2021/22 - Fast Start Stats For Promoted Teams

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by Manatleisure, Aug 11, 2021.

  1. Manatleisure

    Manatleisure Reservist

    Can a fast start avoid a slow death?

    Promoted teams have struggled to survive in the Premier League, with 47% relegated in their first season.

    So it is little surprise that they have such a poor record on the opening day. In fact, they have won just three such fixtures out of 30 in the past decade, losing 20.

    But getting early-season points is just as vital lower down the table as it is at the top and rebounding from an early setback quickly marks out those that survive.

    Over the past 20 seasons there has been a reasonably clear threshold that promoted teams have to reach to be confident of survival - 11 points from the first 10 matches. Below we see the number of points earned by promoted teams during their first 10 matches in the Premier League, the number of teams surviving and being relegated with those points, and the survival rate:

    Promoted teams - and how they have fared over last 20 seasons
    Points after 10 games
    Survived Relegated % survival rate
    0-7 2 15 12%
    8-10 8 7 53%
    11-12 10 2 83%
    12+ 15 1 94%
    Overall, 11 or more points to start your campaign gives an 89% chance of staying up, but get less than 11 and the survival rate drops to 31%.

    But are the opening games more important than the final ones? Does the closing of the transfer window allow teams to regroup?

    Crystal Palace and Leicester City have previously made memorable runs to avoid the drop, winning 18 and 22 points respectively from their final 10 games, but these superhuman efforts are rare.

    When comparing the opening and closing 10 games of the season for promoted teams, being better in the first 10 gives a 71% chance of survival, while being better in the final 10 (Palace and Leicester aside) gives a 58% chance.

    And what of the magical 11 points from 10 games? Twenty five clubs have managed this in their first 10 games and survived, while only 15 have managed this in their final 10 and stayed up.

    A poor start can lead to a long, disappointing season. So whether you hope to challenge at the top or scrape survival at the bottom, it is wise to carefully analyse those opening fixtures and make the most of them.
  2. StuBoy

    StuBoy Forum Cad and Bounder

  3. Manatleisure

    Manatleisure Reservist

    From this article, getting 8 to 10 points from the first 10 games still has a 53% chance of staying up so if Watford reach that rather than 11 its not the end of the world.
  4. Manatleisure

    Manatleisure Reservist

  5. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    Doesn’t work for tortoises
  6. Manatleisure

    Manatleisure Reservist

    After game 1.

    3 points.
  7. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Its making less grammar mistake's thats important

    About 35 more needed.
  8. Manatleisure

    Manatleisure Reservist

    This is the fast start 10 game thread. :D
  9. Manatleisure

    Manatleisure Reservist

    After game 2.

    3 points.
  10. Manatleisure

    Manatleisure Reservist

    After game 3.

    3 points.
  11. FromDiv4

    FromDiv4 Reservist

    The next 3 are very important. We have to be looking for minimum of 5 points from them.
    The 3 after that we could get 0, leaving us needing a win against Southampton to make 10.

    Yesterdays performance was very encouraging though, play like that for the rest of the season and we should be ok.
    Markoa$ and Hogg-DEENEY!!! like this.
  12. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    Wouldn't be a disgrace if we lose to Wolves given how they've played so far this season, but Norwich away and Newcastle at home are big big games. Don't think we can write off the next three games after that, Leeds and Everton even at home aren't invincible and I don't think anyone will be relishing a trip to ours
  13. Happy bunny

    Happy bunny Cheered up a bit

    Norwich have played Man City, Liverpool and Leicester so far, and are only three points behind us. They will be looking at our visit as a chance to put points on the board. A must-win game for them even more than for us.
  14. Manatleisure

    Manatleisure Reservist

    After game 4.

    3 points.
  15. Manatleisure

    Manatleisure Reservist

    After game 5.

    6 points.
  16. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    Thanks for the updates, I’d be struggling to keep count without them.
  17. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Got to fill his time somehow now there's no need to defend Andre Gray...
    LondonOrn and a19tgg like this.
  18. Manatleisure

    Manatleisure Reservist

    After game 6.

    7 points.

    Will the magic number 11 be reached?
  19. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Administrator Staff Member

    You love this thread don't you? :p
  20. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    Reckon we'll get around 32
  21. Manatleisure

    Manatleisure Reservist

    After game 7.

    7 points.

    3 to go. Southampton at home looking like a must win game.

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