Weredeer day 3 with poll

Discussion in 'Old Games' started by Meh!, Dec 7, 2016.

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  1. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    First impression is that this message is from the wolf. They've reacted to comments on here today and decided to post after all.

    Whether this costs doubt on CB or not... Unclear.
     
  2. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Agreed, miked yesterday suggested that the seer should look at CB, which I would have agreed with. I think the first message was designed to see if we would suspect a very low poster but it also showed the style was very inconsistent with previous messages.
     
  3. Grrwood

    Grrwood Reservist

    Personally I'm inclined to agree with you. It's not late in the day by any means but it seems late to be responding to the first message. Either way it puts both CB and Jellyman right in the spotlight.
     
  4. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Now it gets interesting. Second message definitely more in the style of the previous ones but why would the seer wait so long to post?
     
  5. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Also, not sure if it's already been clarified but are we playing with one extra Weredeer or two? Or are we not allowed to know?
     
  6. Grrwood

    Grrwood Reservist

    We're playing with 2 Weredeer (including the alpha), judging by the kills/attempts each night according to Meh's narrative.
     
  7. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    Remember, the Wolf has no more idea who else is good/evil than we do, they have no viewing capability like the Seer. That 2nd message has Wolf written all over it.
     
  8. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    So including that Grinch that means 3 out of 11 people on this thread are evil. 27%!

    If we take the word of the second message today as the Seer, that would clear you and CB.

    That leaves us with:

    Me (Squibba), HH24, Diamond, Cthulhu, Harrow Orn, Jellyman, Otter, Steve Harrow & SLB as potential evil.
     
  9. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Explain?
     
  10. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    Think we have to be careful of "in the style of" being a reason to trust something (a clever wolf could easily copy a style) first two day's seer messages were different in style after all and both from the seer.

    That being said I am in two minds as to what is the seer post today. Not sure which way my gut is going.

    Second one today is at the right time for the seer of the first day and does have the in the style of feel of both the others.
    On the other hand why wait so long as seer to respond to the first "wolf" message and seems to be reactionary to some extent to discussions today

    So Im unsure.

    And remember 3 of the 11 people left are evil, they are very much amongst us.
     
  11. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    8000th post !
     
  12. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    Finally, two messages in one day giving us some time to discuss this rationally.

    Can't see why the Seer would change their writing style all of sudden which leads me to believe that the first message is from the Wolf - which raises questions as to why they chose a mash of two names knowing that we already knew Grrwood is good?

    P.s I think I've worked out who the Seer is.

     
  13. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    I think that the last message is the wolf. I also think it is from an inexperienced wolf.

    The person who is a newbie is Steve Leo Beleck, and looking at his post he is constantly trying to remind us that he is a newbie. I think he might be evil.
     
  14. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    Further to my post, he asked me about my comments about CB earlier this thread, on how I think the wolf was trying to frame him. Now CB has been implemented in what I believe is the wolf's message. It all seems too much of a coincidence.
     
  15. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    I need to vote before 5pm. SLB you have just under an hour and a half to defend yourself your I will put my vote to you.

    Btw, when I said my suspicions were on Diamond, I was merely trying to get a response for more clues. Didn't get one :(
     
  16. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    The wolf will of course know that THEY are evil. They may also have a notion (rightly or wrongly) who the beta wolf is. That would implicate Cassetti's Beard. Possibly!

    I'm with you on this being the wolf. As I see it, the Seer alone messaged on Monday and Tuesday and wrote the first message today. The wolf's only message was the second today.
     
  17. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    I also think the second message is the wolf, and think it's in response to some of this afternoon's postings. I'm intrigued by your response to me and it strikes me that you must be evil and you're worried that a) I've worked out who the Seer is from yesterday's message and b) My theory about an experienced player being the Weredeer and choosing not to post for the first two days is correct. Add to that the fact that you decided to put me on the clock to clear myself when you knew that I was going to be out of action for most of this afternoon leads me to conclude that you're evil and you're rattled.

    The biggest indicator that I'm not the Weredeer comes on Day 1 when I made a mistake with the rules and thought that the Weredeer could view one player a day, same as the Seer. If I was the Weredeer, surely I would've known that's not the case!
     
  18. Grrwood

    Grrwood Reservist

    Here's my current thinking as simply as possible:

    We have to vote for either Jellyman or Cassetti's Beard as the names mentioned and with nothing else to go on.
    Personally I believe that today's first message in from the seer, which would clear Jellyman. So my current thinking is that I'll be voting to lynch Cassetti's Beard.
     
  19. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    You'll see that I'm good in a few hours if that becomes the majority decision.

    Be interesting to see if Jelly is good or bad when his turn comes.
     
  20. Grrwood

    Grrwood Reservist

    You of course may both be innocent, or I'm completely wrong. I just feel that the timing of the second post was weird and seemed solely to address concerns that as a village we had just cottoned on to. Could be a clever ploy by the wolf to set you up but it's the first time we've had 2 people to choose from that have been thrust into the spotlight.
     
  21. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    Rattled? Not at all. I've played this game a fair few times now and this is what I do. I throw accusations at everyone until I get the response I don't like. A response such as yours above. Especially the bit in bold. You are playing the newbie card, again. Playing that card too many times to make it look like you are an innocent villager.

    @Everyone: If you lot all vote for CB, and he turns out to be good, then please take a look at Steve Leo Beleck. A wolf targeted me last night so they will most probably do so again tonight. So keep this post in mind as I will not be able to repeat myself.

    I do not think CB is evil anymore. I misread that. My vote has been placed.
     
  22. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    Why? One is definitely good, the other is a random name thrown out by the Weredeer which has a less than 50% chance of being evil.
     
  23. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Got a Talib Kweli show tonight so going to get my vote in early.

    I'm now almost certain the first message was from the Wolf.

    The message from yesterday and today's 2nd message both explain the thinking behind supposed viewing. Today's first message seems too rushed, spelt his name wrong and he/she even said on Day 2 that they'll be viewing CB next.

    Also Jellyman has been non-existent again, I don't think CB would be so vocal if he was the wolf. Of course it could be neither of them but out the two my vote has to go with Jellyman.
     
  24. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Wait..

    If Jellyman is the Wolf and he's sent that message to clear his own name, he wouldn't spell his own Username wrong would he?

    Sh*t.
     
  25. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Fair enough, your vote has been cast (albeit incorrectly). Saying that you're new to the game is no different to saying that you've played the game a fair few times - they're both simply justifications for your way of thinking.

    I am more than happy for people to read through all my posts over the last three days and judge whether they think I have been attempting to deceive anyone. I would've had to make a deliberate mistake on my first substantive posting about the game, invented seeing something that I thought was a clue with a digital footprint, and put forward a theory that one of the wolves is inexperienced thus pointing the finger at myself.

    I actually had you down as more than likely Team Good until you decided to fit me up this afternoon. I'm now suspicious of you, particularly as you gave me a short window to reply and decided you had to vote before 1700 yet are still showing online now, over 20 minutes later.

    Having said all that, I accept that you may just be a blundering buffoon rather than actually on Team Evil so I won't vote for you. It would be a punt, whereas Jellyman/Cassetti's Beard is more or less 50/50.
     
  26. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Very good point. Anyone else could make that typo but how many times does anyone ever write their own username wrong?

    Makes it even more likely that the second message is the wolf.
     
  27. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    But did he hope that someone would come to the conclusion it's not him because he spelt his name wrong? Bit of a risky tactic. Now starting to think neither CB or Jellyman are the wolf.
     
  28. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    Will be able to log in later and make a quick vote but there's still not much to go on. I may have to follow the crowd for self preservation if it goes that way.
     
  29. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    I'm still unsure, however I wonder whether Jellyman will post and vote? Could be in danger of being kicked off as there's only 45 minutes left.
     
  30. Grrwood

    Grrwood Reservist

    We have until 8 today so a bit more time. Still unsure who to go for.
     
  31. Grrwood

    Grrwood Reservist

    Who else do we vote for? The other 2 lynchings were based on hunches - at least here we have a toss up between 2, one of whom is potentially being protected by the Wolf. I'm not sure there's a decent argument for voting for anyone else instead?
     
  32. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Just back from latest round of chauffeuring. I don't think the wolf naming either Jellyman or CB means that either are necessarily evil. But equally I'm finding Harrow's reasons for suspecting SLB a bit spurious. These seem to be the three names in the frame, however, rightly or wrongly and there's not much else to go on. At the moment, I'm veering towards either CB or Jellyman but I'm not sure which.
     
  33. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Going to vote soonish so I'll leave you with my tuppence worth in case I get killed before tomorrow:

    I think HarrowOrn is the traitor. He named me as evil this afternoon and he's wrong. On top of that, he said he had to vote by 1700 at the latest yet every time I've looked since he's been online, including now. I think he just can't help checking to see if his plan to deflect away from Team Evil worked.

    As for the wolves, really not sure but I think my experienced Alpha/less experienced Beta theory is solid and that's why HarrowOrn had to act and attempt to sacrifice himself by taking me out of Team Good.
     
  34. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    Its because I am on tapatalk and not at my desk. I cannot vote for some reason even with web view on my phone. Still here and im certainly not the traitor.
     
  35. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    It seems to me that the Wolf has made an error here. If this message was from the Seer, he also wouldn't know whether Jellyman is good or evil and he wouldn't therefore suggest lynching. So I reckon this second message is definitely from the Wolf because he knows Jellyman is good and there's no risk to him being the Beta wolf and being lynched. A lynch vote for Jellyman here would be silly no?
     
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