Covid-19 Virus

Discussion in 'Taylor's Tittle-Tattle - General Banter' started by Hornet4ever, Jan 30, 2020.

  1. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    What measures do you mean and do you mean Country/people or Government?

    I think it’s dangerous to assume too much about this being a cycle that other nations are on. The problem for us is that we never get it that low each time before we move to liberalise, so it’s always going to come back. Others will maybe follow the same pattern, maybe not.
     
  2. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    .
    Is it dangerous or slightly inconvenient? There’s enough evidence by now of the principle that just because we’re at one part of a wave it doesn’t mean other countries are too.

    Overall though it’s nearly impossible to compare countries but both sides seem to love doing it. I’m sure I’ve done it. But taking a step back there are clear flaws in doing so as every country carries out different amounts of testing, counts Covid deaths differently etc. For example, the Germans and the Spanish are doing far far fewer Covid tests than us:

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...othed-7-day?tab=chart&country=FRA~GBR~ESP~DEU

    And that isn’t just now, when cases are high here and so you’d expect more tests to be carried out as more symptomatic people come forward. The trend was the same throughout our summer too. It’s fine heralding them for keeping cases low with masks and social distancing or whatever, but there’s at least some quantitative evidence they’re not anywhere near as committing to looking for Covid as we are.
     
  3. hornmeister

    hornmeister Club Legend

    When comparing the success of countries, you need to consider excess deaths moderated by population density and even then it needs to be understood how different countries register a Covid death. Not all are as "generous" in interpreting a death as a covid one as the UK.

    Really it;s too difficult to get an accurate analysis because data measurements just are not the same. But that's about as close as you'll get.

    Analyzing trends assuming all measurements metrics remain consistent will give an idea about cycles and increasing/ decreasing risk.
     
  4. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    I agree that comparing the actual numbers between different countries is pointless.

    But comparing the trends is something that is viable. If other countries are showing steady or falling numbers and our numbers are rising then it is valid to question why.

    As we've discussed previously, the answer is complex.
     
  5. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Absolutely. And as long as there’s recognition that the complexity includes the fact that other countries also have their own approach to counting everything then that’s fine. I think mostly everyone on here gets it but I rarely see that reflection on social media or in interviews with Indy SAGE.

    We could reduce cases overnight by the simple measure of charging for PCR tests. I’m not saying we should do that but it’s an example of how policy could easily be used to warp the trend we can see in the numbers.
     
    sydney_horn likes this.
  6. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Handle the information with long tongs at any one point for sure, but look back, we have done generally worse than most European neighbours, any reasonable interpretation of trends suggests worse right now and any projection suggests worse in the future.

    We can wish that away, sure, there is always an argument. But an argument for what ultimately? It’s just an act of God?
     
  7. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    I guess we'll see 'Plan B' after COP26
     
  8. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    **fixed**
     
  9. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    FFS!!! THE ORIGINAL BRIEF WAS TO PROVIDE CATCHY THREE WORD SLOGANS FOR THE SHEEPLE...
     
  10. Why ? Is he planning a comeback gig ?
     
    Cassetti's Beard likes this.
  11. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Vaxxies - No Backsies!
     
    Bwood_Horn likes this.
  12. Since63

    Since63 Reservist

    Yep, Plan A should always have included the requirement to wear masks indoors in public places.
    But, hey, it's our liberty! I would fight to the death to preserve my right to infect who I want wherever I want.
    Out with all these namby-pamby piccaninny-loving do-gooders!
     
    sydney_horn likes this.
  13. Since63

    Since63 Reservist


    Politics section, please!
     
  14. Since63

    Since63 Reservist

    Would cost WAY too much for anyone to seriously put it into a manifesto though, eh?
     
  15. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    It's entirely possible the UK's current poor performance compared to the rest of Europe is down to the way it approached the vaccines.

    Most other countries applied the vaccine as per the manufacturer's recommendation (i.e. first does, second does after X days). The UK approach to let the second dose slide could well have resulted in lowered efficacy.

    Of course, there are many other possibilities as to what's driving the UK's comparatively poor performance, but for me this highlights why it's generally wise not to take risks in these situations. It introduces other factors that make it more difficult to work out where the problems lie.
     
  16. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Bit dubious about this. There have been studies on this that have found no such thing. They’re quite easy to find. And Israel, whose citizens were basically a by-the-book control group for Pfizer, have seen similar rising case numbers having been given their two jabs earlier than most countries. They attributed that to the vaccine having a waning effect after about 6 months.
     
    WillisWasTheWorst likes this.
  17. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    I don't believe anyone has studied the effects of not sticking to the manufacturer's recommendations versus sticking to them, either via a controlled study or via real world data, but maybe it just got lost in the noise.

    Efficacy dropping over time has been observed and is reported in a number of significant scientific publications. That seems to be very much a reality. If a gap beyond recommended interval caused a negative delta of, say, even 3%, that could translate to a lot of additional infections.

    Of course, it's also possible the delay was beneficial.
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2021
  18. Lloyd

    Lloyd Squad Player

    Lady Lloyd and I spent most of this week in Edinburgh. They're rigidly masking up and sanitising up there. In shops, restaurants and even on the streets, I would say at least 8/10 are wearing some sort of face covering. The Scottish Covid stats would seem to show it hasn't done them much good though
     
  19. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Well, they do have to live next door to England. :(
     
  20. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    So the measures they imposed because of rising covid numbers are futile? Just asking for A Friend.
     
    Smudger likes this.
  21. Keighley

    Keighley Squad Player

    Really? 1 in 55 have Covid in England, 1 in 90 in Scotland.
     
    sydney_horn likes this.
  22. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    The manufacturers suggested a time frame based on their expedited trials before the temporary authorisations were granted and the vaccines were rolled out far more widely. I don’t know for sure but assume the normal course of multiple dose vaccine trials would involve human trials of different periods between doses to find the right one? Was there time to do that for the Covid vaccines?

    This recently released study (which was in the news in the summer but now peer reviewed) suggests immune response caused by the Pfizer vaccine isn’t negatively affected by the longer gap between doses. It compared people who had the 3 weeks interval - basically NHS frontline staff - with those who waited longer. It had a mix of participants who had caught Covid and hadn’t: https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)01221-6#
     
  23. Lloyd

    Lloyd Squad Player

    Interesting. I wonder why our Scots brothers are making such a fuss then?
     
  24. Lloyd

    Lloyd Squad Player

    You've got friends? I don't believe that for a second
     
  25. Smudger

    Smudger Messi's Mad Coach Staff Member

  26. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    Well I say he's a friend - he's more of a ******* moron who won't stop bothering me.
     
  27. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

  28. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    So actually of far more legal substance than what they purported them to be?
     
    Bwood_Horn likes this.
  29. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    You may wish to become acquainted with those old chestnuts cause and effect.
     
  30. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

  31. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

  32. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    Had my booster on Sunday - all seems well.

    Felt better than I did on the Saturday anyway!

    Maybe just got lucky with all these vaccines (plus flu jab)

    I heard the figures weren't great for deaths and numbers in hospital yesterday is there a break down of what age group are in hospital or how many are un-vaccinated/vaccinated?
     
  33. Lloyd

    Lloyd Squad Player

    Unknown-1.jpeg
     
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  34. HappyHornet24, wfc4ever and Lloyd like this.
  35. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Covid vaccine to be mandatory for NHS staff from April 1st.

    Notwithstanding the slightly odd implementation date, this is a big call by the Government. Going to be unpopular with some noisy people.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59215282
     

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