Werewolf - Road To Qatar - Day 2

Discussion in 'Werewolf: The forum game' started by Otter, Nov 17, 2022.

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Day 2 lynching

Poll closed Nov 17, 2022.
  1. AshdonWFC

    7.7%
  2. Cthulhu

    53.8%
  3. HappyHornet24

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. Horace_goes_up_north

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. miked2006

    7.7%
  6. nornironhorn

    7.7%
  7. Optimistichornet

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. Steve Leo Beleck

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. TomWatfordFC

    7.7%
  10. tonycotonstache

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  11. wfcmoog

    15.4%
  12. wfcSinatra

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  13. With A Smile

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
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  1. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Definitely seen this approach from you before even when good and when bad. Was it one year you were obsessed with a Stormzy lyric? Haha, I love it!!!
     
    wfcmoog likes this.
  2. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    I’m pleased you picked up on this actually as it peaked my interest yesterday.

    Didn’t somebody actually @ Harrow yesterday despite an earlier post from another villager saying not to do so?

    Thought it was a bit odd at the time… may revisit.
     
  3. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    Answering myself. Moog said not to tag Harrow.

    SLB then tagged Harrow a couple of posts later, but to no avail.

    Bizarre behaviour.
     
    wfcmoog likes this.
  4. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    I think out of everyone Norn's the one most likely to be Good:

    Two styles of message, coded and non coded.

    The non coded one is not copied today.

    Someone whether that be messager 2 or 3 has imitated the other one's style. That surely suggests it's to confuse us because the coded message is the genuine Seer. If it was two members of Team Good, why on earth would the second "Seer" copy the first one's style? Therefore one of the coded messages is the Seer, and the coded message on Day 1 was also the Seer. This means Norniron is Good, surely?
     
  5. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    I was right then I think
     
  6. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    The common use of capital letters and speech marks.
     
  7. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Squad Player

    You gettin way too big for ya boots
     
    wfcSinatra likes this.
  8. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Thanks. Will look back.

    Out of interest, why did you say one of the inactive players was a wolf yesterday? Strange throwaway comment to make!
     
  9. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    If you get eaten by a wolf tonight and I get lynched, I hope this gets remembered.
     
    AshdonWFC likes this.
  10. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Why would that comment be any stranger than any of the other comments I made?
     
  11. tonycotonstache

    tonycotonstache Squad Player

    Didn't someone in the last game go after punctuation marks and full stops to look for codes?

    Someone who hasn't posted much who then puts a couple of messages but one has poor grammar?
     
  12. TomWatfordFC

    TomWatfordFC Reservist

    That's quite fair - although may turn out to be a waste of a vote!
     
  13. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Can see with them all side by side that Message 3 is much more like Message 1 yesterday.

    However, think the code is the only way of knowing for certain. A sloppy, inconsistent Seer would've opened the door to a clever Evil to more accurately mirror their initial style. But this could well be me trying to convince myself my earlier thought process was correct and a spot of confirmation bias.

    At the moment, I'm inclined to agree with you.

    Clearly the code is a snippet of football commentary followed by a number. The only one of those snippets that comes up on Google is Message 3, which shows it as something Martin Tyler says on FIFA. If anyone else can work out where the other quotes come from that would be very useful and wouldn't jeopardise the entire code as it's still got the numbers as the second part.
     
  14. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Shut Up
     
  15. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Trying to get my head around the logic for concluding which message is from whom. Help me out, please. (NB. All these scenarios assume that Team Good hasn’t been royally shafted again with a tinker view)
    1. We assume Message 1 is the wolf - but why did they name a player evil on day 2? And why name a player who had already been named as good? Or is that precisely why they did that? The wolf doesn’t know who the other evil players are and so didn’t want to risk accidentally “outing” a fellow evil? In this scenario, nornironhorn is good and Ashdon is unproven.
    2. We assume Message 1 is the seer - but why did they view nornironhorn who, most of us agree, didn’t seem an obvious view after Day 1. And why was there no rationale given for the view? In this scenario, nornironhorn is evil and Ashdon is good.
    3. We assume Message 2 is the seer - gives a logical rationale for viewing moog; but is it all a little too obvious and convenient? In this scenario, nornironhorn is good and moog is evil.
    4. We assume Message 2 is the wolf - sees that the seer has viewed a fellow evil so has to name another player as evil to deflect. In this scenario, nornironhorn is evil and moog is unproven (so a risky move by the wolf as they may have accidentally named an actual evil player) BUT after the third message there is another possibility:
    5. We assume this message is neither the Alpha nor the Seer, but another role. Imitating this style of message from Day 1. In this scenario, I would assume it is an evil player. But if their message is imitating the seer’s, why would they post it before the seer? Surely it would be better to wait and see who the seer has viewed, in case they catch an evil? In this scenario, honestly, **** knows what the motivation is to name moog as evil or what conclusions we can draw. We have no clue what this player knows - ie do they know which message is which or are they guessing too? Is it a Beta wolf (who doesn’t know the other evil players) or the traitor (who does)?
    6. As for Message 3, it definitely matches the message from day 1 naming nornironhorn as good more exactly but we know from previous games we can’t rely on this. I am more inclined to think, though, that this and the Day 1 message were written by the same person and that message 2 is an imitation.
    7. If, though, Message 3 is the imitation it could be an evil player who knows that one of the previous messages is about a genuine evil but doesn’t know which one so tries to clear them both to send Team Good down a blind alley.
    8. We can’t be certain that the imitated message was the seer’s as we don’t know what info the third person was given.

    So to conclude, **** knows. What I would say is that I am intrigued by SLB being so keen to make sure Harrow joined the fold yesterday - traitor trying to call their teammate or just being a good egg and not wanting someone to miss out?
    I am also a little perplexed by miked’s play so far.
     
  16. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    SLB - why did you tag Harrow yesterday when the earlier comment from Moog asked the village not to?
     
    wfcmoog likes this.
  17. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    One hour to go, 7 players not yet voted.
     
  18. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    @HappyHornet24 - regarding point 5, to me the only motivation behind naming Moog evil is to sew the seed of doubt and attempt to get good to lynch good.

    And as for your last paragraph. SLB may have had good intentions, but it could definitely be construed as the act of a traitor attempting to keep one of his own in the game.

    I must say I’m concerned for my wellbeing this evening, so close to the tournament.
     
  19. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    In my defence, I have no idea if Moog is good or evil.
     
  20. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Because I was being fair, he's usually a very active player and it's obviously better for the game if everyone who signs up plays.

    Any suggestion that I knew he was a wolf is obviously flawed given I later set out the logic for voting for him which clearly swayed a number of the players. If I knew he was evil and on his team, I would've tried to stop people voting for him and hope he posted at some point before the end of the day.
     
    nornironhorn likes this.
  21. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Did you see the earlier post setting out why Norn is most likely good?
     
  22. Sinatra, why did you vote Ashdon?
     
  23. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    If you read the entirety of yesterday's afternoon's play rather than focusing on just the tagged post, I'm sure you can answer this question yourself.
     
  24. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Yeah but it’s wrong.

    It’s based on the assumption that message 1 today is likely not the seer when there is no evidence that is true.
     
  25. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Why? Interested to know.
     
  26. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    As above.

    The only facts we know are that if NI is evil then Ashton can’t be good, and that NI and Noog have been named as evil. Everything else is guesswork.
     
  27. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    im curious about this as well?
     
  28. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    Also curious. Going to have to cast my vote soon. I’m either going an eye for an eye with Sinatra as I can’t possibly understand how you’ve landed on me with what has come to light so far, or for SLB/Cthulhu AKA ‘The @ Harrow Day 1 Brigade’.
     
  29. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Ok. If we assume Message 1 is the Seer for argument's sake, what happens next?

    A wolf posts in their consistent coded style from the day before.

    An unknown player (good or bad) also posts in the wolf's style. There is no logical reason for anyone on Team Good to do that, why would they copy the wolf or the Seer as copying is only going to confuse? Why wouldn't they just post in a completely different style?

    Surely it follows that the unknown character is on Team Evil and they are sewing doubt on the Seer's message? Therefore the coded message on Day 1 is the Seer and Norniron is good.

    Ok there could be some far fetched scenario where a member of Team Good guessed which message was the Seer and got it wrong, or a member of Team Evil wasn't sure which was which and so guessed, but these seem far less likely than an attempt to confuse us as to the Seer's message?

    Do you agree that by copying the coded style that player (whoever they are) was trying to confuse the village and is therefore likely evil?
     
  30. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Huh?
     
    wfcmoog likes this.
  31. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

  32. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Playing devil’s advocate, a clever evil player might imitate the wolf’s style for precisely that reason - to make Team Good assume that style is the seer and steer us away from the actual seer message. However, I agree that this seems more unlikely than it being an attempted imitation of the seer’s message.
     
  33. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    I've explained why I think Norn is good above and unless Mike can come back and convince me why the unknown third role would copy the wolf instead of the Seer, I'll be voting Moog as he was named Evil, even if not 100% convinced by the message.

    It's either that or a completely random punt which I don't like.
     
  34. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

  35. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Well quite, nothing is factual as we don't know what rules (and roles!) we're playing. So the question is 'which is more likely?'
     
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