The All New Political Polling Thread

Discussion in 'Politics 2.0' started by Moose, Oct 21, 2021.

  1. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

  2. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

  3. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

  4. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    SNP with 37 and Reform on 7 seems a bit unlikely but overall it's looking very bad for the Tories.

    At least they will be the official opposition based on those numbers, which is some compensation for them I guess.
     
  5. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    I've changed my mind. Reform UK Ltd seem to be on a bit of a populist run at the moment, similar to pre Brexit.

    It defies all logic that people think that these grifters care a jot for them and their wellbeing.

    Just like Trump, the Reform UK Ltd leaders know exactly what to say, and which buttons to push, to get turkeys to vote for Christmas.

    I can see Reform UK Ltd doing well over the next couple of weeks in their pursuit of Labour voters and achieve 7+ seats now.
     
  6. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    We’ve had 30p Lee but inflation now means it’s £3.41 Nigel.

    IMG_5232.jpeg
     
  7. CarlosKickaballs

    CarlosKickaballs Forum Picarso

    https://www.whtimes.co.uk/news/24394147.reform-uks-jack-aaron-defends-saying-hitler-brilliant/

    Reform candidate, Jack Aaron thinks Hitler was “brilliant” and that President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was “legitimate”.
     
  8. Since63

    Since63 Squad Player

    Does that mean it's £3.41 to get in, but £10.23 to get out?
     
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  9. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

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  10. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    upload_2024-6-30_17-3-8.png

    :(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(
     
  11. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Libs and Reform squeezing the Labour vote but do not despair. There is no universe where the Tory vote is going up. If people vote tactically, he is out
     
  12. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    Lib Dems as the official opposition. If that happens the Tory party will implode, which is a good thing. What is a bad thing is I don't think they'll be strong enough to be an effective opposition. Not that I have any faith that the Tories would be either.
     
  13. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Interesting:

    IMG_0770.jpeg
     
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  14. Pob

    Pob Reservist

    I hate the Tories. However, I'm starting to get anxious about the prospect of the labour landslide that I've been hoping for.

    In the scenario of a likely Tory humiliation then Refotm could become the second party to more and more people or worse Farage could make a bid for Tory leadership, or if not him than someone equally right wing like Braverman. In 5 years time when Labour have failed to stop the boats and if the economy has not picked up then someone like Farage could conceivably get in. This combined with the Biden led Democrats imploding, France right wing success and a Putin victory could be bleak.
     
    hornmeister likes this.
  15. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    The poll is a little deceptive, in as much as its asking only those voting Labour and we know there is a lot of planned tactical voting taking place. So a large chunk of that is going to be the tactical voters who are simply voting for Labour to get the Tories out.

    Even so you would like to think that that's not the only reason they are voting for a Labour government, you would think that The economy, their policies, a fairer society, cost of living, the NHS, better funding for public services would be more than a total 14%.

    Its a real example of what a previous poster said, governments lose elections rather than oppositions winning them.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2024
    UEA_Hornet likes this.
  16. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    If Labour can’t solve many of the issues facing the UK, that sort of politics is inevitable. Neither Labour or Tories will be able to prevent it.

    My guess is that Farage is a fire eater and will have burned himself out by then. He’ll rarely attend Parliament if Reform lack traction and move onto some other scheme.

    There is no reason why Labour can’t do well enough with the economy or deal with immigration effectively. My next guess is the next election will fought on other issues.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2024
    UEA_Hornet likes this.
  17. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    That’s the problem of making it one choice. It’s meaningless.

    Why is getting the Tories out so important? Because of everything else on the list.
     
  18. Pob

    Pob Reservist

    I dont think Labour can solve immigration, at least not to the satisfaction of people who it is a big issue . However if the economy improves i think immigration becomes less of an issue so hopefully youre right
     
  19. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    I agree it's a dangerous period coming up and I suspect the tightrope Rishi was hoping to walk was to put his party out of the firing line for the next 5 years but to be in with a chance of getting back into power after that. That's looking like an uphill struggle based on the polls.

    I think the biggest thing we need now is calm, competent and honest administration of government. Some of the solutions that have worked in the past probably won't this time around as I don't think there's money for them. I think there will be some positives to harness though. The economy is recovering, albeit slowly and no thanks to the current lot in charge. Interest rates will start to go down, as will NHS waiting lists. I don't think we're a priority for the EU but I think we can make mutually beneficial inroads there.

    Labour really need to be laser focused on 'everyman' policies over the next 5 years. Things that benefit the most amount of people most of the time in their day to day lives. Yes, some will be small and some will be slow burners. But better that than tiresome culture wars and constant competitive bidding so you local council can maybe get some new planters and a fountain 3 years from now.
     
  20. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    I don't think Labour can solve anything, certainly not in one term and there's a real danger that the far right could capitalise if the main upshot of their term is tax rises.

    To be honest I think they really need to play it slowly, look to steady the ship. Crack down on tax avoidance schemes, and park some of their expensive plans like GB energy. Essentially mirror their election campaign. Aim to not rock the boat. The Tories are in such a state that if Labour just do slightly better then they're a safe bet for another term.
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2024
  21. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Net migration is forecast to fall and if Labour can address the most visible aspects with a bit of decent administration, processing people efficiently and ‘safe routes’ they may be able to satisfy most people.
     
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  22. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    Yep and as UEA says NHS waiting lists, interest rates, slight economic growth and stability in inflation should give them a good base to start. They almost have to do very little for a short period, but it will show some quick results.

    The issues will come after a budget when we see what the cost of the tax increases will be and how it hits peoples pockets. It's only media rumor but if there are increases to inheritance tax, capitol gains and increases to council taxes its going to cause some upset. Council tax especially, if people don't see an improvement in local services.

    He has a year with his VAT on schools, with the budget not likely until October, to sort out school places and specialist teachers, which were two of his headline policies.
    NHS waiting times and 40,000 extra appointments without giving junior doctors the rise they want will be more difficult.

    GB energy will become his elephant in the room, as he has to change the entire way fuel bills are calculated before it could possibly show any return or rewards (highest electricity energy source - gas/oil is used to calculate the energy cost, not the lowest - renewable. So if Gas/Oil generate 20% of energy and renewable 80% it is currently calculated on the gas price being the highest.

    I'm going for his first minister to be sacked to be Wes Streeting or David Lammy, probably Lammy for saying something stupid or Streeting for taking donations in some form.

    The feller who will be bought through the ranks quickly is Chris Ward in Brighton, formally Hanbury ventures, who has handled all Starmers personal donations outide the party for the last 8 or 9 years.
     
    hornmeister likes this.
  23. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    RE IHT I think that if it's increased then they need to look at the primary home allowance. It unfairly penalises those in the south. Personally I'd take the primary family residence out of IHT as long as it's passed to direct spouse/descendents. You could then feasibly tax all other inheritance at the recipient's tax rate. This more fairly points it at those able to pay rather than penalising an estate. It also takes some of the onus off the executor.
     
  24. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    The key I'd say is to get any tax rises done early. I'm not sure whether SKS is going to be decisive enough but that's really what it needs. Get all the pain out the way in the first 6 months, while your stock is high, and accompany it with a credible 'what you get in return and when' plan for the next 4ish years. And the 'pain' isn't just going to be about tax rises. For example, to have any chance of success on the economic growth front they're going to have to pass some pretty sweeping planning reforms which will disempower the traditional interest groups, busybody parish councillors and other NIMBYs. That'll get the chattering middle Englanders up in arms, along with the Mail and the like, but it needs to be done, even if it costs Labour 30 seats next time around.

    There very much needs to be a seize the moment ethos about the next 18 months in particular for the new government. The bigger the majority the less on the defensive they should be.
     
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  25. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Would have to get Angela Raynor involved in defining 'primary family residence'. I've heard that's her specialist subject...
     
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  26. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Thinking about this a bit more, if Labour can make tangible progress on some of the home front stuff in a first term in office, even if Reform does rear up big time and become the likely party to battle against, a shrewd move might be to make the 2028/9 election about our relationship with the EU and/or the cost of Brexit.
     
  27. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    :D

    I'd set a rule something like the deceased had to have been resident and registerd to vote at the address for 7 years minimum or would need to provide landregistry/sale of house chain details to show it was the main residence.

    The only issue I can see is it promoting divorce and or multiple mariages. That's the issue with wealth taxes like this they're never infallable and individual circumstances can make them unfair to some. Maybe limit it to one per inheritor and tax at receipt rather than before the estate is settled.
     
  28. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    This poll has swooped in late and shows a notable drop for Labour support only:

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/labour-holds-18-point-lead-over-conservatives-final-ipsos-election-poll

    Still not enough to change the outcome but striking they have Labour down 5% and Starmer himself down 10% as best PM candidate in a week. Seems a little bit OTT to me but maybe the supermajority tosh has had an effect in the end?

    Only really posting it here because it's IPSOS who do the big exit poll released at 10pm, though that's obviously a totally different methodology.
     
  29. EnjoytheGame

    EnjoytheGame Reservist

    Just had a Lib Dem volunteer knock on the door reminding me to vote. Asked him what his sense was from the doorstep and he said: "Touch and go. It's very Conservative here, isn't it."

    It is an extremely Tory ward in a safe Tory seat. Incredible really. People voting for five more years of all this. I suppose living comfortably in a comfortable place, immune to the issues that affect people elsewhere, insulates them somewhat.
     
  30. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Not surprised at that and have thought for a while Labour may come in under 40%. They’ll take that all day long if it means a decent majority.
     
  31. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    I think a lot of pre-election pondering was get the Tories out, but I wonder if some people said "Labour because not Tory" and might well have last minute switches because of the project fear campaign around taxation and the fact that it's been a fairly lactustr campaign all round.
    The shy Tory/reform vote will I think put a dent in predicted Labour figures also.

    Not long to wait.
     
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  32. V Crabro

    V Crabro Reservist

    It's very important that maximum damage is inflicted on the Tories, as a warning to future governments that if you abuse the mandate and trust of the British people, there will be a day of reckoning.......
     
  33. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

  34. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Going to be a cliffhanger!
     
  35. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Not even close in the end.
     

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