The Final Games

Your hit rate is about 33%. If Watford’s hopes rest of you having a turnaround in form forgive me if I lump on Brentford!

 

After such a bad, demotivating result today, I think Brentford and Swansea's failure to win straight forward home games has gone under the radar. Ok, they've both closed a point on us, but it could have been so much worse.

We are still 6 ahead of Swansea on level games and 8 clear of Brentford with them having a game in hand (which they have to win).

4 games to play. Swansea will probably have to make up 7 points on us because our GD is superior by 12. Worst case scenario is Brentford have to make up 5 points on us, but will probably beat us on GD if that happens.

Unless we now beat Norwich and Millwall, it's highly likely we'll need to at least avoid defeat in our final games. Of course it's all still our hands and if we get the breaks (unlike today) we should still have enough. However, this choking is part of Watford's DNA and is a hard habit to break.

We'll probably have to rely on both Swansea and Brentford getting a couple more bad results, or else I can see us getting overtaken at the final hurdle. Being dumped into the play offs with Bournemouth and one of Brentford or Swansea, really doesn't fill me with too much hope. I think it's auto's or nothing.

Brentford's ceiling is now 89 points and Swansea's is 88. If we win the next two that should be enough.

 

After today, if we beat Swansea at home it's impossible for them to finish above us, no matter the results in other games (barring a big goal difference swing). We obviously don't want to rely on this though as in the worst case scenario it would mean going into the final game three points behind.

 

If Bournemouth win at Norwich today, do we consider they've joined the party? They'll then be on 74 points, level with Brentford and just 2 behind Swansea and 8 behind us.

 

Blimey get a grip. I bet in another life you were still expecting Germany to win the war in December 1944.

Many people expected us to get a draw at the kennel, and the teams below us getting home wins. That would have resulted in them getting two points closer to us. The results in that sense were ok. It is the performance that needs sorting. Time for Gino to type up a P45 on Wednesday morning. If we fail to get a point.

There is work to do, but the other sides have to do lots of work to be in a position on the final day to pip us to the second automatic slot. Four points from our four games might be enough.

 

This is the weirdest reply I’ve seen in a while. Well done.

 

You’d certainly say so, in my head though I’d still place them as outsiders, simply because they’ve been in great form for a while and to pip everyone they’d need that great form to carry on for another 4 games. Of course that could happen, it just seems to me that in the championship it’s pretty difficult for a team to win more than 6/7/8 on the bounce before their form turns again for a bit. They’ve won (and if they win today) quite a few on the bounce now, and that will just to catch them up to the chasing pack. I know what I’m saying doesn’t really make a huge amount of sense, they could win the next 4, but such a winning run is pretty rare for any team.

 

Maybe .
But they play Brentford next . And they both can't win .

 

The way I feel today I can't be certain of that!

 

Good post .
Most sane people would have taken a point today and expected our promotion opponents to win
Swansea and Brentford drawing means we are in a better place than expected

 

I really want Norwich avoid defeat tonight now. Keep Bournemouth at bay but with enough of a sniff that they play Brentford with hopes of overtaking them.

 

Believe it or not we need to be Muff supporters this week !!

 

We'll scrape in by our foreskins. Disco is an idiot and will keep the same 11 over and over (excepting red cards) even though we're crying out for some grunt in midfield.

 

Norwich already one up, 5 mins in

 

In which case we need to try harder at present!

 

He's not an idiot but IMO he needs a bit of know how .
**** Town were going to be up for this . It was their cup final.
We needed to match their enthusiasm

 

This is the aspect that baffles and infuriates me in equal measure.
I didn't know about the pitch debacle but they were clearly going to run around and get in our faces.
Why weren't we ready for it?

 

The saying ‘it was their cup final’ is normally a bit of a cliche as well as being used disparagingly when it’s often not actually true. In this case it was exactly bang on.

For a manager like Nathan Jones he can’t really achieve much more than what he has, survival. The biggest single thing he can do beyond that to ingratiate himself with the fans is engineer a win over us. The fact that they’re comfortably mid table gave him the perfect scenario to be able to engineer that win at all costs.

The fact that we didn’t expect this, or have an answer for it is extremely poor from us indeed with so much at stake.

 

I posted a similar point regarding getting shafted by Muff. And because we change boss so often
they never get the chance to redress the balance

 

Astonishing isn't it?
They were hardly likely to let us pass through them.
You always have to win the physical and mental battles first.

 

Some good news from the Narrich game so far is that they have had their winger Giannoulis sent off so he will be banned for Tuesday and Pukki has gone off with a knee injury so he might not be fit for Tuesday night either.

I kind of wish Muff were not winning though as they would have been even more up for beating Brentford next Saturday.

 

Best tell Delia.
She'll make a nice salad and accompanying dressing!

 

I don't think she needs an excuse, given previous history!

 

Don't matter, who cares. If Brentford get promoted good for them. If we get promoted we are going to have a **** season and finish 20th anyway.

 

Surely you should respond in Spanish if not Catalan?

With four games to Go with at a minimum a five point advantage on our rivals,would you swap of position with them?

 

Oh dear! I was right

 

I said the international break came at the wrong time for us and it's looking like I might have been right

 

At least the international break doesn't seem to have done B & S any good neither tbf. Tactically we seem to have been worked out (and even before the international break, our last two good performances were at home to Brum without Sarr which may have messed with their plans, and against a Rotherham side who were rusty after a Covid-enforced absence), maybe fatigue is starting to set in too (maybe WTE is particularly struggling as he had a heavy load with Nigeria), though the players we've missed most of all during this time, Chalobah and Masina, their absences yesterday were nothing to do with the international break

 

In all fairness they were virtually relegated with the squad that they had when they went up, we had plenty to sort out so it was always going to be a slow start for us. All things considered they are not that far ahead. We started the season with 18 players out had no idea who would be staying or going and our star player was still in Africa. Not to mention we had a new manager who was probably the wrong choice for our position.

 

I'm no maths guru, but I reckon another 12 points from our next 4 games would give us a fighting chance of maybe sneaking promotion.

 

My Run In Predictions (Updated from #209) Edited 20th April 2021

WATFORD
Boro away 1pt - As Predicted
Reading home 3pts - As Predicted
Luton away 0pts - Edited Had Predicted 1 point
Norwich away 3pts - Edited Had Predicted 1 point
Millwall home 3pts
Brentford away 1pt
Swansea home 3pts
Edited Prediction Now 14 points

SWANSEA
PNE home 0pts - Edited Had Predicted 3 points
Millwall away 3pts - Edited Had Predicted 1 point
Sheff Wed away 3pts - As Predicted
Wycombe home 1pt - Edited Had Predicted 3 points
QPR home 0pts - Edited Had Predicted 3 points
Reading away 1pt
Derby home 3pts
Watford away 0pts
Edited Prediction Now 11 points

BRENTFORD
Huddersfield away 1pt - As Predicted
Birmingham home 1pt - Edited Had Predicted 3 points
PNE away 3pts - Edited Had Predicted 1pt
Millwall home 1pt - Edited Had Predicted 3 points
Cardiff home 1pt - Edited Had Predicted 3 points
Bournemouth away 1pt
Rotherham home 3pts
Watford home 1pt
Bristol city away 3pts
Edited Prediction now 15 points

Looks like Swansea are out of automatics now as 9 points behind us with 3 games to play they also have a vastly inferior GD, so although they are not mathematically out of it they are as good as. Brentford are now 10 points behind with a game in hand so in theory they could catch us as 12 points are still available to them. However, Muff have come into the picture so could gate crash the party, but we would have to implode and they would probably have to win all their games.

WATFORD - My Predicted Total Now 92 points

SWANSEA - My Predicted Total Now 80 points

BRENTFORD - My Predicted Total Now 83 points

 

If......and it's one of those big IF's, we win our final 3 games, I believe we will win the league.

After losing to Luton, I thought that was that, however, looking at Norwich's last 3 games, I think they will drop more points. We can get 94 points. That maybe enough. What a cherry on the top that would be.

 

It would be nice, but I just can't see it happening.