But how? Break it down? Lets say he costs £3m and is paid £15k a week for the purpose of the breakdown.
We really wouldn’t. I’ve nothing against this signing but you talk as if we have never lost money on the likes of Navarro, Oulare, Sinclair, Peneranda. Using your figures do you think we made £7.5m combined loan fees on Oulare, Sinclair and Peneranda? Do you think we’d have made £2.5m by loaning Navarro out? If a player doesn’t make the grade, you don’t normally just recoup millions in loan fees.
Well we need to pay players their wages, there is no way round that. If he ends up being a half decent player for us then £15k is peanuts. If he doesn’t quite make it then we can loan him out, even if we have to cover part of his wages then we’ll still get something from it net when you factor in the loan fee. Even if we make £200k net per season loaning him out then that’s maybe £600k back after 3 years, so he’s cost us £2.4 net, how badly will this player have to have declined that between now and five years time we can’t sell him back to Scotland for £1m-£2m? So maybe absolute worse case he costs us £1m if he literally falls off a cliff from here? Meanwhile what is our maximum upside? Clearly it’s a lot more than £1-2m isn’t it? Or we get a really good player for five years. Nothing is without risk, we can’t absolutely mitigate any risk we can’t lose some money on this, but even in the absolute worst case scenario it’s absolute sod all in the grand scheme of things and the upside is potentially huge. Meanwhile we once paid more for Nathan Ellington and Deeney earns more in a year than this kids transfer fee.
We made £1m from the initial loan of Dawson to West Ham, and they're a fairly big Premier League club, a load of skint Scottish or EFL clubs wouldn't be able to pay a big loan fee plus wages lol
I’m talking about this particular transfer. A promising young lad who we’ll sign on a five year deal, and absolutely worst case scenario very likely break even over five years on the assumption he massively goes backwards from here.
Effectively all you are saying is you think this is a good transfer and won’t cost us buckets like the aforementioned players. Pretty sure you could substitute “Sinclair” for “Ferguson” in all your posts and they’d have sounded reasonable 5 years ago.
Really? Sinclair had played 3 first team games including once for Wigan before joining us, whereas Ferguson has played over 100 games. I think their similarity is pretty much nil.
Well we know that this player has performed to a fairly high standard in the SPL, so worst case scenario an SPL club would take him back. Sinclair was a fringe/youth player at Liverpool, there was never the option to sell him back into the Premier League as he’d never performed at that level. It was always more of a gamble in that respect.
Young prospect highly rated by Liverpool and who Liverpool wanted to retain. £4m a snip. How could we lose money with the loan fees and by selling him for £2m at 24 even if he went backwards? The point is the loan fees argument is wide of the mark. Use Navarro if you prefer with his 75 games.
I should add that I actually like this signing if it happens but we can certainly lose a couple of million on him if it doesn’t work out.
I think people are drunk on the notion of loan fees, and think that every player we send out on loan is a nice little earner. I would suggest very few involve a loan fee at all, and they'll be the likes of Cucho, Dawson etc. No-one is going to be paying us money for Peñaranda and Sinclair, getting any portion of their wages off our books is a result. Similar with Obbi Oulare, we sent him out on loan to a bunch of teams that spent about £200k/year on permanent signings, no way were they forking out significant loan fees to us as was suggested once. In relation to this guy, there is no point in signing him to loan him straight out and I don't really understand the mentality to people that would like this to happen. Sign him and see if he's good enough to make an impact, he's not some wet behind the ears 21 year old that's never played senior football.
At the same time, you’d have to be looking at absolute worst case scenarios for them to have absolutely no benefit and not offset at least some of the initial cost. Worst case scenario with this guy is we can only loan him out for the cost of his wages and he literally becomes worthless in terms of his transfer fee. In what world is that likely to happen? Not even worth £500k? £200k? Sure it’s not like we’ll be coining it in on loan fees, but as is often the case the truth is somewhere in the middle. If we pay £3m for him, worst case we’ll be able to loan him out for something and sell him for something, so worst case we’re on the hook for £3m - something, and best case is??
Fair points - but I think the whole debate is being had because the comment was made that he would more or less pay for himself even if it didn't work out...or that we could even make a profit in those circumstances. Of course there are scenarios where a small part of the fee is recouped, thats not being denied. I'm not sure the truth is somewhere in the middle though - loan fee's just aren't really a thing save for a small percentage of loan deals, generally those with an option/obligation to buy built in.
I think the way I'd look at it, is that it's a risk worth taking. It's still a risk, because if he's shyte or we mishandle him, we will lose money, but based on what we can see, it looks like a decent upside.
I'm assuming that he will still have some resale value, even if it's £1.5 mill, it's not excatly a huge financial gamble. If he improves slightly and you sell him for £4mill, then quids in and if he's the real deal and he ends up being a £20-£30-£40mill player then it's a REALLY good buy.
Yep. There were loads of excellent Scottish players back then. Dalglish was world-class. Yet somehow, their national side was still sh*te.
We take who we want. We’re massive. Aberdeen will accept a £2.5mil offer because they have no choice. On a serious note, if our interest is actually genuine, we’re not going to pay £4mil for him. Could see him potentially handing in a transfer request if they refuse to let him move. Seems like the sort of deal that would be an undisclosed fee.
I think you're right. Aberdeen just talking up the price. And yes, we're mahoosive, one of the biggest clubs in West Herts
Maybe we can shift a loan out to them to sweeten the deal. But now he knows there's interest he could and probably will be itching for a move and a decent rise in his pay packet.
Isn’t the Scotland squad announced today? If we’re going to sign him then it should be before the Euros not afterwards just in case.
https://twitter.com/AberdeenFC/status/1395048123022684166 https://www.afc.co.uk/2021/05/19/club-statement-lewis-ferguson/ Handed in a transfer request which the club have declined. Wonder who the insulting offer is from?
