Covid-19 Virus

Discussion in 'Taylor's Tittle-Tattle - General Banter' started by Hornet4ever, Jan 30, 2020.

  1. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Is this the modern twist on the ‘if you know what’s good for you don’t be on the tube at 8.45 am next Monday’ thing?

    If serious, given the projections to date have been pretty ropey we can surely only wait and see.
     
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  2. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    This depends really on whether the vaccine will need to be tweaked. At the moment the current vaccine appears reasonably effective against Delta. If this is the case we should have loads available. How quickly will be driven only by the rate we can get it in people’s arms.

    If this changes or a further variant emerges, then we may have to start again which would slow the whole thing down.
     
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  3. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Taking a very linear view, cases are rising and all the indicators are that our projected behaviour, return to work/school, autumn weather staying in, will push it further upwards.

    However, it may not be so linear. If the vaccine is effective many could have it, barely notice and not test. Or it could have already peaked among unvaccinated and buck the apparent trend. We just don’t know what uncontrolled Covid looks like around a largely vaccinated population.

    My feeling is that full return to work etc is an error, but that’s a feeling rather than a prediction and we can’t be locked down atm either. I would prefer more mitigation to stay in place.
     
  4. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    We are living in a social experiment at the moment because, as you say, nobody knows what an uncontrolled Covid is going to look like over the coming winter now most people are vaccinated.

    I think it will be ok. Again, not a prediction but just a feeling.

    If there are no mutations that are resistant to the vaccine then it looks like the number of hospitalisations will be relatively low. And, thanks to better treatments, the number of deaths will be lower in those that do end up in hospital.

    My only concerns are that more frequent transmission means a much higher likelihood of mutations. And, although the NHS might be able to "cope" with a winter increase of Covid cases, at what cost will it be to those waiting for other treatments where queues are already horrendously long.

    Although we now have our "freedoms back", I do hope people continue to act cautiously to lower the risks of infection. I know I will be.
     
  5. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever Administrator Staff Member

    Do we know what group of people are dying now ?

    Are they very vulnerable maybe elderly folk who even with the vaccine were at very serious risk of passing away?

    Or maybe those who have refused the vaccine and in the vulnerable group ?
     
  6. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Yes, but you're missing the point! There are risks to the vaccine!

    I mean, lets ignore that all of the noted possible side effects of the vaccine are also risks for Covid sufferers, and occur at a frequency an order of magnitude of higher than observed for the vaccines. Also no need to mention the laundry list of other problems and risks of catching Covid that the vaccine doesn't have. That stuff is not really relevant.

    What's become profoundly clear is that a significant percentage of the world's population are awful at mathematics and risk management.

    I haven't worked out exactly what percentage because I'm bad at maths.
     
    Moose likes this.
  7. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    This analysis provides a breakdown of the current situation by age, area etc:

    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1431312387315994626?s=19
     
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  8. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Surprise, surprise, Reading Festival was even more of a “super spreader” event than Boardmasters. My 17 year old didn’t go (decided to take the refund from last year) but everyone she knows who did, has come back with Covid. One of her friends went in a group of 30 - the friend herself had recently recovered from Covid and was literally the only one not to come back from the festival with it.
    Things that are becoming clear:
    1. Lateral flow tests are not picking up this Delta variant in its early stages. I know of several kids who tested negative on their return from Reading but whose parents took them to get a pcr test on the same day, either because the teens weren’t feeling well or just to be sure, which came back positive.
    2. This age group are not escaping this variant symptom free - all the teens I know who now have it or who had it after Boardmasters have been or are ill with it. Some have ended up in hospital. All, though, that I know of have ultimately recovered fully - I don’t know of any teens with “long Covid”.
    3. The official figures are way too low, because those who test positive via lateral flow tests aren’t necessarily included in the numbers; they are only in the stats if that person thinks to report the result.
    4. My 17 year old daughter hasn’t got the sense she was born with - still insisting on going to Wireless Festival, despite seeing first hand that all her friends who went to Reading are now ill. Apparently it’s less risky because it’s not a camping festival.Bloody idiot. :mad:
     
  9. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    Were they all unvaccinated or did some older members of the group also get infected?

    People may have two different reactions to this, that it is irresponsible or that it is fine, no harm done at least as far as we know.
     
  10. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    I was out for a stroll yesterday, while walking along Sheepcot Lane a middle aged bloke was coming towards me coughing and spluttering without even bothering to cover his mouth. I walked into the road where it was safer!

    Even before the pandemic, an adult should know to cover their mouth when coughing or sneezing. You wonder whether some people have been living in a cave these last couple of years.
     
  11. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    My 19yo daughter went to reading, came back like a zombie with a cough and feeling like sh*t. She came back exactly the same before covid was a thing, (5 nights of partying and no sleep), so I'm not certain that getting festival flu is always going to mean a positive case. She's had 3 tests since returning which are all negative, (I agree that the lateral flow tests aren't that reliable), but after 3 nights sleep she's basically back to normal, (which itself is an annoyance).

    Did all your daughters friends test positive or are they all just feeling like death?
     
  12. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    A mix. My goddaughter is 19 and double vaccinated as she has a holiday job at a care home - came back from Boardmasters with Covid; thought she just had a bad cold when she got back and lateral flow tested negative. Had to do a pcr test before returning to work, but results were delayed and she was told to go in and do her shift, which she did. She then started to feel more unwell so did another pcr test after work at a drive through. The next day both pcr tests came back positive. Fortunately, she hadn’t had any “face to face” interaction with the care home residents during that particular shift. My friend’s daughter who was very ill with it after Boardmasters and had real problems with her breathing, was unvaccinated as were all her friends who got it. Most of the younger teens I know that have it from Reading are either unvaccinated or have had their jab, but only got it about 2 weeks before Reading. Some have tested positive with lateral flow tests, others have tested negative with lateral flow tests but positive pcr. All have symptoms.
    The upside of this, I guess, is that lots of teenagers are going back to school/college with 3 months of natural immunity as we head into the autumn term - maybe this was seen as a likely scenario, giving some kind of herd immunity while they all get jabbed?
     
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  13. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    All have tested positive.
     
  14. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    That's pretty d*mn scary then. My daughter has had both jabs, (2nd one done only a few days before the festival), so I can only assume it worked as advertised.
     
  15. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever Administrator Staff Member

    Most cases and hospitals admissions might be those under 30 or not vaccinated?
     
  16. HenryHooter

    HenryHooter Reservist

    Reads different this way round.
    Seems to me that she has assessed a risk, albeit in mind of the fact she really wants to go, and believes the risk is low; from your own words I find it difficult to argue with her without saying “yeah, but what about…”. Catching COVID is not the primary risk, because it can very much be likened to a bad cold or, mostly, a mild flu in youngsters (which doesn’t stop anyone from doing anything in general). A bad reaction to COVID is the risk. That risk, like flu, is with us for ever now. The sooner we get used to it and start living life with the inherent risks, rather than hiding from them, the better.

    Do you have any details on the hospitalisations?
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2021
  17. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Re hospitalisations, not beyond the fact that they are 17 year old boys and are all out now. I am seeing the friend who mentioned it to me (they are friends of her son’s) for drinks on Friday so will ask her! My friend came very close to taking her daughter in to hospital one night as she was finding it hard to breathe but they had an oximeter so monitored her with that.

    The issue I have with my daughter going to a festival and likely picking up Covid isn’t so much that I’m worried that she’ll get seriously ill but rather that she will have to isolate for 10 days and she will just have started a new course at College.
     
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  18. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    The dreary and macho ‘we can’t hide from Covid’ rears its head again.

    ‘Hiding’ is not the issue, it’s about finding the right path to steer in terms of reasonable responses to a disease that is still killing and has the capacity to disrupt.

    The ‘hiding’ narrative, when no one is advocating ‘hiding’ is another form of denial.
     
  19. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Maybe naive of me, but can you not stop her from going? Your house, your rules. Not only do you not want her to catch it but you don't want anyone in your household getting it. I know going forward plus with vaccines we will have to learn to live with it so we can't stop ourselves from doing things but I fear with schools returning that we will have a bumpy Autumn.
     
  20. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Of course you are spot on - I could put my foot down and refuse to let her go. But, to be honest, quite apart from the meltdown that would ensue, I don’t feel inclined to. Without boring you with the details, like many her age, she hasn’t had an easy 18 months. She has worked for a lot of this summer and she has been looking forward to this for a long time. So, while I would be delighted if she herself decided not to go, I don’t feel minded to force the decision on her. The member of our household who will be at most risk is me, as I am one of the parents doing lifts. So I will take steps to keep myself and her away from Mr HH and our younger daughter until we have both got the all clear from PCR tests once she is back.
     
  21. Since63

    Since63 Squad Player

    Aah, the elusive 4th Man?
     
    The undeniable truth and Moose like this.
  22. Since63

    Since63 Squad Player

    He's still a mate of yours?
     
  23. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Do you mean you'd take one even without symptoms? Or if you developed symptoms?
     
  24. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    I would probably take one anyway after seeing the experience of my friends’ kids who went to Reading.
     
  25. HenryHooter

    HenryHooter Reservist

    We are hiding from the reality that we cannot completely control the virus, and therefore must grasp that fact and proceed with life and find out where it fits into the scheme of things.

    Denial is believing we can attain full control of our environment. We can't. We must learn to live with it, not bend before it regardless of (and in order to mitigate) its capacity to disrupt (which we have lived through for the last year and a half).

    The policy of facilitating its potential to disrupt to the maximum is, in my opinion, a very poor and unpractical choice.
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2021
  26. HenryHooter

    HenryHooter Reservist

    Fair concern. I would have said it is a far better reason to be angry with her, and for her to exercise caution, than the reasons you put in your original post.
     
  27. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

     
  28. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    "H" ?
     
  29. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Defiantley Maybey
     
  30. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Hmmm - I know they say it's only if you're symptomatic but not sure if that's because without symptoms it's less likely to produce a positive result or because they've been trying to manage demand. I guess probably the latter.
     
  31. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    This is on the BBC this morning:

    10.12
    Nearly 1,800 deaths linked to Delta variant in England - PHE


    A total of 1,798 deaths occurred in England up to 29 August of people who were either confirmed or likely to have had the Delta variant of Covid-19 and who died within 28 days of a positive test, according to new figures from Public Health England.

    Of this number, 154 have been under the age of 50 and 1,644 aged 50 or over.

    Of the 154 deaths of people under 50, 64% were unvaccinated, 9% had received one dose of vaccine and 24% had received both doses.

    Of the 1,644 deaths of people aged 50 or over, 27% were unvaccinated, 8% had received one dose of vaccine and 1,054 64% had received both doses.

    A small number of virus samples could not be matched with vaccination records.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-58431842
     
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  32. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Obviously it's impossible to tell from this data, but had those who'd not had vaccines or were only partially vaccinated had done so it's possible that up to 600 of those deaths could have been prevented.
     
  33. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    And now they've added:

    Nearly 75% of under-50s hospitalised with Delta unvaccinated

    Earlier we brought you the latest data from Public Health England on the Delta variant and deaths, now we have some more figures on hospitalisations.

    Some 9,472 people had been admitted to hospital in England up to 29 August who were either confirmed or likely to have had the Delta variant of Covid, PHE says.

    Of those 5,098 were under 50. Of the under-50s 73% were unvaccinated, 14% had received one dose and 10% were fully jabbed.

    Of the 4,374 people hospitalised aged 50 and over 30% were unvaccinated, 9% had received one dose and 61% had received two doses.
     
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  34. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    All 4 of our household are now positive. Youngest daughter was feeling ill over the weekend, so me and Mrs. Moog took lateral flow tests which were negative.

    Once we started to feel sick ourselves, I took a PCR test up tolpits lane and got positive result this morning.

    Annoyingly, the negative lateral flow tests mean we might have spread it.

    Both Mrs. Moog and I are both double AZ vaccinated.

    Symptoms like a nasty 3-4 day flu bug.
     
  35. Since63

    Since63 Squad Player

    Always struggled with counting, me...
     
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