Chris Wilder - Watford Head Coach #18

Gino must be absolutely gagging to sack him.

 

“…a free run at it” on the basis he won’t have any money to spend on this total rebuild .

 

10 years ago we benefited from Udinese having a first class scouting network. These days there is so much data available to be crunched that every man and his dog can have info at hand to identify the top prospects. Some even do it on this forum. It is now almost impossible to find a gem that no one else has seen. As soon as we are one of a handful of clubs chasing a prospect the chances of us signing are relatively low if the prospect is any good. Money talks. Competition pushes up prices and the gambles get more expensive and we are pushed to the more niche markets in Sth America where competition is perhaps behind us, but the players are less well suited to the championship. I doubt Managa and his network will be able to unearth talent that other clubs, with more money to burn, aren’t also aware of.
It will genuinely be a fascinating summer but I don’t hold out too much hope that we will end the summer with a bargain basement squad that is capable of challenging for promotion.

 

So am I!

 

I stand by the comment though to be fair.

 

Haha

"Give him another month to think about it"

 

This is the problem though. We shouldn’t be relying on prospects. We need to divert some of that money and energy into buying a few highly competitive Championship or League One players towards the end of their contracts. Doesn’t matter if they have little resale value, we need the players who are most competitive now.

Our squad of skilful prospects got bullied this season and taught a lesson in passing.

 

Agreed. We need some champ ready players but again we have little/no money to spend given the state of our finances and declining income. We showed last season what can happen when we bring in a bunch of experienced players for little/no money, Kucka, Sissoko, Tufan, King, Rose, etc

 

Little/no money? Sissoko, Tufan, King, Rose? Okay, maybe not transfer fees but the financial equivalent of leaving the taps running in the bathroom and going on a month-long holiday.

 

Should have said "little/no fee". Of course they were expensive to "employ" on a monthly basis as any established player at that level would be. My point was more about the poor quality you can end up with if you aren't careful when you can't afford up front transfer fees but are looking for "experience" at your level.

 

Yeah, true. Having said that, there was some merit to Sissoko who, I suspect, would have looked much better in a better team.

The thing about the transfer fees / wages trade-off is that what you save in transfer fees is often countered by higher wages or signing on fees because everyone involved in the deal knows that a small fortune is being saved. The summer of 2021 business looked like a huge gamble on players who were established but all had obvious flaws. I thought at the time it looked like a slightly desperate attempt to recreate the summer of 2015 (Capoue, Behrami, Holebas, Prodl, Britos, Jurado etc). The casino equivalent of putting all the remaining chips on red and hoping for the best.

 

All the signings had something about them that suggested "it could be a great deal if it comes off" but sadly none really did. Sissoko as you say looked a great signing on paper. I got the feeling that the Board didn't want to "do a Norwich" and leave the championship squad largely untouched but at the same time knew they couldn't splash the cash on expensive signings on long term deals that would be a burden if relegated. The compromise was short term loans and "free transfers" which ended left us with a bunch of misfits without a commitment to the club/project. The difference in quality and commitment between the class of 2015 and class of 2021 was huge. The 2015 signings were perfect for what was ahead, upgrading the whole defensive side of the squad. Ake too.

 

I didn't have that much of an issue with the signings in the summer last time we were promoted. Was obvious we were trying to stay up on the cheap and was prepared to accept that if it meant they were finally being more prudent.

However, the January window was a total abomination, we still had a decent chance to get out of the relegation zone but spunked most of our money on the likes of Okoye, Kayembe and Kalu.

It's beggars belief that anyone could think 'what's the best use of our scarce funds? High performing Championship defender that might help us stay up or alternatively would be useful for a promotion push next season? No, no, I've got it. Let's splash £6m on a keeper and then loan him back to his club'.

 

That’s the epitome of what I said in the ‘where did it all go wrong thread’. PL prize money is worth £100m+, but Gino just can’t help but think about the player trading side of things ahead of it which is just utter insanity. It’s never going to make him remotely near as much as staying in the PL would, but he still thinks it’s prudent to waste £6m on a player who would have zero impact in the here and now.

 

The trouble is that the cost of getting to and staying in the prem exceeds the extra income earned from staying there. How many PL clubs make an annual profit and are cashflow positive ? I genuinely don't know but might have time between work stuff for a quick google later....

EDIT - https://offthepitch.com/a/premier-l...t-accumulate-losses-ps590-million-despite-all
"Premier League forecast: Only five clubs set to post a profit in 2021/22"
"EPL clubs are estimated to spend 93 per cent of income on wages and ammortisations"

 

Good luck with that-of course player purchases don't go through P+L but amortisation does but as it is not a cash expense it doesn't help analysis IMHO alongside cash for players is generally on the drip so outstanding sums on these is "just another creditor"-£54m for our club as at June 22.

 

Sorry not sure if you're disagreeing with anything I've said or agreeing .
Player purchases do go through the P&L of course, as you note via amortisation over the period of their contracts unless sold when the balance is expensed vs the sale proceeds. Obviously there's a timing difference between P&L (evenly over contract) and cashflow (based on payment terms).
My point was that the extra income for just being in the prem is dwarfed by the costs required to get and stay there, 93% of income goes on player costs, and only 5 clubs made a profit. This idea that once a club gets to the prem it can wallow in the riches of the prem is flawed. The only real reason to want to get your club into the prem is for ego, sense of achievement, and increasing the potential resale value.

 

And my point was simply that £6m on a player who couldn’t contribute in January was madness considering the PL prize money at stake. Of course there is absolutely no guarantee investing £6m in an oven ready player would’ve kept us up, but you have to assume Gino thought we had a chance as otherwise how do you explain Munoz/Ranieri/Hodgson and their associated payouts.

 

I totally agree with you-I was only highlighting how difficult it is to get a picture of the finances because businesses get into difficulty because of cashflow.

When that is impacted by player purchases not going through the P+L (only the amort charge-over many years) then with the cash outlay mostly deferred then the cash impact is delayed and the PBT is somewhat irrelevant if you have to spend your cash meeting deferred payments

 

Another british manager, another catastrophic pile of shyte.

WHY don't they just stick to their own countrymen*? Same goes for the players! Why have we got so much british dung in our squad?

*Anglicised geriatrics like ranieri do not count.

 

Yes the timing of installment payments for purchases and sales will mean that there will always be timing differences between cashflow and P&L (though amortisation over a 3 or 4 year contract term may not be too different from the timing of the payments), but the full net cost of the player transfer will ultimately flow through both P&L and cashflow. Longterm losses will indicate longterm negative cashflow and as you say it's cashflow rather than losses that will cause administration.
What I particularly don't like is the habit of securing current debt against future tv monies. That blocks 2023/24 income from being available to cover 2023/24 costs and when tv monies drop suddenly, as they are about to, it means the debt can't simply be replaced by securing the same debt against 2024/25 income...

 

And the future by the look of it!

 

Well I for one am shocked....

Leventhal says Wilder is 'expected' to leave after the Stoke game.

 

Is this news? Or is he just reporting our sentiments/expectations. It’s only news if it’s confirmed, and he hasn’t even confirmed it. Silly article.

 

Guess we couldn’t afford him. Or he didn’t like the rolling one month contract offer ?

 

We just couldn't compete with the pull of Hearts

 

It’s disrespectful to talk about Wilders future apparently

 

We signed 5 'experienced heads' in Rose, Kucka, King, Sissoko and Nkoulou (remember him!), which is fine if they are to supplement younger players, but 4 of them were regulars initially (and Nkoulou may well have been too had he not got injured so soon after arriving). Other than those lot, we only signed young players far from ready for the first team, Mogi clients, with varying levels of success, Dennis being a hit, (although he didn't actually make us that much money!) and the others being mediocre at best, Samir from Udinese and the inexplicable signings of Okoye and Fletcher, it really wasn't a recipe for success

 

Don't remind me. I'd just managed to forget about him.

 

Man out of contract and free to leave expected to leave after abysmal record as manager shocker

 

I don’t think anyone Okoye looked a bad signing other than the size of the fee burning much of our transfer kitty. Huge young promising international keeper who was genuinely starring in the top Dutch league. Would have been fine as a future punt for £3m… But £7m?? As with all young keepers we sign, his career has nosedived.
Fletch was just odd. A free transfer but 5 year deal with no evidence he would be a first team player for us.
Kalu is the one that just makes no sense, even before considering his real age.