Oof. Poll published today by YouGov. https://x.com/pollingreportuk/status/1790340893058150580?s=46&t=oqOMSJXE_g7J5C7kNPG9LA
The plan is working. Don’t ruin it now. At least that’s what the leaflet from my local Tory MP said when it came through the door today. Odd for him to be actively campaigning. Previously one of the most marginal seats in New Labour times but he’s solidly held it for the last few times, increasing his majority. Must be in play again.
How sad that only 5% of the population really care about our planet. No wonder mankind is killing it.
This is a great example of how polling can be deceptive. The question wasn't who will you be voting for, but who will win the next general election. If anyone who was asked had listened to the question or read it correctly then it would be 100% to Labour. A better poll would be, how big a majority will labour have.
Apologies, I should have posted a link. Despite the headlines, "who will win...." was not the question asked of the public. In fact this is actually the result of a predictive model set up by the New Statesman in 2021. Here is the link.... https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts
Explain yourself? The opinion poll said only 5% said they’d vote Green. What’s this got to go with the electoral system? It was an opinion poll about voting intentions, not one predicting number of MPs etc A very bad toss to loss this morning ufff
Your claim was that only 5% of people really care about the planet, presumably meaning the same 5% who intend to vote Green. But: 1. Many other people may (and do) care about the planet, but simultaneously recognise that the FPTP electoral system gives the Greens no chance in their constituencies, so intend to vote for other parties. I would count myself as one of those. 2. At least the three major parties are broad coalitions of interests. They may well pursue 'Green' policies, amongst others, and (reverting to point 1) people may vote for them partly on that basis. IE the Greens don't have a monopoly on 'planet-friendly' policies. Yes, first defeat incoming, I fear.
I think the influence of the Greens (well, certainly of green politics with a small 'g') extends well beyond the votes they get. That said, there is every chance my neighbouring constituency will go Green in July.
I'd also add 3) It's possible to like the Green's environmental policies but dislike their other policies, and in tandem with 2) above that provides ample reason not to vote for them. I would bet 1) is the biggest driver, though. FPTP is horribly flawed system.
Yes. They certainly feel they have a good chance in Bristol Central, after their recent successes on the city council.
This can't be right https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1794634087057244557?t=Ve17XzUl-PfiK5eX0HN9Sw&s=19 Just a 14 point lead in this poll Still enough, but probably getting to close for Labours liking
It’s the higher end of Tory polling lower end of Labour’s. Now the election has been called it’s up in the air. Easy to say you’ll give the Tories a kicking, but if you are a Tory then that’s harder the nearer a Labour Government comes. Not that any old school Tories have a great deal to worry about from Labour. It’s a middling social democratic Government they are offering, not freedom for Tooting.
Tories hitting hard on Labour’s plan to remove the exemption on VAT for fee paying schools. (You what? A tax on something you buy? Outrageous!). Seems to have really upset them this one. Why would that be? Oh yes, because Tory ministers, their client media and all the prominent Brexiteers went to them. Handy website that tracks the prevalence of pay school folk throughout politics, the media and the arts. https://privateschoolmafia.com/
Apparently Opinium did something different to account for the ‘don’t knows’ in this round of polling which accounts for the smaller gap. See more here: https://x.com/samfr/status/1794446635101196603?s=61&t=n0dBF7HSu_RxVm41qwi4kQ
Poor Keir Starmer. All those years in opposition and he’s still having to explain to everybody who he is and what he stands for.
It really is a very depressing campaign so far, isn’t it. Sunak coming up with bonkers policies and trying to convince us Truss and Johnson never existed. Starmer trying desperately hard to convince us he deserves to enter number 10 through the front door rather than sneak in through the back door by default. Davey saying anything he thinks a certain demographic wants to hear and something totally different to another. The Scottish bloke moaning that the election might fall on one of the two sunny days his country is likely to see this summer. And meanwhile the planet continues to burn, and few of them seem to care.
I've seen it pointed out on X by people in the know on polling that the real thing to follow is the overall polling average, as there will always be individual polls swinging either way. The BBC has this poll tracker: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68079726 And it's worth thinking about methodology too. This shows the differences: The last two in particular produce some interesting results and it's JL Partners who the Daily Mail were trumpeting this morning because they had the poll showing Labour's lead at 12pts.
For further diving into the data, there is UK Polling Report that lists every poll and applies an algorithm to the lot. It also looks at seat by seat data. https://pollingreport.uk/
Another mega poll from Redfield and WIlton https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-31-may-2-june-2024/ There's a danger of not having enough seats on one side of the house ! The hard part is going to be keeping 530+ MPs happy and in line. There is a small danger of a single party nation, where the government can simply do what ever they want, with out scrutiny for 15 years.
Labour will almost certainly win but I really don't think the majority will be anywhere near as big as that. It would be funny if the Tories don't even have enough MPs to be the official opposition though!
I agree it won't be that massive but all signs currently point to a 140+ majority, which is bonkers given the parties' respective starting positions when the polls open on 4 July. In a normal cycle it would need what would be considered a healthy swing just to get Labour back into hung Parliament territory.
But with a level of opposition & cooperation. 2010 - 2015 a coalition 2017-2019 propped up by DUP & with the in fighting of the ERG 2022- with an ever decreasing majority So realistically only 7 years with their own majority. A majority of 400+ basically means no opposition at all.
Yeah I was being a bit flippant. Though since 2019 they've had a significant majority, even if it's eroded a bit at the edges.
Well, that's democracy, folks. If you don't like the result – whatever it is – you just have to accept it (without complaint apparently). At least you'll get another chance to vote on this one in five years' time. There's still checks and balances, though, thanks to the [checks notes] unelected House of Lords.
