Chris Wilder - Watford Head Coach #18

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by SkylaRose, Mar 7, 2023.

  1. wingco

    wingco Reservist

    Gino must be absolutely gagging to sack him.
  2. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    “…a free run at it” on the basis he won’t have any money to spend on this total rebuild :).
  3. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    10 years ago we benefited from Udinese having a first class scouting network. These days there is so much data available to be crunched that every man and his dog can have info at hand to identify the top prospects. Some even do it on this forum. It is now almost impossible to find a gem that no one else has seen. As soon as we are one of a handful of clubs chasing a prospect the chances of us signing are relatively low if the prospect is any good. Money talks. Competition pushes up prices and the gambles get more expensive and we are pushed to the more niche markets in Sth America where competition is perhaps behind us, but the players are less well suited to the championship. I doubt Managa and his network will be able to unearth talent that other clubs, with more money to burn, aren’t also aware of.
    It will genuinely be a fascinating summer but I don’t hold out too much hope that we will end the summer with a bargain basement squad that is capable of challenging for promotion.
  4. Oscar calling

    Oscar calling Squad Player

    So am I!
    K9 Hornet likes this.
  5. Smudger

    Smudger Messi's Mad Coach Staff Member

    There is a plethora of data out there. But despite it all most clubs are still behind the curve. That's why the likes of Brighton and Brentford have through meticulous work and preparation snuck in before the ESL mob and their European equivalents have had a chance to register their interest.

    Clubs are now in the age of AI as well but most are still reliant on scouts (which you do need to do background checks and have the once over) and ex players as well from a country. There is a plethora of talent too. Not the elite, elite talent like an Echeverri or Paez seen at the u17s in South America for instance but plenty of decent level talent that will flourish in a club environment. That will be a solid professional you can rely on to build a squad. And players that do still slip through the gaps as their development is not linear.

    Our model all this time has been hopeless and has showed no signs of being adapted until the arrival of Ubenga. At least that's what we hope will be the case. The model is to rely on a scout in Ecuador or Colombia and Pozzo's chum Mogi. We've failed miserably to identify domestic talent in the lower leagues too compared to other clubs. We're performing so badly in this area that is critical to any club. To say we cannot improve, that we cannot find the odd player others have missed is the sort of excuse Gino would love to proffer. We have done our best he'd say with the resources we have.

    I beg to differ and really we ought to be using AI right now. There are two clubs in the PL namely Brighton and Brentford that have shown it can be done. That they can outsmart the mob, offer young players a place to develop and then move on. Brentford have a focus in Denmark and Germany to a degree and Brighton have been over in South America where they have snatched Enciso and Buonnanotte. These two were not exactly unknown to the vultures but Brighton still spirited them away. They did their homework on Mac Allister too more so than me because I never expected him to become the sort of player he has.

    Brighton right now are stealing away one of Celtic's best prospects. Where there's a will there is a way. To say otherwise is pandering to the Pozzo mentality. Which is one of uselessness and apathy.
  6. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    I stand by the comment though to be fair.
    DaveWFC, Heidar and GoingDown like this.
  7. Heidar

    Heidar Squad Player


    "Give him another month to think about it"
  8. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    This is the problem though. We shouldn’t be relying on prospects. We need to divert some of that money and energy into buying a few highly competitive Championship or League One players towards the end of their contracts. Doesn’t matter if they have little resale value, we need the players who are most competitive now.

    Our squad of skilful prospects got bullied this season and taught a lesson in passing.
    Happy bunny likes this.
  9. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Agreed. We need some champ ready players but again we have little/no money to spend given the state of our finances and declining income. We showed last season what can happen when we bring in a bunch of experienced players for little/no money, Kucka, Sissoko, Tufan, King, Rose, etc
  10. EnjoytheGame

    EnjoytheGame Reservist

    Little/no money? Sissoko, Tufan, King, Rose? Okay, maybe not transfer fees but the financial equivalent of leaving the taps running in the bathroom and going on a month-long holiday.
    Happy bunny, UEA_Hornet and GoingDown like this.
  11. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Should have said "little/no fee". Of course they were expensive to "employ" on a monthly basis as any established player at that level would be. My point was more about the poor quality you can end up with if you aren't careful when you can't afford up front transfer fees but are looking for "experience" at your level.
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2023
  12. EnjoytheGame

    EnjoytheGame Reservist

    Yeah, true. Having said that, there was some merit to Sissoko who, I suspect, would have looked much better in a better team.

    The thing about the transfer fees / wages trade-off is that what you save in transfer fees is often countered by higher wages or signing on fees because everyone involved in the deal knows that a small fortune is being saved. The summer of 2021 business looked like a huge gamble on players who were established but all had obvious flaws. I thought at the time it looked like a slightly desperate attempt to recreate the summer of 2015 (Capoue, Behrami, Holebas, Prodl, Britos, Jurado etc). The casino equivalent of putting all the remaining chips on red and hoping for the best.
  13. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    All the signings had something about them that suggested "it could be a great deal if it comes off" but sadly none really did. Sissoko as you say looked a great signing on paper. I got the feeling that the Board didn't want to "do a Norwich" and leave the championship squad largely untouched but at the same time knew they couldn't splash the cash on expensive signings on long term deals that would be a burden if relegated. The compromise was short term loans and "free transfers" which ended left us with a bunch of misfits without a commitment to the club/project. The difference in quality and commitment between the class of 2015 and class of 2021 was huge. The 2015 signings were perfect for what was ahead, upgrading the whole defensive side of the squad. Ake too.
    Happy bunny and PowerJugs like this.
  14. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    I didn't have that much of an issue with the signings in the summer last time we were promoted. Was obvious we were trying to stay up on the cheap and was prepared to accept that if it meant they were finally being more prudent.

    However, the January window was a total abomination, we still had a decent chance to get out of the relegation zone but spunked most of our money on the likes of Okoye, Kayembe and Kalu.

    It's beggars belief that anyone could think 'what's the best use of our scarce funds? High performing Championship defender that might help us stay up or alternatively would be useful for a promotion push next season? No, no, I've got it. Let's splash £6m on a keeper and then loan him back to his club'.
  15. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    That’s the epitome of what I said in the ‘where did it all go wrong thread’. PL prize money is worth £100m+, but Gino just can’t help but think about the player trading side of things ahead of it which is just utter insanity. It’s never going to make him remotely near as much as staying in the PL would, but he still thinks it’s prudent to waste £6m on a player who would have zero impact in the here and now.
    wfcmoog, PowerJugs and Happy bunny like this.
  16. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    The trouble is that the cost of getting to and staying in the prem exceeds the extra income earned from staying there. How many PL clubs make an annual profit and are cashflow positive ? I genuinely don't know but might have time between work stuff for a quick google later....

    EDIT -
    "Premier League forecast: Only five clubs set to post a profit in 2021/22"
    "EPL clubs are estimated to spend 93 per cent of income on wages and ammortisations"
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2023
  17. We hate 48

    We hate 48 Reservist

    Good luck with that-of course player purchases don't go through P+L but amortisation does but as it is not a cash expense it doesn't help analysis IMHO alongside cash for players is generally on the drip so outstanding sums on these is "just another creditor"-£54m for our club as at June 22.
  18. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Sorry not sure if you're disagreeing with anything I've said or agreeing :).
    Player purchases do go through the P&L of course, as you note via amortisation over the period of their contracts unless sold when the balance is expensed vs the sale proceeds. Obviously there's a timing difference between P&L (evenly over contract) and cashflow (based on payment terms).
    My point was that the extra income for just being in the prem is dwarfed by the costs required to get and stay there, 93% of income goes on player costs, and only 5 clubs made a profit. This idea that once a club gets to the prem it can wallow in the riches of the prem is flawed. The only real reason to want to get your club into the prem is for ego, sense of achievement, and increasing the potential resale value.
  19. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    And my point was simply that £6m on a player who couldn’t contribute in January was madness considering the PL prize money at stake. Of course there is absolutely no guarantee investing £6m in an oven ready player would’ve kept us up, but you have to assume Gino thought we had a chance as otherwise how do you explain Munoz/Ranieri/Hodgson and their associated payouts.
    wfcmoog likes this.
  20. We hate 48

    We hate 48 Reservist

    I totally agree with you-I was only highlighting how difficult it is to get a picture of the finances because businesses get into difficulty because of cashflow.

    When that is impacted by player purchases not going through the P+L (only the amort charge-over many years) then with the cash outlay mostly deferred then the cash impact is delayed and the PBT is somewhat irrelevant if you have to spend your cash meeting deferred payments
  21. Relegation Certs

    Relegation Certs Squad Player

    Another british manager, another catastrophic pile of shyte.

    WHY don't they just stick to their own countrymen*? Same goes for the players! Why have we got so much british dung in our squad?

    *Anglicised geriatrics like ranieri do not count.
  22. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Yes the timing of installment payments for purchases and sales will mean that there will always be timing differences between cashflow and P&L (though amortisation over a 3 or 4 year contract term may not be too different from the timing of the payments), but the full net cost of the player transfer will ultimately flow through both P&L and cashflow. Longterm losses will indicate longterm negative cashflow and as you say it's cashflow rather than losses that will cause administration.
    What I particularly don't like is the habit of securing current debt against future tv monies. That blocks 2023/24 income from being available to cover 2023/24 costs and when tv monies drop suddenly, as they are about to, it means the debt can't simply be replaced by securing the same debt against 2024/25 income...
  23. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    And the future by the look of it!
  24. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    Well I for one am shocked....

    Leventhal says Wilder is 'expected' to leave after the Stoke game.
    wfcmoog likes this.
  25. LeedsOrn

    LeedsOrn Reservist

    Is this news? Or is he just reporting our sentiments/expectations. It’s only news if it’s confirmed, and he hasn’t even confirmed it. Silly article.
    wfc4ever likes this.
  26. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Guess we couldn’t afford him. Or he didn’t like the rolling one month contract offer ?
  27. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    We just couldn't compete with the pull of Hearts
  28. Smudger

    Smudger Messi's Mad Coach Staff Member

    Hope we get Billy in soon. Should be perfect material for a black comedy.
  29. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever Administrator Staff Member

    And if true hardly a shock.
  30. davisp2

    davisp2 Reservist

    It’s disrespectful to talk about Wilders future apparently
    wfcmoog and Heidar like this.
  31. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    We signed 5 'experienced heads' in Rose, Kucka, King, Sissoko and Nkoulou (remember him!), which is fine if they are to supplement younger players, but 4 of them were regulars initially (and Nkoulou may well have been too had he not got injured so soon after arriving). Other than those lot, we only signed young players far from ready for the first team, Mogi clients, with varying levels of success, Dennis being a hit, (although he didn't actually make us that much money!) and the others being mediocre at best, Samir from Udinese and the inexplicable signings of Okoye and Fletcher, it really wasn't a recipe for success
  32. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Don't remind me. I'd just managed to forget about him.
  33. Heidar

    Heidar Squad Player

    Man out of contract and free to leave expected to leave after abysmal record as manager shocker
    Steve Leo Beleck and wfc4ever like this.
  34. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever Administrator Staff Member

    Be twisted that he is being sacked ..
  35. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    I don’t think anyone Okoye looked a bad signing other than the size of the fee burning much of our transfer kitty. Huge young promising international keeper who was genuinely starring in the top Dutch league. Would have been fine as a future punt for £3m… But £7m?? As with all young keepers we sign, his career has nosedived.
    Fletch was just odd. A free transfer but 5 year deal with no evidence he would be a first team player for us.
    Kalu is the one that just makes no sense, even before considering his real age.
    PowerJugs likes this.

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