Who Stays And Who Goes?

Yep it's mental to suggest being lower league is better. Plus being a premier league team means we are all over the media. It's ace reading articles about our players eg that one about Masina the other day, always being on highlights programs etc.

Being a premier league team is brill.

 

Ace players who are a joy to watch; This is true sometimes. De Bruyne and Aguero are brilliant to watch, Liverpool are also this season. You can watch them be wonderful as they beat us 6-0, 8-0, 5-0 and all the other wallopings they've given us. Is it a joy to watch Burnley? Brighton? Villa? United? Everton? An awful lot of hype in a two team league, and those two teams routinely batter us each season. 'Cup finals' should read 'cup final' and it showed the gap between the top two and everyone else on a very public stage.

Benefits of lower league; Competitive games, for so many teams in the PL the focus is on not losing, in the Championship it is about winning. Diminished quality but increased competition. Also Tuesday night games - great to watch, but frowned upon in the PL because we can't have the poor players playing twice a week. And not having managers annually whining about the Christmas schedule that has been in place for so long. Far less diving (still some I know) in the Championship whereas it is routine and accepted in the PL now.

I've got a friend who is a Villa fan. He was gutted when they went down. And after two years in the Championship he was equally as gutted when they went back up after realising how fun the Championship is.

It is ok to disagree, but I'm not one to get hysterical about 'we've got to be in the premier league. Think of the TV money, the lights, the glamour'. I just don't buy into it. For those that do - good for them. But I'm not suckered in by it. It is boring. Funnily enough there is a whatsapp group I am in with a group of lads I used to work with and there is only one other in that group that agrees with my viewpoint. Yet two more (fans of PL teams) have said to me away from the group that they agree. The PL can hold a weird grip over some people where they can't bring themselves to admit they don't like it.

 

I’ve posted this elsewhere, but I’ll elaborate here.

Foster, Gomes, Bachmann, Janmaat, Mariappa and Holebas are all out of contract. Only Bachmann and Mariappa would probably sign new deals - Foster would go to a PL team, Gomes will surely retire, Janmaat’s too injury prone to justify the salary and Holebas is too old (Mariappa is probably too old as well, not to mention arguably not even Championship level but I think he’d be seen as a nice, cheap option).

Deulofeu, Doucoure, Sarr, Capoue and Pereyra would all be too good to keep hold of. Estupinian and Suarez have done well enough out on loan to move to La Liga sides permanently and Sema would sign permanently for Udinese.

Foulquier, Success and Penaranda would be offloaded if possible as clearly none of them are very good and are only depreciating in value. Finding suitors would be hard though, especially for the latter two.

Welbeck and Cleverley are probably earning a fair whack - if serious offers come in I think we’d sell, however given their respective appalling injury records I think we’d be stuck with them.

Chalobah, Hughes, Kabasele, Femenia and Masina are hard to call. May go, may stay. I think it’d be 2/3 stay while 3/4 leave.

Pussetto and Pedro would probably get to choose if they fancied it. If they threw a tantrum about playing in the second tier then we could sell them for what we bought them for, otherwise they’d be useful in trying to go back up.

Gray and Deeney are on silly money. Maybe useful at Championship level but not at Premier League salaries. I expect they have relegation clauses that would make them affordable for a season, however if anyone was mad enough to buy them surely we’d have to take it to balance books.

The only players I’m confident we’d want to keep that aren’t too good the second tier are Dawson, Cathcart, Quina, Dele-Bashiru, Cucho, Dahlberg and Wilmot.

 

I'm talking about ace players in our team, not opposition players.

One cup final in 4 years of being in the premier league is a sensational return. Imagine how many more we'll get into if we stay in this league.

It seems to me you have fallen for the same myths about the championship that you think others have fallen for about the premier league. The teams with the money are always the ones that are near the top. If we go down we wont be a rich team so we'll be near the bottom getting battered every week. Diving now exists at all levels of football. From the premier league right down to park football.

Be careful what you wish for. Life as a mediocre lower league team is terrible. But perhaps you are a masochist, I dont know.

 

Ace players in our team...like who, exactly? Watching Abdi in the Championship was more fun than watching Deuloufeu sulk in the Premier League.

One cup final in four years is one way to put it, or two in our entire history is another. I bet you £100 we don't win a cup in the next ten years.

Diving, as I said, happens in the Championship but far less than the PL. You can also add less TV interference on the list as well.

No need to be careful what I wish for - I've been going to Watford for long enough and I am well aware what life is like in the Championship even down the bottom so I am well aware and I find it far more enjoyable. It is ok to not like the Premier League, Sky won't come and lock you up

 

Both cup finals came when we've been in the top league. We aren't ever going to win a trophy if we are languishing in the championship like you desire.

To compare limited Abdi to Deulofeu is laughabe. Abdi never ever produced a moment of sheer elation like Deulofeu did - twice - at wembley.

I guess we just have different priorities. I crave success, you crave mediocrity. Each to their own.

 

I have to say, I got far more enjoyment out of the 2012-13 season than anything we've done in the Prem, even with the heartbreaking ending. That said, I was in China for 2014-15, 2017-18 and 2018-19 and it was far easier to watch games live there as a Prem club (I remember being giddy with excitement at being able to catch grainy streams of our Sky games in the Championship lol).

The other great thing about the Premier League is that you have a much greater chance of going on a cup run, I doubt Champo Hornets would have won even those Newcastle and QPR games, let alone Palace or Wolves. QPR in particular was a measure of how far we've come, I loved how we were the team shithousing a win against a plucky underdog, rather than cursing a Loach howler lol

 

It always makes me smile when I see people getting so defensive of the PL.

They are comparable. Two footballers. Is Deulofeu better than Abdi on his day? Absolutely. I can't remember when his last day was, but he turns it on twice a season and that is enough for some people. Don't kid yourself the Championship is just full of old cloggers. There are more Ashley Barnes type players than De Bruyne's in the Premier League, and the Championship is a similar mix of grunt and talent.

I'd love Watford to win the Championship and then be able to defend our title. Trying and get high and mighty with 'I crave success, you crave mediocrity' because I've dared to say something negative about the beloved premier league...but success for most of the premier league is avoiding failure. It's dull. Say Brentford get promoted this season, they'll have had a brilliant season winning games to then spend the next season trying their best to just not lose in the hope they stay up. It is the way the Premier League has gone now. 14 puppets to support the 'big six'...by the way, it was sky who coined them the 'big six' when their tagline of the 'top four' started wearing thin.

It is ok to enjoy the Premier League but some see through the fanfare and realise it lacks substance.

Remember a few years ago Scotland was a two team league referred to as a farmers league with ridiculous scorelines? Now the Premier League is exactly that and people are bleating on that it is the best league in the world because that is what Sky tell them. No doubt the Premier League has talented players but it lacks a competitive edge.

 

If every year was like that then that's different because it means we are winning. When you are not winning and your down the bottom it's a lot worse. Trundling down the motorway to Cardiff away on a Tuesday night knowing you will probably lose doesn't fill me with any great excitement. The football on show is generally better. The media cover is far better and I want to see us play the best teams and yes we will get heavily beaten from time to time but we will also have those great days when we turn the bigger teams over. As @Relegation Certs mentioned, we would not have got to a cup final and given ourselves a chance of silverware if we were in The Championship.
I love The Championship but I'm happier to view from afar rather than be it.

 

Mass exodus this summer REGARDLESS of which League we are in! Don't get me wrong, clearly the exit door will be much busier if we go down, but would expect us to lose a lot of players no matter which league we are in.

Deulofeu, Doucoure, Pereyra, Cleverley, Kabasele, Janmaat, Deeney, Holebas, Capoue, Sarr & Foster will all surely go if we go down. I could only see Foster, Cleverley, Deeney, Kabasele, Capoue & maybe Sarr staying if we stay up, think the rest will go regardless.

Could a team of the following be good enough to win the Championship:

Dahlberg
Kiko
Cathcart
Dawson
Masina
Hughes
Chalobah
Quina
Success
Pussetto
Pedro

Personally not sure, but I think if we do go down it won't be far off that, surely?

A lot will happen this summer, either way, Let's just hope we stay up and only lose Deulofeu, Doucoure & Pereyra. Deulofeu has been a shadow of the player he was under Gracia, Doucoure is due a move and Pereyra is absolutely useless!

 

Agree with a lot of this.

If we aren't in the Premiership then we lose out on mutliple levels. Not only do we not get to see World Class players come to the Vic to teach us a footballing lesson, I'll struggle to see my favourite teams Arsenal and Man City at least once a season. It's not the same watching them on TV.

One of the standout highlights of this run was losing in the FA Cup final to a team that cost a billion pounds to put together. As I walked out at 4-0, I turned to see our amazing fans waving their flags in defiance and saying 'we are here to stay and continue to be ****ed by all the big teams and smaller ones next season'. Inspirational.

It's unlikely we'll have another chance to lose to Man City or Liverpool at Wembley if we go down, let alone be embarrassed in front of the world and pay £100 odd quid for the experience. Money can't buy that.

I hope we stay up and continue to attract top talents like Ibarbo, that guy with the long hair, Jurado and Barcelona cast offs. And also top coaches who have achieved such lofty things as getting teams into mid table in La Liga and being an embarrassment in China.

It's hard to imagine anything else being as amazing as the EPL. And it's live too.

 

WE ARE STAYING UP.

 

Anyway, to try to answer this:
Gomes retires
Bachmann leaves to get first team football

Holebas, Janmaat, Foulquier, Navarro all leave, think we'd keep a hold of everyone else, and get Wilmot and the Perv 'back'.

Doucs obviously would leave, and I think we'd do well to keep a hold of one of Capoue, Chalobah and Hughes. Still, Quina, Dele-Bashiru, Cleverley, Wilmot plus one or two others is potentially an excellent Championship midfield

Pereyra is off regardless, and Deulofeu and Sarr would go. Success and Penaranda surely wouldn't fancy the Championship, Sema and Pussetto might do a job, though it doesn't promise to be one of our stronger areas unless we go big in the transfer market

Deeney and Gray are excellent Championship strikers so would be good short-term options. Wouldn't have thought the young South Americans would be too keen on the Championship, Suarez is attracting interest from Barcelona, but you never know, it's not as if Cucho is ripping it up in La Liga, plus I don't think the club would be keen on Joao Pedro leaving almost as soon as he arrived after all the fuss made about him

 

Regardless of what league we are in I hate to see us fail. The only difference is that for the majority of our time in the championship we were bottom half material and didn’t have the funds to buy quality players and compete with the top teams. Sounds very familiar to the position we are now in the PL except this time we have shockingly **** recruitment and money to spend. We could spend half the money we currently do and have a better side, it’s crazy.

 

Everyone saying Sarr will leave, I disagree.

We just splashed £40mil on him. No-one is signing him for less than that, unless there is a relegation clause. He might not want to stay, but unless someone coughs up £40mil+ we won’t sell him. Just my opinion.

 

The Athletic reported teams were sniffing round in January. It’s likely he does have a release clause if we go down and assuming that £40m is the maximum the transfer to us could be worth after add-ons, then someone will come along in the summer and offer that much.

If we go down he’s definitely leaving.

 

Or better still, rather than lose three of our most talented players, only lose players that are of Cleverley's calibre at best? Surely we need to keep hold of those players so we don't find ourselves in the same position next year, or worse!

 

Or 2003-05, or 2007-2010 (and that includes the season we made the play-offs although it sure didn't feel like it!). 2010-11 was quite enjoyable but the second half as often with Watford was disappointing.

 

I’m sure there was clubs sniffing around, doesn’t mean we will sell though.

If we get relegated, the Pozzo’s will want to be back in the Prem immediately. The best chance of that happening is keeping Sarr unless someone offers, at the very least, what we paid for him.

I don’t see a club offering £40mil+ if we get relegated. They will offer at most £30mil, and try to persuade him to put in a transfer request etc.

Hopefully we don’t get relegated, but if we do, I think he stays for one more season.

 

Sarr is too good for the Championship. He knows it, we know it and every club in Europe knows it. He'll probably be the first one to go if we get relegated.

 

My God, Sarr would absolutely marmalise the Championship!

 

He is too good, agreed. However, if a club doesn’t offer what we at least paid for him, he won’t be sold. We won’t take a loss on him that’s for sure. Unless there is a relegation release clause.

 

Surely the whole point of having our Italian feeder club is if we get relegated, it is a player holding pen, where we can park all our top young assets that have not reached their top sell on value, like Sarr, while we regain our rightful place in the top tier. Having cashed in on the players like Doucoure and Deulofeu, (who have increased their value since we signed them), helping to reduce the debt and maintain the balance sheet.

Relegation means playing all the lads who are not yet good enough for the Premier League. So instead of having all those young prospects out on loan across the northern hemisphere. We get a year with a whole squad out on loan in the Championship, the eighth best league in world football. All getting plenty of game time and experience. Then when we get promoted, we get the assets back from Udine. We lend them some of the battle hardened youngsters who got us up. They then get a year in Serie A and rocket up in value.

It's the Pozzo two club model. A way to make money trading players. Surely You don't think relegation will happen as an accident? its all part of the plan.

 

I agree with that.

The Sarr situation could well be similar to that of Mitrovic at Fulham, he's a relatively young player that is also clearly too good for the Championship, and many were no doubt surprised that Fulham have held on to him and rebuffed all offers so far. However, they did also spend a lot of money on him the previous summer and they'd gain more by getting promoted again than by selling him.

If they fail to get promoted this season then I'm sure he'll be off next summer, but for players still a bit more towards the start of their careers it wouldn't necessarily be the most dreadful thing to have a year trying to help the team get promoted.

For players that should be in their prime, e.g. Doucoure and Deulofeu, then a season of Championship football would be a waste, but Sarr still has plenty of time on his side.

On a related note, I reckon JP would also stay a season. Unlike Sarr, who is already excellent, it's clear JP needs a bit of time one way or another to be ready as a PL regular, so a season starting in the Champ as Delboy's replacement could be just the ticket.

 

But only for the right money. There is no point in us selling for £25m. I think he will stay unless we receive a ridiculous offer as he is one who could make us a lot of money

 

TV revenues (aka being in the PL) makes up an astronomical amount of our income so we'd need to cut the wage bill quite significantly in order to cope financially as we don't have a huge amount of money in the bank.

I'm always skeptical of websites that post wages as it's impossible to know what everyone's earning, but this list gives a good idea and I can't see any that really stick out as being drastically wrong:



- We know Doucs and GD would jump at the chance to ditch us - instantly 130k a week off the wage bill.
- We have a few players out of contract - Janmaat, Gomes, Foster, Holebas and Mariappa. Provided the option to extend their contracts isn't taken up (I'd keep Foster) then that's another 125k a week saved. Prodl and Zeegelaar have already departed for an extra 65k saved.



That leaves the above.

- Gray and Deeney's wages are of course pretty high but both have previously been prolific in the Championship and with a year left on their deals resale value would be pretty low. I'd imagine only one would stay though if we were to play 4231 (and it would be Deeney who stays). 70k a week saved.
- Cleverley is an interesting one, would be a great Championship player but his injury record combined with high wage makes retaining him a bit of a risk.
- Pereyra would want out. 45k a week saved.
- Capoue might want out, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him stay - the wage is also manageable.
- Chalobah - again he could want out to try and get his England career back on track. Again though, I think he could stay and would likely be a key part of the team.
- Hughes - has shown enough to probably get a move back to the PL but I'd try to keep him.
- Kabasele - Low enough wages that it's a sensible option to keep him, would be fantastic in the Championship. Was rumoured that some big clubs were looking at him though so hopefully the vultures won't swoop (but they probably will)
- Success - Would most likely be a solid Championship player, long term contract and low enough wages. Would keep.
- Masina - Keep if he'll stay (which I imagine would be likely)
- Cathcart - Keep.
- Kiko - Keep.
- Sarr - Loan out for a season and hope we come straight back up.
- Welbeck - If the rumours about the injury clause in his contract are true then he could be worth keeping (provided he wants to, which I feel is unlikely)
- Dawson - Depends on his wages, less than 30k a week and I'd keep.

Then of course we have the loanees and players like JP. JP is apparently on 40-50k a week - would be good to acclimatize him to English football by keeping him, and he'd get much more game-time. Would be a good idea to keep him.
Not sure on his wages but Penaranda could potentially be our Benrahma (unlikely), Wilmot would be a solid backup. Sema could do a job in the Championship. Quina would be a valuable addition.

Which, in the best case scenario leaves us with the following:



Leaves us light in the full-back and central midfield areas - possibly Navarro or Foulquier could step in to help at full-back. Maybe TDB could provide decent back-up in midfield. Then we have loanees from Udinese to call upon. I don't think things will be too bad if we go down.

 

That website I'd say is quite close to the truth and certainly gives accurate information regarding contracts lengths.

Personally, it all depends on which division we are in next season. Those fringe/squad players will suddenly become important to us if we go down. Mariappa will be needed in the Championship, as will players like Gray and probably Success. Foster, Janmaat and Mapps will need another year on their contracts if we go down. I believe we already have an option on Foster to extend, which I'm sure we'll take. The only two I'd release would be Holebas and Gomes, only because of their age really.

Like you mentioned, loaning out Sarr to a Premier League side could be a good way around a potential problem. It's unlikely we'll get the £70m we'd be looking for as a Championship side with a player who is only just breaking through, so keeping him as our player but in the shop window in the Premier League, would probably increase his value. We'd either get him back the following season if we go straight back up, or we sell at that point.

I'm resigned to losing Geri, Pereyra and Doucs, but Doucs and Bobby will probably go anyway, whichever league we are in. Not too sure about Geri if he'll stay or go if we stay up, but he'll certainly go if we are relegated of course. Foster and Hughes are a couple I think may get a move back to the Premier League, so we'll have to keep an eye on that.

This is the trouble if we do go down, we do actually have a lot of players who Premier League clubs would happily take off our hands. Not defenders of course, although Kiko and Masina may have some takers, but the rest of the squad could be up for grabs.

 

This is one of the main reasons why clubs find it much more difficult than presumed to get promoted straight back to the PL. Even with parachute payments they often can’t sustain a PL level wage bill and many of their players, especially the foreign journeyman types, will not countenance playing at the lower level and demand a move. This suits the club because it generates revenue to pay for the restructuring of the squad, but then they have a new set of players faced with competing against battle-hardened Championship clubs who have been striving for promotion for several seasons. If West Ham go down I would expect them to be particularly badly hit in this way and it would be interesting to see how much money the owners would be prepared to throw at it to try and get immediate promotion.

 

I was responding to Bubble's wish that we "only" lose those three players should we stay up, not should we go down.

Realistically I can only see Doucoure wanting to stay to get us back up, and that's not very likely.

 

I don't really understand the logic in loaning Sarr for a season were we to get relegated. Any loan fee we might receive would pale in comparison to the money we would get for coming straight back up, which would be far more likely with Sarr in the team.

Also, on the issue of retaining his value, he is still only 21 with plenty of time on his contract - a good remainder of this season, him getting us promoted again, and them him making another good start to the next PL campaign will see him have the same value at the age of 23/24 as if we'd have just loaned him out, plus we still have got good use of him.

Lastly, his value, saleability or loanability won't have deteriorated by that much should we rather wait until at least the next January window in the Champ to see what our league position is before deciding if we should do anything else with him; Fulham have still been rejecting bids for at least what they paid for Mitrovic, if not higher, since going down.

The only reason to loan him out would be if he kicked up a fuss about playing in the Championship (in which case Udinese might be an obvious choice).

 

They can shut up moaning about us if they get Sarr on loan next season!

 

Because his wages would be likely unsustainable for us in the Championship. And he won't want to play in the Championship. There's no way we'd be able to keep him (teams were already enquiring about him in January). Loaning him out would be his wages off the wage bill and then (hopefully) returning when we're (hopefully) back up.

 

You've already shown above that we could easily trim our wage bill massively while maintaining a decent Championship side, I'm sure we could afford to keep one or two of the higher earners such as Sarr for one season.

I made the point already that it's down to what he thinks about playing one season in the Champ. Obviously it wouldn't be his preference, but you don't know "he won't want to play in the Championship" - unless you've talked to him personally or got some quotes from him or his entourage on the topic? He still has time on his side and a long contract with us. It wouldn't be a career destroyer.

Just because other clubs have enquired about him doesn't mean that "there's no way we'd be able to keep him" - you seem to be repeatedly overlooking the very valid comparison I've made between Sarr and Mitrovic, whom Fulham have kept hold of despite a number of bids and against the expectations of many.

Were we to get rid of every player another club has made an offer for (more like Huddersfield, who loaned their best player Mooy to Brighton), then perhaps despite all the "hopefully"s you put in your post, we might rather end up more like them as opposed to Fulham who are in with a good shout of actually getting promoted again this season. The Championship is still a tough division with some quality players, as Sheffield Utd and Villa have demonstrated (Villa had the benefit of Grealish being a boyhood fan, but also as with Mitrovic don't forget that they eventually held off overtures from bigger clubs, ie Spurs, to keep him for another season - in which they got promoted).