Seems more people are happy with a new approach towards signing young players from lower leagues / Scotland at the moment, but we do all know we need a new starting XI CF. Often there are calls for the club to sign a ‘proven Premier League goalscorer’. And, most of the time, they don’t. So got me thinking, is there one that we could actually sign. So the first issue - what counts as ‘proven’. Obviously this will be different for everyone, but I went with 2 criteria; 1) to have scored at least 20 goals in the Premier league (actually I dropped this to 19 in the end!) 2) to have a minutes per goal ratio of 270 minutes per goal (1 every 3 full games played). Now this dug up more players than expected so I added the following; 1) Must still be playing! 2) The stats above must have been achieved within the last 10 years 3) I was only interested in CF’s, no attacking midfield type players. 4) Must be some sort of (even if very tiny) chance we could sign them, eg not Harry Kane. I’ve considered a few as very remotely possible loans. So here is what I found - prem goals in last 10 years given and minutes per goal in brackets. I’ve also added age. Olivier Giroud 90 (161) age 34 Christian Benteke 82 (221) age 30 Daniel Sturridge 71 (147) age 31 Jermaine Defoe 65 (216) age 38 Chicharito 53 (148) age 32 Andy Carroll 51 (258) age 32 Edin Dzeko 50 (142) age 35 Josh King 48 (255) age 29 Chris Wood 47 (201) age 29 Steven Fletcher 45 (225) age 34 Demba Ba 43 (160) age 35 Glenn Murray 37 (204) age 37 Charlie Austen 34 (187) age 31 Loic Remy 28 (161) age 34 Tammy Abraham 26 (193) age 23 Dwight Gayle 26 (231) age 31 Graziano Pelle 23 (236) age 35 Mario Balotelli 21 (188) age 30 Divock Origi 19 (178) age 26 Leonardo Ulloa 19 (215) age 34 And a few who missed out that I was surprised didn’t have a better mins / goals ratio; Jay Rodriguez 42 (287) age 31 Ashley Barnes 41 (279) age 31 Aleksandar Mitrovic 24 (289) age 26 Andre Ayew 21 (296) age 31 And for comparison here’s our 2 plus one from last season; Danny Welbeck 49 (271) age 30 Troy Deeney 47 (273) age 32 Andre Gray 23 (255) age 29
I think your criteria clearly generates a list that that skews old. Origi and Abraham are the only players on your list under the age of 29 - the former isn't that great (indeed, you had to change your criteria to enable his inclusion) and the latter is not very realistic. I think if that list is the output, the input is a wrong. I'd like to see us sign a proven goalscorer - someone who has experience and performed well either in a top five league (or potentially Austria, Portugal, Belgium, Holland, South America and the Championship too) and who has scored goals in a number of different teams or at least in a number of different seasons. Being able to play up front by themselves is a helpful plus. We can throw 3m/year at Benteke to sign him on a free on a two year contract and see him sign 6 goals during that period. Or we can push the boat out and sign Ivan Toney or Odsonne Edouard - a young striker of that ilk on the same wages but for a big fee - well aware that their resale value is likely to increase and they'll get considerably more goals than one of these over the hill players. Or we can sign someone like Ugbo or Muani, who we'll be able to sell at a profit even if they only have the output of someone like Benteke we'll be able to sell them on too.
Lol, you've basically spent hours compiling a list of over the hill strikers who have pretty much already finished scoring the vast majority of their PL goals. I think you should have spent a bit longer on your supposed "thinking" before making such an effort.
Can we sign a few of these and then get them managed by Sir Alex Ferguson? He has won a PL title within the last 10 years. It's a foolproof plan for PL glory next season!
The only possible excuse I can see for this car-crash of a post is that the signing of Ashley Fletcher is the final straw that has understandably broken the camel's back of sanity for many Watford fans.
Thanks for your input and comments lowerrous. So just to add, I’m not suggesting we sign any of those. Although there are a few I’d be happy with. I was highlighting that if / when people start saying, as they often do, we need a proven Premier League goalscorer then that’s the best there is. And as I pointed out, what counts as ‘proven’ can be determined in different ways. I could have removed all those I wouldn’t want , don’t rate, and yes there are plenty of obvious ones in those categories. I like a stat, so was happy to do this anyway regardless.
Be good to see which players are out there that we would have a chance of signing who are ‘proven goalscorers’ in the top 5 leagues. Of course, some people will then raise the issue of whether than can perform in the Premier League. But then, that’s kind of my point, for a club like ours, getting proven premier league goals is tough going.
I wouldn’t say they need to be proven in the PL, this would be ideal but clearly not realistic. My own personal benchmark would be someone who could score 12 goals from open play. 10 goals is generally considered a good return for the mid to lower level strikers and some of those will include penalties as well. Chris Wood was recently applauded for reaching 10 goals for the season again as an example. Very rudimentary, but if you imagine those 12 goals make a difference in say half the games they’re scored in (with the others coming in either wins by more than two, or more than likely losses by more than two) and half of those earn draws and half earn wins, then thats 9 points those goals will directly earn. Then they’ll get a few more from penalties and a few assists as well. Factor those in and you’re looking at that player contributing at least a third of the total points we’ll need to stay up. No doubt a few championship strikers could manage that, or a striker from one of the top five leagues who is either young or close-ish to those numbers already. Our current lot wouldn’t get 12 between them, they didn’t even in the championship and hence we’ll be relegated if we don’t make a serious attempt to remedy it.
I note Benteke has suddenly gone a goal scoring run, just as he becomes a free agent at the end of the season. Please let’s hope the Fletcher signing takes this one off the clubs radar.
Anyone we sign will be a punt, but I think most of us would agree that the likes of Ugbo and Santos Borre would be low risk (financially, if not in terms of us retaining Prem status), but potentially high reward punts. Now we have to go and get them and make sure we're not relying on Deeney and Fletcher!
I've already renewed my ST and now it transpires we building the shittest premier league side in history. Alan Smart and Jamie Hand will look world class compared to the crap we are targeting.
We’re building a crap championship side, let alone premier league. I’m genuinely concerned we’re due a points deduction, or Gino has gone senile and doesn’t realise we’ve been promoted.
Just refund your ticket and so hand it to someone who actually supports their team . You’re a winner , the clubs a winner and everyone on this forum who has to read your whining is a winner too .
And he’s be miles better than any of our other striker. The guy has struggled yes at Palace but they aren’t the most attacking of teams and he seems to be a confidence player. A half decent team somewhere in Europe will pick him up.
Benteke, Origi, King and Abraham will be potentially moving and want to play, so we might have a sniff. I can see little value in anyone else at all. Mitrovic seems the most likely Ighalo? And thanks for posting, lowerrous spectacularly misses the point in laughing off the list.
You get what you pay for. Most teams with a striker who can get into double figures from open play will stay up, so although that type of wage is steep, it more than pays for itself. Gray and Deeney are on more than that between them and couldn’t get into double figures in the championship between them.
Mitrovic gets compared to Deeney a lot but remarkably he’s still only 26. He obviously wasn’t favoured this season but then Fulham were relegated so it’s not like they necessarily did better without him. He scored 26 goals in the championship last season in a team that only made the playoffs, so he’s light years ahead of what we’ve already got.
We need to sign someone that's due to and has the talent to get 20 goals a season, not has had 20 goals in a season. Preferably two of them.
Its always been said amongst the football community the need to find a 20 goal a season striker. But if you are talking Premier League games only, even 10 goals is good going playing for some clubs. We didn't even have a CF get 10 league goals in the Champ did we? But, either way, I know what you are saying. And just to clarify again, my original post was not my suggestion of players we should go get because they have scored 20. It's a list pre-made when anyone says "we need to sign a proven Premier League goal scorer". If that's what we want / need then the pickings are above. And out of those I'd say I'd be happy with 4/5 with another couple ok as a bench option.
Ok, so I've changed the settings to look at those who have scored 20 Premier League goals in the last 5 seasons only. Taken out the ones well beyond our reach and ignored their mins / goals (in brackets) to still include them. Here is the list (kept Troy and Andre in for comparison); Chris Wood 46 (203) Josh King 42 (245) Ashley Barnes 36 (250) Troy Deeney (34 (281) Olivier Giroud 33 (144) Christian Benteke 31 (299) Marko Arnautovic 27 (261) age 32 Tammy Abraham 26 (191) Glenn Murray 26 (211) Salomon Rondon 26 (318) age 31 Andre Gray 23 (255) Jay Rodriguez 21 (331)
I feel oddly confident about find a decent striker. Theres a lot of players who have fallen down the pecking order at their club and would be available. Is Origi happy sitting on the bench occasionally? Wheres he going to go? There lots of players like Batshuayi who might be decent as our #9. Just got to find the right fit and theres no reason they cant hit 10-15 goals or more.
All of those players mentioned are ones who have already been discussed at length in the transfer suggestions thread.
Thats the list then. What would you do? All in for Toney? Take Rondon on 4 year old form? Its a sparse set of options. I'd go to Europe and find someone smashing in goals for fun and add someone experienced if possible like Giroud/Benteke on loan if possible.
I doubt we could afford their wages tbh and can't see any of them wanting to play for a team battling relegation.
The point is it's a dumb list based on flawed thinking and poor criteria. There's actually not "a sparse set of options" for potentially good strikers at all, it might only appear that way if you narrow your focus in the wrong direction as EB Hornet is doing.
Fair enough. If you dont care about a new #9 fitting set criteria, you'll be happy with Ashley Fletcher or jonny foriner from Bulgarian/Belgium league 2. Personally I'd be attempting recruiting from a set of criiteria in order to raise the chance of success.
Read my post again - I was pointing out that the criteria being suggested above is a poor, misguided and overly limiting one. I didn't say that no criteria should be considered.
