Werewolf XVI: Day 7

Discussion in 'Old Games' started by 352, Jun 9, 2015.

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  1. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    right have to make my way home

    Fingers crossed - cross my heart opps no i'm not saying that

    I've enjoyed it so far and want to carry on and see good win
     
  2. wfcmatt

    wfcmatt First Year Pro

    Check the messages- the second message was only posted 3 minutes after the first one by 352, and 352 said he'd received the second message " a few minutes ago". The second message clearly wasn't any kind of response to the first one, it was probably sent at the same time 352 posted the first message.
     
  3. wfcmatt

    wfcmatt First Year Pro

    I think we're focusing too much on who voted for who, and not looking at the messages close enough. This is what I said yesterday (regarding yesterdays first message):

    "My instinct says that message is from the seer. The chances of viewing the single evil player were very low, and if it was a wolf posting first I presume they would've lead with a message declaring someone as evil.

    Imagine if this was from the wolf. Then he's waiting on a message from the seer which will 1. likely declare a player as good- in which case people may well vote off someone not mentioned in the messages and puts the wolf at risk 2. the seer successfully views the wolf as evil- in which case he's screwed. It makes no sense in my opinion for the wolf to lead with a good message, whereas if he led with an evil message then everyone would likely end up voting the mentioned player off. In short, the wolf has nothing to gain from a good message and everything to gain from an evil one.

    Also worth noting that the first message today was posted not too far off the same time as the seers message yesterday. Could be a coincidence or clever wolf play, but if the second message doesn't arrive soon I believe that will be a further indication, as it was the wolfs tactic to wait until mid afternoon yesterday to post.

    If this first message is indeed from the seer it does create a conundrum for who to vote for since we have no leads to go on. So as always, hopefully the second message will make things clearer and we must wait for it before deciding what to do."


    Please tell me where the logic is wrong in that? I'm convinced the first message yesterday was the seer, and if so Squibba has to go today! (as that message is clearly from the same person). Come on people, please tell me where I was wrong in my logic yesterday if not. We have to get this right today, no point thinking aww well we'll just get the wolf tomorrow if we don't get him today. Just think carefully about it.
     
  4. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Vote WAS and if he's not evil then fine vote me tomorrow.
     
  5. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    I know there's the theory of the wolf not posting first when declaring evil but it appears that the messages were sent at roughly the same time today and there wasn't time for one to read the first message before writing theirs.

    My gut reaction when reading the first message today was it was the wolf. With little else to separate WAS and Squibba today, that's the deciding factor for me and I've voted Squibba. Have to go to a function now so here's hoping I'll come out to a wolf having being lynched!
     
  6. nairobi hornet

    nairobi hornet Reservist

    Still not sure, really gonna have to think about this, may go to the wire
     
  7. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    I love the buy me another day plee. The only way you're not evil is if you are the other tinker

    Squibba - Steves talking to you....
     
  8. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    I genuinely think there's a chance your'e not evil. I think someone could of played a blinder with today's message - woof woof - but at this rate one of us has to go.
     
  9. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Not so much reading to do today.....sorry Im late again btw. I swear the horses down here have decided to all pull a sicky during the summer.
     
  10. wfcmatt

    wfcmatt First Year Pro

    So nobody has come up with a single reason for my theory being incorrect, yet they still feel reason to vote against it?
     
  11. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    Squibba we should both have voted for someone else !

    I'm sure when they take their dog for a stroll later they will have a big grin on their face and their tail will be wagging
     
  12. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    Genuinly guys, forget the erratic game play, I will 100000000% guarantee that I'm a good villager.

    I'm not going to do the vote for Squibba and i de tomorrow rubbish. I believe that if Squibba isn't a tinker and proved evil then it will 100% clear my name.

    I can't stop you for voting for who you think, but do urg the last 4 or 5 not to follow the crowd, read the sensible theorys and facts and to make the right choice
     
  13. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Its a difficult one tonight that's for sure. I just cant shake this nagging feeling about you WAS.
     
  14. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    I understand that Opti, but read Matts and HH24's reasoning about messages and timings.

    The clues are there. The wolf has followed the same pattern throughout, name the previous good as evil and get rid.

    Thats how they have kept the field so low and kept it to a two person choice each day
     
  15. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    You know what Matt, im going to give your theory a shot. Sorry squib but ive been thinking about it a lot, if we get rid of you today and your good then I will definitely vote for your nemesis tomorrow.
     
  16. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    opti, if his good then his the tinker - fact

    both Squibba have named the person we think should be looked at if we go.
     
  17. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    its fact to you, but just based on theory for the rest of us. either way ive made my vote, im in your corner at the moment.
     
  18. nairobi hornet

    nairobi hornet Reservist

    People trusted my theory and I was right mainly but wrong with the last one. I will also trust matts theory knowing was is a goner tomorrow if not but is cleared if so
     
  19. wfcmatt

    wfcmatt First Year Pro

    If my theory is wrong, then you guys should never listen to me again. If I'm correct, I may need the help of the guardian tonight to make it to the next day!

    I wonder if Abso even read the thread before voting?
     
  20. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    how do you do the little pop up showing who's posted
     
  21. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    I'm perfectly fine with people who vote with reasoning.

    Not posting all day and voting without explaining your vote is very pointless.
     
  22. wfcmatt

    wfcmatt First Year Pro

    On the sub-forum click on the number of replies this thread has got and it should pop up
     
  23. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    in fairness Abso did contribute at lunchtime, for a post
     
  24. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Ive just been very unlucky with work for the last couple of weeks, however I make it my mission to read the thread thoroughly from start to finish when I get back each day, to try and make an informed decision.
     
  25. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    The majority that have voted for me are those that have been less active

    Less active might mean that they haven't read the who argument and theories
     
  26. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    Well good luck Squibba

    If Squibba is good then his the tinker. If one of us is killed overnight we have both left hints of who to view tomorrow. The way they have voted has countered the wolfs message ( it's easy to know which message is which when you are mentioned and you know your role ) It could almost be the perfect vote
     
  27. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    I think for this a coin toss is probably the fairest way to decide a tie, after the debacle at the world cup last year when there were no odd numbered strikers or wingers on the pitch and someone lost out.
     
  28. 352

    352 Moderator

    Trying to think of a novel way of doing this. Hang tight.
     
  29. wfcmatt

    wfcmatt First Year Pro

    Sort of a shame for it to go down to pot luck, but that's the way it will have to be!

    WAS- if the person killed is the tinker I'm pretty sure 352 will tell us like he did with darave
     
  30. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

  31. 352

    352 Moderator

    The draw has taken place. 2mins. Just got to put this all together.
     
  32. sonofben

    sonofben Reservist

    Hmmm didn't know there was still dog racing about.
     
  33. 352

    352 Moderator

  34. 352

    352 Moderator

  35. 352

    352 Moderator

    And finally, after a few more treats were put on each piece of paper, the result: https://instagram.com/p/3uBuxWD9zN/

    WAS, I'm afraid you lose tonight. Squibba, you live to fight another day.
     
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