted the tiers, 16,8,4,2,1 so the maximum possible score is 480. I have then expressed these scores as a percentage of 480.

    I am pleased to see that we are ranked 24th, comfortably in the top 30 (a la GT's hope) and that our lovely neighbours do not make the top 50.

    EB Hornet and reids like this.
  13. reids

    reids First Team

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Tight game with some good goals.

    - Martins goal was worth 0.04 xG and Inces was worth 0.07 xG
    - Kones first half 1 vs 1 was our best chance of the match, worth 0.21 xG. His header in the 2nd half was our 2nd best chance, worth 0.16 xG
    - Their FK goal was worth 0.08 xG and their 2nd was worth 0.14 xG.
    - Bachmanns save against Thomas-Asante in the 79th min was their best chance - worth 0.30 xG (42% of their total!)
    EB Hornet likes this.
  14. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    Nice work, like the concept / idea you’ve come up with. Good to see we are that high, and in good company there. The Pozzo era must have risen us up this table - although if you did the 30 years up to the Pozzo era we maybe were similar as this would include GT’s first top flight era?
  15. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    Thanks @reids i really like this stat analysis after the games. I’m surprised our XG wasn’t a bit higher but I guess our 2 goals were great strikes.

    Very pleasing how few chances we give away, which seems to go against everyone’s fears about our style of play. From what I’m seeing (more so at home) we are keeping possession and regaining it pretty quickly.

    On that last point, is there a stat available for how quickly each team recovers possession? It seems to me we are doing this very quickly this season.
  16. reids

    reids First Team

    Yeah there's a few, Passes/Defensive Action (also known as PPDA) is probably the best for measuring that. This stat basically counts how many passes a team allows before making a defensive action (tackle, interception, foul), meaning a team with a low PPDA allows less passes before they manage to disrupt the opponent (basically they're successful in pressing more). As you can see, you're correct and we have the 3rd lowest PPDA score in the league (a good thing!)

    FromDiv4 and EB Hornet like this.
  17. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    Awesome! Thanks for the stats and the explanation. I’ve very much enjoyed this part of our game this season.
    reids likes this.

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