Discussion in 'Anonymous Werewolf' started by miked2006, Jun 16, 2020.
Excellent! With no Tinker in the game, we know that the Seer has definitely viewed an Evil.
50% chance of getting another Evil today, if not 100% tomorrow. Great start for Team Good
Morning all. RIP Rio, but a decent slice of luck to get one of the Evil team on Day 1!
Will try to catch up properly shortly. Busier start to the day than I had anticipated!
Well either Berlin or Istanbul is evil so that's good news for the rest of us! It's even possible both but that would be some luck.
If message 2 is from the Seer, disappointed they didn't say who they viewed yesterday.
Someone wants me dead it seems!
At least we are guaranteed an evil in the next two days and also we will know which message is which after this evening's lynching.
The game is young but I'd like to think I've contributed enough logical thought over this morning and yesterday to prove my worth to team good. To me Berlin has been fairly active but his posts are more commentating on the play than offering suggestions - a nice easy way to coast through a few days undetected.
I posted yesterday that Venice I thought Venice was good and wasn't the traitor. I however followed up by saying I felt he was least likely to be very good based on his game play so rather than picking a random and potentially killing our seer/guardian, it made sense to go for him. This proved to be correct.
If I was evil, my plan yesterday would have been to simply coast through the day in the shadows, not offer suggestions.
The odds of the seer finding an evil exactly after the wolf named a evil must be pretty high.
If I was the seer then I'd also have viewed Berlin to confirm it. If he's good then we lynch him but learn the message styles. If evil then we'd have a guaranteed evil lynching.
Plus not naming his first days viewing.
I'd be happy to vote Berlin on all that.
Plenty of time yet to go over Istanbul and Berlin's activity yesterday to see who seems the most suspect.
No need for haste.
Kind of goes without saying but I've obviously placed my vote for Berlin.
I await your review with interest.
So we're assuming that these were the same player:
- Bible messages (Day 1 message 1, Day 2 message 2), Nairobi = Good, Istanbul = Evil
- Language messages (Day 1 message 2, Day 2 message 1), Quito = Good, Berlin = Evil
Even though that would mean the wolf named you as Good on day 1?
Of course. The wolf has no idea like the rest of us and picked my name out of a hat.
Looking at the two messages from yesterday and those of today. Simply translating some text using Google is easy, finding an appropriate Biblical verse is harder and takes more effort. At this stage I'd be tempted to vote Istanbul but I agree it would be a 50/50.
Edit - assuming the message naming me was a wolf that is.
Well it appears i have little choice today.....you really don’t want to vote me off.
I don’t really have any choice other than the out myself today. I am the seer, I posted the first message yesterday declaring that Nairobi is good. I’m a little bit surprised nobody picked up on the sight clue in the first bible verse.
I also posted the second message today. Istanbul is evil, and he pretty much is certain to be a wolf. Notice the use of evil in the second bible verse.
If I survive the day then I will require the guardian to save me tonight as I expect the remaining wolf will be out for my blood.
I know this may seem far out, but possibly because Istanbul was named evil.
Agree with this. Just playing out the scenarios:
If the Seer posted first and viewed an Evil, the Wolf has to name a random as Evil. They have no other move.
If the Wolf posts first and claims to have viewed an Evil, then this makes no difference to the Seer. They'd still have only a 1/4 chance of finding an Evil (3 out of 12 players, given that the Seer knows they're Good and has already viewed a Good).
The second feels so unlikely, even more so when you consider that the most confusion is caused when all the views keep coming back as Good at the start of a game. The wolf would be far more likely to wait and see what the Seer said on the second day and if it was a Good, as probability would suggest, just name another Good so we were none the wiser.
Hope that all makes sense, it did in my head!
Why Istanbul over Berlin?
One thing I would add the messages at the end of the seers message require little more than going to google translate and typing in the phrase.
If anyone knows anything about Dutch then you would not use that phrasing for saying farewell on a daily basis. It means farewell as is in forever, and would usually only be said in a situation where someone is about to die.
Suggests to me that we have a lazy alpha wolf.
Does anyone honestly think the seer would out themselves on Day 2?
Especially before voting even really started...
Also, interestingly Berlin has just posted this:
A costly slip? After claiming himself to be the seer and the author of the bible verse messages, he has now referred to the other message as the seer's message.
Why are you so keen to protect Istanbul? At least Santiago has given a good reason to suggest the first message was the seer's you just wildly went in to saying so.
Can you not answer my question?
I gave reasons for my choice.
Great night and a brilliant morning to follow.
Maybe he has been reading my posts today explaining why I'm less likely to be evil?
I actually think the wolf has slipped up naming me. They would have been better to name a quiet player instead of someone who has been putting forward theories on Day 1/2.
If they had named a quiet player or someone trying to coast through as evil, the named player wouldn't have any of their own game play to use as an argument for them being good.
People did pick up on the clue in the first Bible verse, it was openly discussed.
the Lord gives sight to the blind,
the Lord lifts up those who are bowed down,
the Lord loves the righteous
It's not exactly subtle, is it?
Today's quote is this:
Flee the evil desires of youth and pursue righteousness, faith, love and peace, along with those who call on the Lord out of a pure heart
So if these aren't just gibberish, what's the code that could help prove you're the Seer? They're just random quotes as it stands.
OK OK, multitasking. Istanbul has pointed something out too which means message is more likely to be the seer's based on Berlin's faux pas.
Note that I haven't voted yet!
Quite. What's the explanation for this @Berlin ?
The second message seems a bit of a panic message from the wolf trying to cause confusion.
I think this is a fair point. If Berlin is the seer, they may as well tell us something now (even if they don't have to give the complete game away). And why didn't they firm up day 1's view?
It feels like the most likely scenario based on everything that's happened so far is that the Seer has lucked out and viewed the Alpha, Berlin, who's then gone on a bit of a meltdown.
He's "outed" himself as the Seer incredibly early for no real reason, then accidentally referred to the other message as being the Seer's. Put yourself in this position for a moment, what is the likelihood of you referring to the what must by your own logic be the Wolf's message as the Seer's?
Need to come up with something very convincing here, Berlin, otherwise you look like the Alpha (or possibly the world's most inept Seer and we'd probably be better off with a backup coming in...)
Polar opposite to the last game where the messages were relentlessly good for the early part of the game.
Bold move from Berlin to be outing himself at such an early stage.
To clarify Berlin, the questions to be answered:
Why did you say the message that viewed you as evil was the seer's?
Why would a seer out themselves this early on Day 2 before a meaningful vote was cast and before most players had a chance to respond to the messages? (By meaningful vote I mean not one placed by you or I).
Questions for the benefit of others (I obviously know you aren't the seer so the answers mean nothing to me):
Can you elaborate at all on the Bible verse link?
Why not state in today's message that you viewed Nairobi yesterday?
Why view Istanbul?
If your intention all along was to out yourself as the seer once named as evil - why not do that in message 2 if you were supposedly writing it as a seer? Why wait and do that as a comment? Nothing changed between the second message and you outing yourself so if the second message really was the seer and you were writing the message, why not out yourself there and then?
+1 more question actually Berlin
In pretty much every single sentence you posted yesterday, you always left a space before your punctuation. Commas, full stops and question marks, they all had this strange space. Far too often for it to have been a typo.
Today, you haven't done it once. You posted once before being named and didn't do it in fairness, but in your lengthy post after being named you also didn't do it. Perhaps you forgot.
Was there a significance to doing it on Day 1? As I say, you did it far too often for it to have been a mistake.
I'm starting to wonder if you were doing it so your Berlin account had a distinguishable feature that wasn't included in the alpha's messages - in case it got to a stage where we looked for clues in the Alpha's writing style.
Of course, you could say it was intentional but you were trying to make sure evil didn't match the seer's style to your style, which I would not have argued with had you not been so keen to 'out yourself' as the seer within moments of being named. That doesn't strike me as someone playing a careful game as a seer.