Summerwolf - Chapter 4 'tabula Rasa'

I very much think that will change this evening!

 

I don't feel either of us were worthwhile although I'm obviously happy to have been confirmed as good - I would've gone for (in no particular order) Tom, Tony, Skyla or WT.

Tom has voted late every day, which is a textbook attempt to go unnoticed and blend in. My suspicion around Tony came from him announcing where the Sannino references came from mainly, and Skyla has been playing a very interesting game. Her messaging style has totally changed and I believe she's trying to cause confusion and send us down blind alleys through her vague posts. WT has been very quiet for the majority of the game which naturally causes suspicion.

 

The key for me is the mentioning of the backup seer in message 1 and the fact that the late message is just that, very late. I think the wolf has been forced into a message when they weren't going to post one after seeing the backup seer mentioned.

For me the pirate messages are now the wolf, and it's a very confident, very experienced player.

 

CLARIFICATION - I post messages as soon as I can in between work visits. This means sometimes there may be a delay from when I was sent the message to when it was posted.

 

People start to believe the first message is the seer, then suddenly the second message appears? Smells like a panicked wolf to me.

I think the first message is our back up seer, and is an inexperienced player.

I believe our pirate is a wolf, and an intelligent experienced player too.

Edit- @Diamond great minds!

 

Agreed totally. We likely have an inexperienced Seer who's just been thrown into the spotlight and an experienced wolf who's been rattled.

 

I’m very dubious of @Diamond now attempting to overturn the one thing we have worked out to a high degree of certainty.

I think Diamond may be our experienced player who is playing both sides.

@WatfordTalk - seems like Opti has somewhat debunked your reasoning for going along with Diamond?

 

Never rule anything out.

It's possible CB was a tinker. It's also possible the Seer did die overnight and we have a new one.

Obviously unlikely but to completely close that door in my opinion isn't sensible.

 

Yep just seen Opti's post. Only fully debunks the theory if we know the time the message was sent. I think the theory still holds water

 

So am I right in thinking that if the first message is the Seer, one of BRLR, Sinatra and SLB was our original Seer? Any clues in their postings over the first 3 days?

 

Another reason for me changing my mind on this is that an inexperienced seer would nearly always go for an experienced player to view over logic, so Moog is a good candidate, as would Asdon be or myself.

No problem with doubt being on myself whatsoever, I do tend to ramble on in games which leads to this, but better to share thoughts as it can bring out quieter players.

 

I’m not completely closing anything off - obviously things need to be looked at. But I think we shouldn’t go chasing after the unlikely and then allowing ourselves to be talked into it given we have 3 wolves ready to do so.

My fresh suspicion list is topped by Diamond and Skyla for sure. Tonycotonstache has fallen down it a bit as I’m beginning to think the comment he made that caused suspicion was naive, not malicious. But he is still under question.

Anyone able to decipher the message at the end of Message 2?

Also, SLB went hard for Ashdon and Harrow on Day 1? Has that theory of his been discounted?

 

I'm not sure there was much belief that the first message today was from the seer. In fact quite the opposite.

We can't rule it out, but certainly the consensus remained for most of the day that it was probably the wolf.

 

You have to say this is a fair point.

 

Sorry, certainly finding it harder to follow this today from the office. Looks like I’m in for some decent reading on the train home.

High level generic thoughts so far:
- interesting change in message style from SkylaRose
- have we actually lost our original Seer, or is the wolf trying something different?
- usually when the Seer dies, a ‘Very Good’ notation is used in the write-up. I acknowledge Opti has clarified this, so you can ignore this part and my earlier message this morning as it sounds like this could possibly have happened.
- For what it’s worth I am still inclined to believe that the pirate-themed message is our Seer. It all goes back to the CB viewing, and I just think those odds of him actually being the tinker are too remote to put a high degree of confidence in.

 

There are two sides to the coin. On the one side it looks pretty clear-cut which message is which. But on the other, if we are wrong then the backup seer would try to convince us that the first message was legit. Questionable how subtle they should be with their convincing.

 

If Diamond or WatfordTalk get killed tonight then there is a decent chance they are right. Until then though I think we have to continue with the thinking that the pirate is the seer.

 

Sorry guys I don't agree with this. Just look at the players still in the game. How many are inexperienced ? One maybe two we think are evil, which may leave one player.

It goes back to the tinker odds, 1 in 10 i think. The odds and probability are completely against that, although not 100%

Everything about the pirate message is the same as every other day, lay out, welcome, sign off.

Diverting islanders away from what we know and casting doubt isn't helping team good

 

But the chances of us being wrong are remote to be honest.

I understand people being open to the small chance we have got it wrong - but I do not understand the couple of people saying with certainty that we are. There just isn’t the evidence here to back that certainty up.

 

Hang on, if a wolf managed to kill the Seer, then the backup Seer revealed that fact, then the perfect tactic would then to mimic the actual Seer's pirate style of writing, right?

 

Wait what? If they are killed tonight and are shown to be a wolf, then wouldn’t show them to be right!

 

This is exactly the sort of post which convinces me you are evil.

 

Waste a vote on me then.

Is that not a fair point?

 

If ever there was a hint put out to fellow wolves, then this is it
Kill off the people with a joint theory rather than those known to be good
That says "hey those guys were right" in effect leading us in the wrong direction

 

This post certainly doesn’t help shift any of that initial suspicion away from you.

 

I'd argue this is probably Tom being new to the game, if an experienced player said this I'd definitely see it as hint to wolves to kill Diamond and Watford Talk (almost like he knows their theory is wrong and their deaths would lead is up the wrong path).

 

No it is not.

Why would a back up seer either want to mimic another poster's style, which would be confusing and deceptive and also, why would they want to mimic the pirate style, which if they genuinely were the backup seer, would make that pirate style the wolf's.

 

Who said Skyla's messages were more coherent today

 

Welcome back!

 

As theories go, this isn't terrible