Werewolf XVI: Day 1

Discussion in 'Old Games' started by 352, Jun 1, 2015.

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  1. sonofben

    sonofben Reservist

    I think his point is the wolf is canny by not doing that as that is what we would think a smart wolf would do. Or I just made all that up either or.
     
  2. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    :) yeah ok...care to elaborate why if one of the messages is true therefore one of them is evil?
     
  3. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    Bit contradictory?
     
  4. simms

    simms vBookie

    There is a difference between being an active player making the game fun and being foolish and voting without being in full knowledge of the days events. But generally what happens on day one in the past is a novice makes an early vote which everyone finds suspicious and people leap on them instead of using the messages.
     
  5. sonofben

    sonofben Reservist

    I would think a novice player would hide in the back and just vote with the crowd late, at least that's what I used to do. But I could have been an outlier.
     
  6. Abso

    Abso First Year Pro

    Hi All, sorry for late post but i am down in Bath and have just been at Longleat all day to do a piece on animal behaviours. I took extra care to watch the wolves and see how they behaved. They were all very lazy, hid in the long grass and didn't move much apart from to poke their head up once in a while to see what was going on.
    There are going to be soo many theories on who is what to start with and like others have said a lack of evidence at the moment leads to guess work. Also as said i believe both Cude and Darave are more than likely good. I am going to vote today by getting my daughter to chose a name at random, so please dont be offended!
     
  7. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    I tried the who's online tactic last year CB. I was the witness and knew that Darave kept on disappearing and saying he was busy just as I turned the pressure on him. So I made a screenshot of him being active online and got him to say that he was out and couldn’t reply. Went down like a ton of bricks and was kicked off that night!

    *

    Simms, you seem rather sharp usually, so I am not sure if you don’t get it or if you are trying to hide something. If Darave was going to list his own name, HE WOULD NOT GO FIRST.

    If he did, then he is opening up the vast possibility that the seer would look at him. And if that happened, he would 100% be gone. It would be tantamount to suicide. He has no excuses to fall back on as it is day 1. You would certainly save that trick for a couple of days into the process when there are other suspects. The seer looked at darave and the wolf went for Cude. There is no other rational explanation.

    So if everybody has an equal chance of being evil (except perhaps Darave who is very likely good, and Cude who could be one of the four wolves but has less chance of being a wolf than anyone else) why pick Cude? It will tell us about 1 person, who nearly all of us agree is almost certainly not the Alpha and has an overwhelming chance of being innocent.

    So if we have decided that everyone is just as likely to be the wolf, logically you should go for somebody who others are talking about. If you go for VOR, you can either get an evil who has been suspiciously hiding and is normally very active, or you can go after those who have focused on him. It tells you about 3 or so people instead of the one. The posts tomorrow will also give us a better indication whether Cude is innocent or not.

    If you only go by the messages each day (as I found to my huge annoyance as a witness last year), then you ignore the fact that more people know the identities of the wolves i.e. the Witness. S/He will desperately be trying to leave hints, and although these may be clouded by certain comments, all comments give a very good sense of the people to go for.

    By getting an evil out, you can then look at who is defending them irrationally, and who is supporting them, which tells you much more than one post a day.

    It is an absolute fallacy that we can only go after people based on two messages a day, one of which is trying to turn us on the wrong person. You need to read logical arguments and go for the one which you think is most rational.

    There is a very good chance that VOR is innocent. But it will just tell you a lot more about the game than voting for Cude.
     
  8. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    PO, I hear what you're saying & agree that TVOR is behaving 'out of character' so far in this game. But I think we have to stick to the facts and messages on day 1. I think the first message was from the Seer and the second from Wolfie. But the only way to find out whether this is the case is, unfortunately, to lynch Cude.
     
  9. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Ooh have just read miked's post & now I'm torn.
     
  10. Jellyman

    Jellyman Squad Player

    Not true. If the first is the Seer then Darave is good and the second message implicating Cude means nothing. Both could be good, and on the balance of probabilities they PROBABLY are.

    But I won't be easily convinced into lynching somebody else based on flimsy conjecture. Give me a solid argument and I might go with somebody else. So far no accusations have enough weight behind them.
     
  11. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    Decisions, decisions,
    Who’s message to adhere,
    Is the Seer the Wolf,
    Or is the Wolf the Seer.

    Misleading and feeding,
    The minds of us all,
    On which villager to trust,
    On which one to fall.

    But know it we do,
    This day and this night,
    Someone will fall,
    And someone will BITE.

    One thing that’s for sure,
    One thing that will be,
    A hole in the morning,
    Will be filled by me.

    To the close off day one,
    Now the lucky wolves fare,
    Suspicion avoided,
    Villagers… beware!
     
  12. Norwayhornet

    Norwayhornet Squad Player

    Indeed Cude unless we have a very clever player who knows how to sew maximum mayhem ! you have to admit both you and Darave are mighty fine players .last year I was easily led off the path of logic as it was my first year playing , this time around I will try to stick to the messages unless something very damning turns up .
     
  13. Norwayhornet

    Norwayhornet Squad Player

    why are so many voting TVOR on what evidence on what message on what facts or even conjecture is this based on !
     
  14. Norwayhornet

    Norwayhornet Squad Player

    Jelly what if 2nd message is seer (there is no evidence to the contrary) Team good going to look pretty silly eh! oh well you know my opinion .
     
  15. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    You could not be a more obvious evil if you tried...
     
  16. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    He wanted me lynched for my poems.

    It got personal! :dismay:
     
  17. Abso

    Abso First Year Pro

    People are voting TVOR due to PO's post about it. Now if TVOR does get the vote and turns out to be good does this then mean that PO is going to get the next vote for getting someone else voted off? From my point of view, you can only on day one vote for someone based on a message or by believing someone elses theory. Why would you have a theory on day 1 to vote off anyone other than those from a message unless you were a wolf. Now i am starting to worry that i am making a theory and indeed i might be seen as a wolf!?! ahhhhhh
     
  18. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    Anyone? Based on what we've been given surely for the opening day we have to go with Cude? It'll show us a lot more about the game over the next couple of days.
     
  19. simms

    simms vBookie

    The problem of not going on the messages and going on random speculation is that it always leaves the doubt that we were mistaken on the first day. Then we will always be a day behind the messages as we try to make amends for the early mistake. Better that the mistake be one that kills an innocent player than one that kills an innocent player and leaves us with an overshadowing doubt.
     
  20. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    I remember your first game of werewolf simmsy a few years back - you were cast as the Village Idiot. Today you've spoken a lot of sense. :sign15:
     
  21. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    I go off line for a couple of hours and suddenly I'm public enemy number one.

    I have been quieter than usual and believe it or not that was because I did not want to get on Cudes back, being so wrong about him last time, but in the 1st post he made when he came on he immediately tried to implement me, so much for trying to be nice ::)

    I don't know whether he is evil or not, but as was sensibly being said before certain people started trying to divert people away from that course, we should go by the facts, and if we don't lynch cude today, how will we know if he is good or evil, we won't!

    IMO the people who seem to be working hardest to divert you away from cude and onto me are Philipinehorn and Mike2006, I think one of these is probably the traitor. I want to tell you all something, but I'm not sure of the rules, I'm waiting for a reply from 352 on this point!

    So watch this space!!!

    Wife's just called me for dinner, I'll be back in about 15, in case you think I'm being too quiet ;)
     
  22. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    what on earth is going on? Why is everyone voting for TVOR?
     
  23. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    A "hunch" apparently.
     
  24. simms

    simms vBookie

    Because people don't follow probability.
     
  25. Cude>2<

    Cude>2< First Team Captain

    To be fair VoR - I didn't actually accuse you and wasn't really trying to either. I enjoyed our battle over nothing last game and was looking forward to it again - I was merely disappointed that the first person to accuse me WASN'T you.
     
  26. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    They'd rather work off guesswork than the closest thing we have to a 'fact'.
     
  27. simms

    simms vBookie

    Whilst it is unlikely it is Cude, it is even more unlikely that it is anyone else.
     
  28. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    VOR, you are hardly new to the game, and you've already made about 20 posts saying you do not know the rules, and even highlighted some asking what they mean. Any reason why you are suddenly very confused?

    If TVOR gets the vote and turns out to be good, then the seer has the chance to look at those questioning them.
    If TVOR gets the vote and turns out to be bad, the seer and us can look at those defending him.

    It gives us something to go on, as at the moment we have zilch. And voting off someone who has better odds of being good than most on here will not give us anything.

    Does anybody on here think that the wolf said somebody was good (first!) and the seer found somebody evil (second)? It defies logic.

    Cude of course could be evil (the alpha only knows his own identity, and there are 3 other wolves). But I would argue that he is less likely to be evil than the vast majority on here, as the wolf to a very high degree of possibility, chose to get rid of him. Meaning that he only has a 4/30 chance of being evil, when the rest of us have a 5/30 chance.

    The logic is voting for the person who has a low chance rather than a very low chance of being evil, and then drawing conclusions based on the findings.

    Finding Cude good will find out zilch. It will not cause confusion later in the game to not get rid of him because tomorrow we will get a post from both the witness and the wolf (if he is still alive), and they will give us stronger clues over Cudes guilt.
     
  29. Cude>2<

    Cude>2< First Team Captain

    I see what you are saying Norway - Though you can't always be led by the messages - If the Seer has a shocker and gets unlucky with his views, then you'll be fed and controlled by the Wolves and ultimately lose.
     
  30. simms

    simms vBookie

    The exact same applies if we vote off cude. We have more of a chance of getting a wolf by following the messages than we do if we randomly guess based on someone not posting as much as they usually do. However unlikely it is to be Cude, it is even unlikelier that you guessed right based off inactivity.
     
  31. Cude>2<

    Cude>2< First Team Captain

    I've had to vote earlier than I'd like. Will be revising for tomorrows exam tonight.

    I believe VoR is good, and I personally don't want either one of us to go - But I to know i'm good so have had to cast a tactical vote to save my ass.
     
  32. simms

    simms vBookie

    What is interesting is that if cude gets lynched, those who suspected tvor will instantly jump up and say haha I was right all along, as if that somehow implicates tvor for tomorrows vote. If cude dies and is innocent, that has no bearing whatsoever on tvor being guilty. Just thought i'd mention it so as to be able to quote it tomorrow when someone says it must be tvor if cude is innocent.

    Cude is still the most likely person we know at the moment to be guilty, even if that is very unlikely, everyone else remains all the more unlikelier.
     
  33. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    If Cude is lynched turns out to be innocent, then other than the problem of me being forced into a half-time substitution, then I suggest the seer sees TVOR tomorrow.
     
  34. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    No, what I am saying is that it is obvious that the first poster is the Seer.

    If we vote off Cude therefore, we are voting off who the Alpha wolf has told us to vote for.

    This gives Cude a 4/30 chance of being evil.

    Everyone else has a 5/30 chance of being evil.

    So it is illogical to vote for Cude.

    The only reason to go for TVOR was that he was one of the 5/30 people who was acting suspiciously, and that other people had talked about him.

    If he is good, you have something to go by.
    If he is bad, you have something to go by.

    But at least you have a greater chance that he is evil than Cude.
     
  35. Grrwood

    Grrwood Reservist

    Reading the posts was interesting... I'm not really sure how we can justify going for TVOR on a "hunch" - think we need to give him the benefit of the doubt on day one. I think Simms is spot on with his post - only logical vote is for cude (sorry).

    I have a rehearsal soon so will have to vote now.
     
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