Squad 2023 - 2024

A few years ago, I would have taken a similar view as you, believing that the owner is here to do his best for the club. But the drip-feed of bizarre and downright incompetent decisions makes me believe he doesn't really know what's he's doing and is now preparing to bail. Why stockpile so many players at Udinese? Why no investment whatsoever in the playing squad so far? As I say, I will caveat this with it could all change and we actually bring in a couple of statement signings. But I just do not see this happening. I think this season is Gino's last throw of the dice. Let Manga have a go of creating something on a slimline budget and if it works well and we somehow get promoted then fantastic, but if not we'll be in good shape to sell, with only an owner debt to settle as part of the sale terms.

If Gino was ambitious for the club, we'd be seeing a lot more investment. The debt can still be serviced but there would be more of a balance between debt and new signings. Right now the spit looks like 99% debt and 1% new players.

 

Yes, but no one actually thinks it is or is asking for that to happen, are they - we're asking for glaring holes in the squad, that are generally considered to be required to have a complete XI to field with any chance of being competitive at all, to be filled by any kind of appropriate and competent recruit, rather than bodging totally inappropriate players literally playing out of position into them, and claiming you've done all you can.

The potential Groundhog Day nature of this behaviour is wildly, maddeningly infuriating.

 

Still some time to go, and many of our targets will presumably only decide on their destination when their options become clearer nearer the end of the window ?

 

Yes, of course, that's true, and that's why I said 'potential' nature, but without freaking out we can only rely on indications that we are given by any source that has some knowledge, and what we literally see happening, and so far (today in particular) those things aren't trending amazingly well.

That's in addition, of course, to the long and storied pattern we have of identifying targets too late, if at all, and being undercooked or understaffed during pre-season and the beginning of the actual season as a result, alongside the knock-on effects that invariably has for the season as a whole.

Not to mention the equally storied history of not getting players we desperately need and slowly running down the clock as fans cry out over and over, with hope springing eternal from various quarters that 'they're just trying to get a good deal' or 'the targets take time to make their decision, we'll bring someone in in the end' right up until the window slams shut and in through the door walks absolutely no one.

Obviously, as ever, I hope this isn't the case, but we've been burned many times before - as it stands, it isn't a bug, it's a feature.

 

I’m not sure I follow your logic here. You talk about Gino’s incompetent decisions and yet this is the first time the club appear to actually be moderating their behaviour . I was sceptical and still am about Duxbury’s debt free statement , but at least the evidence appears to be pointing to them actually reducing the debt by dealing with the bloated squad , releasing certain players and not gambling large amounts on signings.
But you see this as more of a sign Gino doesn’t know what he’s doing and would rather we continue to potentially risk the future of the club building up more debt ?

The stockpiling of players in Udinese is presumably because they are serie A and have a bigger budget than we do now . Ambition is one thing, but if there isn’t money to fund the ambition then it can’t be done .

I don’t really get why this would be Gino’s last throw of the dice . The evidence doesn’t point that way . More that they are attempting to build a something a bit more sustainable .

 

As I say, I could well change my mind after the window has closed and see we have actually made some decent signings after all, and those signed so far were more squad building players rather than first choice starters. Alas, I do not think that's the case. I do get the feeling Gino has decided to pull the plug on us, and has quietly moved some players over to Udinese in this window.

He's no longer investing (it appears) but will try something new this season as one last throw of the dice before he sells at the end of the season, just in case it provides an unexpected jackpot. I'm probably wildly wrong about it, but if he was thinking of selling, this is the strategy I would expect him to use. Clear debt, subtly move players over to the sister club, then at the end of the season move some more (like Kone and maybe Asprilla/Louza) before selling up.

 

It will be nice to have some real football to discuss soon. Only a week and a half to go!

 

We have never sent any decent players to Udinese the best obviously Pereyra who went because he did not want to play in the championship and wasn't in the starting 11 at the end and likewise Deulofeu but he also was in rehab from an ACL. I see your logic about this year, sending the crown jewels with the likes of Quina, Kabasele and possibly Bayo

 

We could do with reinforcements in any number of positions, but the most important ones are CB, DM and GK, elsewhere I feel we're *OK*

 

I too thought that sounded interesting - so I have plotted the relevant data:



To my suprise, it turns out to be a good rule of thumb.
In round numbers, the equation of the trend line is: POINTS = GOALS SCORED + 9

Teams below the trend line were "inefficient" in that they gained fewer points than the equation would predict (eg Middlesboro: only 75 points from 84 goals).
Teams above the trend line were "efficient" in that gained more points than the equation would predict (eg Burnley: 101 points from 87 goals).

To check this wasn't a fluke I did the same for the previous two seasons. Again, in round numbers, the equations were:
2020/21 POINTS = GOALS SCORED + 9
2021/22 POINTS = 0.9 x GOALS SCORED + 12

So, this would suggest that if we want to be in the playoff mix (70 points or so) we need to be targetting 60 or so goals scored. (Interestingly, this is the exact same conclusion I reached from a previously posted analysis of goals for and against.)

 

Hi @Ilkley Thanks for this interesting research.

Yes, it was something I don’t think I’d ever heard before. I think Pearce was talking about West Ham and their potential signings of Gallagher and JWP and mentioned both should bring more goals to the team, and then he mentioned that opinion about each goal being scored by a team generally equating to 1 point.

I was nervous to post it as I was sure it would then get shouted down with examples of it not getting close to happening!

 

Last year we scored 56 but got 63 points. So it was 7 out

In the PL Forest scored 38 and got 38 points! Other clubs who got very close were Brentford (a difference of 1), Muff Everton and Pearce’s West Ham (2), Newcastle (3), Arsenal (4) and Man City (5)

Man Utd had a big difference but they kept the most clean sheets, so that wasn’t a surprise.

Leicester also had a big difference but they conceded shed loads so again it’s a bit skewed

 

Intrestin

WOts ur sorce mate

 

Thank you @Malteser2 I'm glad you did post it, as I didn't hear it myself. And, like you, I thought it would be easily challenged. Obviously, it's only a rule of thumb, but even so, why aren't we all familiar with it?

 

Probably because we don’t seem to have many goal scorers on our books

 

For the Championship in 2022/23 you need to add 9 to the goals scored to get the points (POINTS = GOALS SCORED + 9) so points is 56 plus 9 = 64, so only out by 1.

The plus 9 indicates that (theoretically speaking) a team scoring no goals at all would still get 9 points.

From the 3 seasons I've looked at I would anticipate that each season in each league would have a slightly different equation. I'll do the sums for the 22/23 PL.

 

My source? The basic data is just the goals for and points from the end of season table, or is that not what you meant?
The chart is simply the goals for and points plotted against each other and then I let Excel plot the (straight) line, for which it gives the equation.

 

U bin relibel b4 OK

 

As promised, here is the chart for the 2022/23 PL that you refer to:



Again, in round numbers POINTS = 0.9 x GOALS SCORED + 6

Forest (0.9 x 38) + 6 = 40 (to the nearest whole point). Actual = 38 pts.
Brentford (0.9 x 58) + 6 = 58. Actual = 59 (So close to expectations.)
Manure (0.9 x 58) + 6 = 58. Actual = 75 (A difference of +17 so very efficient at getting points from goals scored.)
Leicester (0.9 x 51) + 6 = 52. Actual = 34 (A difference of -18 so very inefficient at converting goals scored into points.)

 

Is it raining in Yorkshire?

 

I'm bored and out of touch with what we've been doing all summer so just looked it up. Thought this summary would be interesting to others
IN
Healey, Ince, Livermore, Martins, Lewis

OUT
João Pedro, Sarr, Troost-Ekong, Hungbo, Quina, Kabasele, Fletcher, Assombalonga, Gaspar, Bacuna, Cathcart, Cleverley, Kamara

23/24 Squad
GK
Hamer, Bachmann, Okoye

FB/WB
Lewis (assuming no last minute muck up), Morris, NGakia, Ferreira

CB
Porteous, Hoedt, Sierrelta, Pollock

WM
Kalu, Sema, Ince, Baah

CM/AM
Louza, Livermore, Ince, Kone, Asprilla, Dele-Bashiru, Kayembe, Ince

CF
Healy, Martins, Bayo,

The state of the squad is frightening

 

It's chucking it down. Plus, Mrs Ilkley has a friend staying who can natter at an international level, so working on the laptop is a good cover.

 

“Working” ?

 

You’ve seen his complicated analysis?!!

 

It’s just procrastination from “real” work.

 

There's no rebuild, there's no long term plan. We're just filling the squad with more old duffers and loans that we won't be able to make permanent next summer because we're broke. It's the same plan as the last couple of years but with a lower standard of player.

Pozzo just takes it season by season, the only long term thinking this bloke does is how many crap players he can tie down to long contracts. Cobble together a turgid group in the summer and then throw a few head coaches at it in the hope that one will make it work. If not just try again next season.

 

Having 3 players called Ince might get confusing

 

It’s a clever way to get away with having a very small squad. I suspect Bachmann could also play upfront if required but don’t expect him to show any interest in any long deep high crosses.

 

It'll be 4 Inces when Paul inevitably becomes manager in October.

 

Player manager.

 

So, are you Pozzo in or Pozzo out?

 

To make the starting 11, do we think Healey and any other CF’s we sign who don’t fulfil the ‘Big target man hold up role’, are going to have to play in the Martins / Sema positions from the other day?

The upside potential of Healey is that he appears to know how to shoot (crazy I know), yet VI likes to use a big man up top with players working off him.

We’ve not seen (yet) a 2 man CF formation.

Lots of talk (which I’m not denying) of bringing in players to suit the managers game, but based on, admittedly just 2/3 games, Healey doesn’t appear to have a role?

 

The club wanted Healey long before Ismael arrived. He's here whether Ismael wants him or not so he'll have to shoehorn him in somewhere or not play him.

 

Ahhh yes, the Watford way, repeatedly and relentlessly sign completely unsuitable players that manager #237 doesn't actually want whatsoever.

#LessonsLearned