Werewolf XVI: Day 4

Agree, his is what I was saying earlier.

Starting to believe WAS could be evil.

 

And seeing as that format is the way in which the seer presented his message on day 1 you would have to presume they are all from the seer. However the wolf could potentially be copying the style exactly from day 2 onwards, but then I don't understand why the seer would change their style and let the wolf get away with copying his so easily.

This suggests miked and Nairobi are good, but we really have no one else to go on. Voting for miked would reveal once and for all who has been sending which messages each day (as one message today says he's good, the other evil)

 

For what it's worth, I believe the first message to be from the seer.

Miked earlier said that he would feature in the message everyday and he has done so again... Maybe this is his way of telling us he's the seer and is good for sure? Or he's just sensing a pattern. Either way he was correct as he's been mentioned again today. The format does seem to be near identical across all 4 messages beginning with day 1 when Cude was named evil and correctly lynched. So I'd be tempted to say mike is good and so is nairobi. In which cause I would suggest we start looking at those that have been on miked and nairobi's back over the last couple of days.

 

Vote Miked, this will answer a lot of unanswered questions, and then we get a second seer if Miked was the seer? Right?

Could be worth it in the long run.

 

If i was then I wouldn't be suggesting to be careful over mike and wouldn't be suggesting that he "could" be the seer. if that is correct then it would be in my interest to have him lynched.

I was also right about Diamond from day 1 when i named him as a evil - plus i voted for him on day 1

We lynched TVoR on the basis of a few ramblings and bizzare theories don't forget

 

I believe you. I'm simply just interrogating you, like I've done with most others, just for information.

 

I've got it down to a list of 13

 

Harrow, you're not one to raise suspicion, you're very very experienced at this, but

Now you are suggesting that we lynch a possible seer ( and there are clues there to suggest that miked is ) and then start believing its myself as soon as this possibility has started to unravel. ( myself as the person thats highlighted this possibility )

You know we would get a replacement seer. You also know that lynching the seer, that could easily be guarded tonight, is a easier option than trying to kill him over night. You also know that the wolves would get two free kills, probably myself and one other if that's the case.

As I say its very very unlike you to raise that sort of suspicion - I don't get it

 

If Miked really was the seer then why would he have just told us on day 2 that he was good and withhold the viewing he made that day from us? I think Miked was just trying to emphasise that he is good as the seer viewed him on day 2, and so the seers message would constantly reiterate this point to make it clear as people are still having doubts over him

 

But what else do we have to go on? It would clear up an awful lot to lynch miked tonight.

 

Lol.

Seriously what do we have to go on? As much as I believe mike is good, the only small bit of evidence actually points towards him. If we get rid of him, yes we might lose a good player, and a seer, but it will answer many questions and I'm sure we will get a backup seer.

I don't see how it is suspicious to be honest. Maybe I should just vote for somebody random instead who hasn't been implemented in a seers message or hasn't had any suspicion thrown upon them yet.

We'll see.

 

Thanks WT. I'm glad somebody gets what I'm saying.

 

So really its just another way of Miked claiming he's 100% good, when in reality the message saying he's good might still be from the wolf.

Anyway guys, I'm off out and won't be back until around 6, at which point I will read the posts and cast my vote. Right now I'm heavily leaning towards Miked since this would finally clear up which messages have been from the wolf and which have been from the seer.

 

Right. First off I think it's pretty dangerous to be using writing styles to try and determine - I'm fairly sure in the last games we were getting messages almost identical in structure as any clever wolf will copy layouts. I'm not taking any theories based on writing styles into consideration I'm afraid.

I'm starting to have doubts on my view from yesterday that the most suspicious are miked and moog. I agree with Harrow that we will get the most from lynching miked tonight - we still have the suspicion carrying over from yesterday and I think it needs clearing up.

Moog is a very experienced player who like last game speaks a lot of sense and has helped make things clearer for me personally. However I would never rule out that this is all an extremely clever double bluff situation. Nevertheless I feel less suspicious of moog today.

I have a sneaking suspicion (although obviously there's no way of knowing for sure) that we now have 2 wolves who don't know each other (although in diamond knew the another wolf but was caught out by the one who knew no one.

Unless I see anything to really change my mind the most obvious choice is miked which will at the very least remove some doubt.

 

the counter is that Miked did say this morning that he would guarantee that the seer would mention his in his message, which happened, not as a view but he received a mention. OK both messages did, one emphasising he was good and one naming his as evil.

As i said earlier Miked is the only person being named as evil at the moment, but my gut feel is that we might have this wrong.

 

I'm confused as to why we would get the most from lynching mike, when logically going by he messages over the 4 days, you can deduct that he probably is good.

This isn't a repeat of yesterday with darave...

 

This would be a terrible idea.

 

If Miked is evil, then the whole Norway conspiracy theory is correct. If not then maybe we can put it to bed and rely on our seer to win. Either way, questions hang over Mike as Norway voted for him on day one.

 

Let's not be rash with our voting today - it seems daft to make votes so early on like previous days.

 

If Miked is the seer, he's dead tonight at the hands of wolfie. If he's a wolf, we won't know if he's still alive tomorrow whether he's guilty our that a clever wolf is bluffing us.

 

You would say that wolfie, following the logic as you keep mentioning leads to us villagers killing their own.

 

Err, I was instrumental in getting cude.

 

I don't think voting Miked is a good idea, after all the new information gained today I don't think he is evil. We should be focusing on someone else.

 

Why does that matter? You didn't know he was a wolf.

No wolf knew the identity of another wolf at this stage.

 

I know. But now I know who thinks it would be a good idea...

 

that piece of info might help with working out who's been collaboration with whom

when did they know ?

 

You may well have all changed my mind there. Really not sure who to go for right now. Keep putting your arguments forward and I'll look at them closely

 

For me, the reasons for voting for Miked are he's been named as evil in one message today (albeit we don't know who by) and his continued insistence that he's 100% good when that hasn't been established at all.

Against that is he's been named good a couple of times now, along with Niarobi today which may either be a bluff but would a wolf named two evil characters as good in one message? Seems very risky. Furthermore, he correctly predicted he would be named. Is he the Seer or has the Seer or Wolf merely reacted to his prediction?

The biggest question for me is if we DON'T vote Miked tonight, who is realistically a better bet?

 

Who though? Until a reasonable suggestion with more evidence against him is brought up, the most logical vote is still to miked.

 

Like my previous post said, have a look at the style of the messages - you can see a trend. Perhaps it's not much to go with but I imagine you'll see a shift in how the messages are written tomorrow.

 

How can you see who voted for who?