Duxbury Out

I get you’re making a brief point but I must say that’s an incredibly one-sided narrative. You only mention in passing the impact of the EPPP stitch up between the PL and EFL clubs, which really only came to fruition in 2012/13 just as the Pozzo takeover went though. Remember, EPPP removed almost all incentive for any unfashionable club to develop the best talent as it required them to accept derisory amounts instead and put the player in charge. And the wider academy reforms put a massive price tag on running a Cat 1 academy. It costs several million quid a year and it *still* doesn’t prevent your youngsters like Sancho, Galvez etc being nabbed by City for chump change.

Harefield produced no one of note for the first team anyway. The model, while small scale, was right and I believe it influenced the national academy reforms and what a Cat 1 academy should look like. The actual output was mediocre.

 

Forgetting the youth team aspect, which provides a hit once in a blue moon for most teams like us, we do buy young promising players, the problem is we also buy far too many players over 30 and give them preference in the starting lineup, we then also extend the contracts of players like Cleverley and Cathcart who hit their ceilings long again and whose contribution to the club can only decline. That is fairly illogical, I think what people would like to see is more young players taking these players places, but of course the stakes are so high when it comes to survival. The managers who come in are expected to deliver instantly and who then as a result personally can’t afford to blood young players, so nobody is ever willing to take the risk and the cycle repeats.

 

He speaks very highly of you as well.

 

I can see both sides of the argument regarding the Pozzo's, however, I still think SD is doing a good job.

Gino is the main man, and everyone else orbits around him. Sure SD has control of the general running of things, but he's just an employee of Gino.

It all boils down to money. Watford are in a league or environment that is very challenging for an owner who has a personal wealth of around £100m. Sure, he's rich on a personal level, but he doesn't have a big backing of wealth to tap into to support a Premier League club. That's the bottom line.

I do have great sympathy for the guys running the club, because maybe we cannot really afford to be an EPL club. When we are there, we are constantly punching above our weight, trying to find the right balance of trying to sign quality against balancing the books.

It's a marvel that we are where we are and the Pozzo's have been brilliant owners for us. There's no denying that. We can all complain, but the Pozzo's have created a rod for their own back. Had they came in, steadied the ship and turned us into a solid Championship club, I don't think people would be quite so critical. They would just think, yes, getting to the Premier League would be nice, but we're not that type of club. We don't have a billionaire owner. We are at our ceiling.

The fact we are in the Premier League and not only stayed there for 5 years, we bounced straight back at the first attempt after an unexpected relegation is a footballing miracle.

However........there is a 'but' to all this. No one is beyond criticism. The hierarchy have been making a lot of mistakes, or poor judgement calls over the past 30 months or so. It's as if something happened over the summer of 2019 and Watford have never been ahead of the curve since then. They've been extremely reactionary and short-sighted in terms of planning ahead. In fact there doesn't seem to be a plan, it's all seems to be a case of "let's put this fire out before another one starts". You're never going to achieve anything while you operate like that.

I get the general malaise with fans. Losing and playing crap tends to have that affect. However, if we somehow scrapped to a 1-0 win at Everton (the first at Goodison in our entire history), going into the Southampton game will not seem quite so gloomy. First team results change the mood very quickly.

Of course, I can see the problems. No one likes the hire and fire attitude of head coaches. No one likes the scattergun recruitment approach and no one likes the apparent lack of care and dedication coming from the first team in their performances (although the latter maybe a passing phase).

There doesn't seem to be a real sense of direction and that Watford are building something special. We seem to be living in the present without a plan going forward. There is no communication from those running the club. We never hear from Gino, and Duxbury only takes interviews when things are going well, so he gets an easy ride. These are things I'd like to see change. I want to feel connected to the club far more. There seems to be a divide. An 'us and them' culture. That has to stop. This is not a new thing, it's been around for a while, and good first team results do paper over the cracks.....but the cracks are there.

Watford need a reset. The board members have to take an interview now and then, and connect with the fans. Tell us what drives them. Tell us why they want to be in football and what they want to achieve for Watford. Are we really just a vehicle to produce a few players for making money on loan fees, or is there a greater ambition than this?

 

Not sure I get this argument, really. Watford are currently in the Premier League and are aspiring to remain so, which means that any youth players that are developed have to be either good enough to play for the first team, or have some sort of value should they be sold. Watford had applied for category one academy status in 2012 but downgraded that shortly after the Pozzo takeover. I suspect the costs and requirements outweighed the probability of developing enough young players that would meet either of the two criteria outlined. And with so many other category one academies on our doorstep there's intense competition for youngsters too.

Fundamentally, what is the point of a youth system if the players it produces are not good enough for the first team? Do you go and watch academy matches as part of your support of the club? Or do you watch the first team and hope it can be as good as possible? I understand why right now – as our sores from Saturday are still healing – the idea of a vibrant, energetic team of youngsters who graduated from the academy trying their damnedest for the shirt is so visceral. But if we were watching a team featuring youth system products bump around in the bottom third of the Championship I can guarantee our complaint-o-meter would swing wildly the other way.

The only way to avoid that is to produce academy products that are good enough to play in the Premier League. That's not getting bogged down in something, that's just the way it is. Your final point is only tangentially connected – of course we want a team we can be proud of and feel connected to but, again, that's because we are all grappling with a sense that this side has been put together by two people in sports jackets pottering round Europe in an Austin Allegro while being filmed for some sort of footballing edition of Bargain Hunt.

 

Some of these arguments have been done to death. Palace upgraded to a Cat 1 recently, despite all the ‘big clubs’ on their doorstep. It makes the proposition, the club more attractive and shows that we will commit to attempting to develop the young players we have or are yet to get. We don’t have this, we don’t want this and it’s never going to be something we do. Probably because that requires a long term plan, which is a frankly laughable notion.

Even Duxbury said that it was part of the identity that the club that has been lost. But as many have said in the past on any topic he comments on that is in opposition to reality, we shouldn’t believe the words of the bloke running the club. It’s our own fault if we do.

 

Yep, fair points. I'm not saying the club is right not to have a coherent youth policy and that there aren't benefits to being a club with a reputation for trying to develop young footballers, simply that it's my opinion that in terms of producing actual players for an actual first team that's playing in the Premier League it's something of a red herring. Understandably, it becomes a target for our general malcontent in weeks of woe like this one. Not only do we have an unwatchable team, but we have an unwatchable team of hired guns.

There are fewer big clubs on Palace's doorstep, to be fair. They have south of the river more or less to themselves. Chelsea and Fulham are just about in their catchment area.

Speaking of Palace, how many youth products are in their first team? Zaha. Anyone else? One of their most eye-catching players this season is Conor Gallagher, who is on loan and came through Chelsea's academy. I wonder if Palace fans would prefer him or one of their own?

 

Mitchell started for Palace and Clyne was on the bench.

 

Mitchell was at Brentford until he was 16, which I suppose contributes to the argument for having a bigger academy to entice players from other clubs - as has happened to us a few times.

 

I think we have to accept that your point about having a team of players "just passing through" is at least partly due to the huge gap in finances between the PL and the Championship. There are many players of all nationalities who consider themselves PL players (or equivalent) and will come to Watford simply because they are in the PL. Look at all the players who got relegated with one club but were quite prepared to then sign for Wigan just because they were still in the PL, rather than drop a division. If we cannot develop good 19 year olds, we certainly can't afford good 25 year olds, so we end up signing 34 year-olds or, at the very top end of our reach, someone like Roberto Pereyra.

 

I'm not wasting time rebutting all of this, but the one with the car is the Great Antiques Road Trip, not Bargain Hunt.

 

Both of which could be said to be apposite descriptions of the #PozzoModel.

 

Bargain hunt is certainly good rhyming slang for Duxberry.

 

Think people forget just how depressing pre-Pozzo Watford could be. Fighting against relegation to League One most seasons, half filled stadiums, any semi-talented player needing to be sold when any decent offer came in. Think how quickly Capoue, Doucoure, Sarr etc would have been sold under previous ownerships.

I get the malaise about the current crop of players feeling transient, but that's usually the sad reality for small clubs in the PL, especially those who pay low wages and don't have a mega rich owner. We can't afford or attract sure things, we usually can't afford the premium of proven British players. So we need to make do with punts, and hope the majority come good, or at least provide enough to fulfil the objective of the season.

The amount of youth products in previous Watford teams was completely down to necessity, and most of them were crap, as proven by their career paths.

Also think the attitude to this squad would be quite different if fans were able to enjoy the promotion season in person.

 

Good post. The only thing I don’t quite agree with is your last sentence. The squad we have now is really not the one that got promoted, aside from a few players who have been here years. The fans will only reconnect with the team if the new signings start performing.

 

Today proves again that despite the occasional thrashings, these are the good times right now. Smashing one of the biggest, most successful clubs in the country, in their own back yard!

And you'd be rather be watching a team of League 1 journeymen and wide-eyed academy teenagers valiantly lose 3-0 at home to Morecambe? Come now.

Enjoy this era while it lasts, because it really doesn't get much better for a club like ours nowadays. Savour the highs and put the lows into context.

 

A great day for sure. It proves we can score goals.

I want Pozzo and Duxbury gone due to their poor stewardship off the pitch. A great away win doesn’t change that.

As for losing 0-3 to Morecombe to should have gone the whole hog and gone for Hanwell Town!

 

You understand the financial side much better than me, but as long as we're not in serious threat of administration and long-term financial ruin (are we?) then I'm pretty happy.

Besides the money, off the pitch I think they've been largely good, too. They've dropped the ball a few times and made a few strange decisions (long term contracts for players past their peak, Zuniga/Pape Gueye etc), but they've usually made the right calls, and the results prove that.

And in terms of upholding GT's values, again they've not been perfect, but they've named stands after club legends (could have sold them off for a quick buck), worked hand in hand with the NHS, continued the excellent community work.

Want to stress that they're not infallible and they've done many, many things that have pissed me off over the years but personally think they're likely to be the best owners we can hope for, and the alternative is almost certain to worse than our current situation.

I just chose a League 1 team at random as that's the level that was being discussed in the thread.

 

Good fair post. Financially I think we are in a lot worse spot than we should be given our income over the last decade. I do agree on field performances and infrastructure improvements would be hard to match.

 

I can think of a couple of real-life examples like what you envisaged - Sheffield Wednesday drawing 2-2 at home to 9-men bottom 4 Yeovil (I saw a video of the “highlights” of that, the standard was dreadful), and only this season, Charlton both losing 2-1 and getting outplayed at home in their first league meeting with Cheltenham. Not surprisingly, both their managers got the sack shortly afterwards.

I suppose finishing 13th in the third tier was pretty depressing, but I don’t remember a low point as bad as those two.

 

Your ability to pull random knowledge about obscure Watford games or distant seasons out of no where always amazes me (and I think I’ve said as much before), but how the fark do you know about a Sheffield Wednesday game from the best part of 11 years ago!?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_2/9369744.stm

 

The forum has its own Rain Man, fair play

 

In this specific case, more like 'Pain Man' (of the footballing variety).

 

Saw a small bakery in Paris called that

Sorry

 

Because in this case, I was reading their forum when they were about to play Hull in the play-off final with the prospect of joining us in the Prem, and I came across a thread where they were listing their lowest points as a fan, and that game was one of many that came up. I wouldn’t have known about it otherwise!

 

So with the win on Saturday are we all Duxbury In for a few days again?

 

Great post

 

Trouble is that we’ve had to spend more than our income to retain prem status. The only way we can get an extended prem run AND have better finances is if we have a 100% success rate with transfers. Operating at the bottom end of the market that will never be possible, and for every few Dennises, Capoues etc there will always be the odd Gray, Louza, etc. There will always be the odd 5 year deal that with hindsight should have been a 3 year deal etc. They’ve certainly made plenty of mistakes in their almost 10 years at the helm but in my book the positives significantly outweigh the negatives.

 

No.

 

I’m too harsh on them, but equally I think you are too generous. My frustration financially isn’t the strike rate, it is the shuffling of assets away from our balance sheet combined with the transfer strategy that focuses on player trading and maintaining agent relationships rather than the needs of the squad.

People may say we need player trading to survive, but judging by our balance sheet they aren’t very good at it. That or all the upside is in Udinese.

I’m sure my frustrations above cloud my judgement about the good things they have done. As always the reality is in a middle ground.

 

Maybe. I don't think we really know how "successful" they are at player trading. They aren't great communicators and therefore we fill the void and either give them too much credit (maybe me) or too much suspicion that somehow profits and piles of cash are being syphoned off to Udinese. Odd deals like Pussetto don't help in that respect. The balance sheet will never tell you how effective you are at player trading. Cash balance and cashflow maybe. But if we spent £100m on a player worth £10m tomorrow and took on £100m debt, our net assets would be unchanged on day 1. A players value in the BS is never representative of their current value, just depreciated historic purchase price. I can't think of too many big ticket screw-ups in the last 10 years that have compromised our finances (Gray, maybe Louza) compared to say a Bmuff or WHU. I think we under estimate how hard it is for a small club to have great finances and a competitive prem team. There will always be one or two examples of small teams who've done it more effectively that we can aspire to, Burnley and maybe for now Brentford, but they are only temporarily bucking the trend and there are so many teams with bigger fanbase and better finances well below us in the league. I think they've made plenty of mistakes but in 10 years I think the +s outweight the -s but just my view. I still think we'll go down though

 

I get both sides of the player trading argument. The Pozzo's do have a reputation of making money on players, but from my experience of what they've done at Watford, it does seem a little unfounded. Having said that, it doesn't mean that don't make money on players, they do, but they do it under the radar. Most fans will look at transfer fees. We buy for £3m and sell for £30m. Everyone gets that, and that's what is called a good piece of financial business. We've only really done that type of deal on Richarlison, Doucoure, Estupinan, Lukbakio and Ighalo. Where a low initial fee has given us a profit of £10m+. Maybe there are one or two others I've forgotten about, but those are the standout deals for me. Of course we have a few more in the pipeline in Sarr, Pedro, TDB and Dennis who will all make us money in the market. Maybe even King if he has a great scoring season.

We've had plenty of losses on players as well, the biggest being Gray of course. But you can look at players like Janmaat, Capoue, Dawson, Chalobah, Sinclair etc. All those players were signed for under £10m, but still sold at a loss. Some even given away on minimal or free transfers.

So it is a mixed bag for sure. The hidden stuff are the loan fees. This is where Watford excel. How many players do we own and loan out? Well into double figures and some of these players we'll never see. We just make money on holding their registration and getting a nice income from loaning these players out. The fee on any individual loan would be relatively small, but when you're loaning out 10+ players per season, it all adds up.

The Watford model is not for everyone but how many fans would have jumped at the near decade we've had under the Pozzo's when Bassini was owning us? 99% I would say, with the other 1% being people who didn't understand the question.

So we've got to accept how it all works, warts n' all. Some of it I find very frustrating, but it has usually all worked out for the best. Even in the most trying of times, the Pozzo's have steered us through. Of course relegation was mainly down to them, but there was a lot of mitigating circumstances which added to the failure, yet we bounced back very quickly. I think that's the closest we've come to disaster, and how bad it was we'll probably never know, but I suspect it was pretty drastic. I'm hopeful now we're going to do things a little differently. The Pozzo's know now they can get relegated so I think that is a much needed grounding stone in their thought process.

What I find the most frustrating aspect of their ownership is the secrecy and lack of communication. Also, the failure to spot the our defensive deficiencies, which has been a problem ever since our promotion back in 2014/15. I just don't understand why we invest in all the midfield talent and this season forward talent, yet ignore the easiest fix of all.....defenders. It undermines everything when you ship in nearly 2 goals per game on average......and this has been our average if you add up every Premier League season under the Pozzo's. 1.77 goals conceded per game. Far too high.

But if they keep us up this season, I think it would feel like a lottery win. Another EPL jackpot to look forward to and selling Sarr for the premium price they want, which would provide more income than debt. We'd be in a very strong position to reinvest in obvious weak areas and become a much stronger club if the board are smart about it.

 

The loan fees are massive red herring, there was something posted regarding our last accounts showing income from loan fees was down from £200k the previous year, to something like £87k during our last accounting period.

We don’t make anywhere close what people like to think we do from them, most of the time a loan is just getting salary off the books, even then we’ll be lucky if it’s all of it.

Edit: found it, it was Swiss ramble:

 

Last year, yes, but it was a bad year for everything. I'm talking about when things are back to normal and we're making around £1m on loan fees, plus the saving on salaries, plus the possibility some of these players being wanted by another club and we sell for a nice profit, as in what we did with Suarez, Estupinan and Lukebakio. Remember some of these players we loan out multiple times over their time at the club.

My point was, we sign a lot of players, but we still make money on them, with reoccurring loans and maybe a transfer fee at the end of it.

 

The year before we only made £900k more, in a normal non covid PL year, so £984k in loan fees, not even £1m quid.

It’s a total myth.