Werewolf XVI: Day 1

Discussion in 'Old Games' started by 352, Jun 1, 2015.

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  1. 352

    352 Moderator

    I got you guys covered anyway...

     
  2. Norwayhornet

    Norwayhornet Squad Player

    I`m thinking 1st message is from a very canny wolf and second message is the seer ,so far no evidence to back this up ,just a gut feeling ( and my gut is getting bigger these days :()
    time for me to head home .
     
  3. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

    Define significant.
     
  4. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    I tell you what - this post makes absolute sense


    The person I thought was acting differently to previous games was indeed TVOR. He is always vocal in the games (even if his theories are mostly half-baked). Today he has made one token post about his youth team or whatever it was and that's it. That post was after the messages had been posted to boot but no comment on them at all.

    Every game I have played he has always been good...it's easy to be vocal when you are good of course, so I was wondering why he was being so shy this time around.


    The first time I was a wolf I played the ignorant village idiot card and that is exactly how he has been behaving since yesterday. Mark my words and see if I am right
     
  5. simms

    simms vBookie

    That which isn't insignificant.
     
  6. Cude>2<

    Cude>2< First Team Captain

    The more I think about this, the more I think the first message is the wolf.

    I see no benefit (I speak as a player who has been a wolf more often than a villager I think!) of a Wolf messaging first, on day 1, that early, whilst saying someone is good!? Surely that's as much use as not posting at all from a wolves perspective? The only logic I can potentially see of a Wolf going early like that on day one is cover themselves as "good".
     
  7. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Agreed.

    Scouting for blood me thinks and has shied away from taking part in the match.

    BTW there is one slot left for the starting line up.
     
  8. simms

    simms vBookie

    Interesting that otter has voted for TVOR so early in the day.
     
  9. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    I see what Moog posted early on about sticking to facts has already gone out of the window. Evil profits when we start acting on a whim, stick to what we know. As the game progresses we learn more, but we can't go voting randomly.
     
  10. simms

    simms vBookie

    I forgot how much I love this game. Barely into the peak hours of the day and people are ignoring the messages and creating biases and cultivating suspicious based on nothing.
     
  11. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    I agree that TVOR has been uncharacteristically - some might say, suspiciously - quiet. But if we're to follow only logic then, sadly, I can't see beyond voting for Cude at the moment. Sorry Cude :dismay:
     
  12. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    Exactly. If TVoR is acting suspiciously quiet, (I don't think he can get any noisier than the last game), then air those views and the seer can take a look at him tomorrow. This is a marathon, don't blow it on day 1 people.
     
  13. simms

    simms vBookie

    Lets not forget a traitor is in cahoots with the evil team and will try to change the subject and deter from the facts in the threads. In my experience from past games people need constant reminders to vote based on probability and not on far fetched theories.
     
  14. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    First timer for me, maybe I voted a touch too early! However I have a hunch that it isn't Cude but I understand that in the long run we will be lynching good guys.
     
  15. Cude>2<

    Cude>2< First Team Captain

    Okay if you follow logic Heppy and you'd like to play the game. Could you please tell me the logic of the Wolf (Assuming he's gone first) posting first, on day 1, pretty early into the game, saying that a player is good? What possible benefit would this have?
     
  16. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    Hmmm, moog isn't mayor of the village for a start. He concedes that cude is, in all probability good. I *am* sticking to the facts and btw I have an inkling who our second wolf is too. If I am right about TVOR I will say who and why.
     
  17. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    By saying last year's winner is good it may save them from a lynching and giving the wolf the satisfaction of eating last year's winner!
     
  18. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    Blow what on Day 1? If TVOR is innocent and cude is we will be lynching a good person regardless right?
     
  19. steve harrow

    steve harrow Reservist

    Count me in if you like.
     
  20. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    If we work on a hunch today and bag us an evil player, then that's the theme we'll follow for the rest of the game IMO. I don't believe Darave or Cude are evil, but unless we lynch one of them we will always be suspicious. TVoR is now firmly on the radar, so I'm saying let's do this step by step rather than acting on hunches that are based on previous games.
     
  21. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Tonight's starting XI

    GK: Cassetti's Beard

    Defence: Squibba, AshdonWFC, sonofben

    Wingbacks: WatfordTalk (RWB), steve harrow (LWB)

    Midfield: Optimistichornet, Oxhey Hornet, wfcmatt

    Strikers: cthulhu, Cude >2<

    Referee: Diamond

    KO 19:15 at the Village Stadium v L*t*n

    Pre-match entertainment: HH24
    Half-time entertainment: lynching
    Facilities: Beer kiosk managed by merchandiseman41
    Knicker supplier: WFCMoog

    ENJOY!!!
     
  22. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    That's the point - I'm not suspicious of cude. The only thing missing from the second messages is a bunch of smilies. Even the CAPS are there (he couldn't resist those at least!)

    If the first message is the wolf, he posted first just to say an innocent person is innocent? I don't believe that. On past form darave would definitely implicate himself as a means to exonerate himself so of the two I'm more suspicious of him than cude. It is still more likely that a seer (probably a newbie since he went back on the last game and viewed the most evil player as though that would even have a bearing on this game) and found him to be good.

    It's clear a wolf wouldn't name a good player as good, only name a good player as bad so the only player named as bad is cude..which to me makes him good. It's TVOR you will see.
     
  23. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    Both messages have caps. Both messages have similar styles and don't point to anyone. I can't pick up anything from the writing styles.
     
  24. simms

    simms vBookie

    Theres plenty of time to lynch whoever we want later in the game.
     
  25. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Ahhh missed out.

    I'll be a dodgy linesman who flags inconsistently whilst texting and chatting up the crowd if that's okay!

    Darave cannot be the first poster. No wolf would out himself as good first. The seer would just look at them and find them bad. Two posts about you and it is game over. This isn't saying Darave is good, but that he wouldn't have posted that he was good first on the first day.

    Cude is the obvious choice.

    However. I am going to stick my head out and say something different, which is always stupid in this game. Most of us believe that the second poster is the wolf, and therefore Cude is the only one who is least likely to be the alpha wolf. We could, hypothetically, keep Cude, and see what the Seer does tomorrow. This would give us a lot more information than killing Cude IMO. It gives each a wide plethora of options for each to prove themselves.

    If Cude is innocent for example, the seer will say he didn't view Cude. The Wolf will then also have to say he didn't view Cude I believe; otherwise it seems improbable that his message is real. In my eyes, that is far more interesting than going for somebody who has a 5/6 chance of being good.

    Personally, I think going for VOR would tell us more about the game, as it would tell us more about BOTH PO and VOR, whilst going for Cude will only tell us about Cude.

    But in this game, the safer bet is probably just to just stick to Cudeā€¦.

    Actually, thinking about it, Cude now needs to be innocent or I am really setting myself up for something!
     
  26. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    So why the rush to lynch a person everyone seems to believe is probably good?
     
  27. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team

    Someone has to make a blast on day 1 and shake things up a little

    I'm going to make the splash and vote for Diamond. Looking back through he seems very very keen that we don't deviate from the named suspects, almost leaning on us to vote for Cude. Get rid of a good one early and not to waste your vote on day 1. A good move for a wolf !

    His also almost teeing TVoR up for tomorrow, an opportunist move, encouraging the seer to waste a view tomorrow. Diamond is like Cude a very experienced player and will know how to sucker a less experienced seer into making mistakes and misjudgements. He'll know getting rid of Cude early, having very little more to go on on day 1, will only benefit his cause longer term.

    If i'm wrong then I'm sorry mate. But on day 1 you have to go with your hunch.
     
  28. With A Smile

    With A Smile First Team


    Plus he admits to being a part time referee. That for me is evil enough
     
  29. simms

    simms vBookie

    Because however unlikely it is that cude is evil, there is even less evidence that anyone else is evil, apart from darave. Darave is still more unlikely to be guilty than cude.
     
  30. nairobi hornet

    nairobi hornet Reservist

    sorry guys not going to be too active today as I have been on the high ropes at the village primary school all day and have to go back up aft6er school until 7pm. On the off chance I don't get back I will have to vote for Cude. Sorry but the only person in the firing line at the moment based on facts
     
  31. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    Steal my Tuesday's thunder why don't you!
     
  32. simms

    simms vBookie

    Squibba, why have you voted for Miked2006?
     
  33. sonofben

    sonofben Reservist

    If we lynch Cude we would be down a striker at half. Better have a good bench.
     
  34. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    Is there? Is there really less evidence it is anyone else? Maybe I have had more time to read the posts than you?

    Squibba voting for MikeD is bizarre though I agree.
     
  35. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    That's a much better reason than your previous post.
     
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