Werewolf - Day Three

Discussion in 'Werewolf: The forum game' started by domthehornet, Jun 20, 2019.

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Vote to Lynch

  1. Cthulhu

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. Daft Row

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. Grrwood

    40.0%
  4. HappyHornet24

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. Horace

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. Hornetgags

    10.0%
  7. Miked2006

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. Nornironhorn

    50.0%
  9. Opti

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. Otter

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    If grrwood is good we know tomorrow that noriron is bad
     
    nornironhorn likes this.
  2. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    I'm doing no such thing. I'm laying my stall out very clearly.

    Either you or Grrwood is evil.

    Grrwood has been quiet today, but I don't imagine that is out of choice. If he were the alpha wolf surely he would be trying to defend himself? It is possible he is the 2nd wolf and just busy today.

    I also stated very clearly, that I am not placing too much emphasis on the 'their' theory. I have played as a seer, and yes I tried to leave hidden messages. I even spelled out OPTI with capital letters at the start of each sentence. However, the spelling of their is in mind a step too far. It is one of those words that people commonly misuse.

    Miked was very quick to jump to your defence, so he could be the 2nd wolf or he could be the traitor.

    By all means try to deflect attention towards me. I have been very quiet this game, but its not been at the front of my mind most of the week. I have been a quiet wolf before but I'm not sure I would try that tactic again so quickly.
     
  3. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    What about the space before the comma as well as the 'their'?
     
  4. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    And why would a seer be consistent with their space before the comma on the first line over day 1 and 2, and then suddenly change it on day 3?
     
  5. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    I am torn as analysis of both messages implicates either as being genuine when you get down to the finer details.

    Anyway I had a good think about it over lunch and I decided to ask the question to myself from a different angle.

    FACT: Yesterday before close I suggested the seer look at Grrwood and Norniron in the coming days, the seer has heeded that advice and has come up with the goods.

    IF the seer was determined to post first, they would have either seen Grrwood or Norniron; had the seer looked at Norniron and saw was good then I reckon the wolf message would have indicated a random other person. But as the if message implicates Grrwood the wolf had no choice other than to implicate Norniron.

    IF the wolf wanted to go first, I would say it would be certain they would name someone as evil. I also think it if Norniron was evil it would have been very unwise to name Grrwood as at that point the seer had the choice about who to look at much easier. There was too much risk for the wolf doing this.

    Looking at the balance of probabilities I think the Grrwood is more likely to be the wolf as the first message is more likely to have been the seer's. Also what ever happens I think it's safe to say that Norniron is not the traitor.
     
  6. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Voting is quite close somehow, with grrwood still to vote (for me).

    Just a reminder to team good if I do get lynched, daft row and opti have voted for me with no reasoning put forward.

    Also a reminder that up to two evil players know which message is correct.
     
  7. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    HH and Horace with the deciding votes then it seems.
     
  8. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    I get that you're fighting for your life, NI, but now you're doing exactly what you told me not to do earlier. I'm going to have to vote in half an hour or so as I have a 3pm appointment, followed by school run and then a riding lesson (not mine) so won't be back until around 6pm. Grrwood may be playing a clever game by staying relatively quiet (says he's at a wedding but obviously this could be an excuse) but, at the moment, I'm veering towards nornironhorn who I suspect might have been a very clever wolf so far by playing a "good" game for team good. Remember, the wolves now know each other so, until one of them is named in a message, it is easy for them to avert suspicion by "helping" team good. If I'm wrong, then apologies but we'll get Grrwood tomorrow and I would still suspect Hornetgags as the traitor - do not understand why you would vote for yourself if you're on Team Good.
     
  9. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    You could look through hundreds of posts on this site and see the same thing.

    Either way i have voted for you. As far as im concerned if you are in fact evil then I will be pushing heavily for miked to go tomorrow. If you are in fact good, then tomorrows vote is already decided.

    I'm afraid your early voting, and Miked leaping to your defence has not helped your case. There is no evidence to suggest your the seer, and Miked would have no way to know this. If your a wolf, then miked would try to protect you as either the traitor or another wolf. I think Miked is the traitor.

    So you can go today. Otherwise Grrwood can go tomorrow. Its win win either way.
     
  10. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    As per hornetgags. Bizarre and wasted vote. No point in doing that.
     
  11. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Two voters left. One of which is Grrwood who will vote for Norniron taking them to 4 votes each. Their fate is in @Horace_goes_up_north 's hands.
     
  12. What the hell?!!! When did all the voting start? We have until 7pm people!

    I'm not going to rush as I've not had nearly enough time to read everything so far. I want to hear from Grrwood if possible before voting. I know this will give me the deciding vote but I'm not putting anyone to the sword yet. Plus I like the power trip this now gives me! :)
     
  13. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    These are important lines.

    I am good, so if I get lynched, Grrwood goes tomorrow. That means two evil will survive tomorrow too.

    If you don't make the right selection tonight HH and Horace, we will lose this game.

    If anyone is absurd enough to think that the seer accidentally left a space before a comma in each of their three messages, plus incorrectly use the word 'their' in three of their messages, then they are either evil or quite frankly deserve to lose.
     
    Cthulhu likes this.
  14. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Come on Happy, you're very experienced at this game.

    Do you not think, from your many werewolf games on here, that a good seer tries to write in a consistent style? They do so, to ensure the other players recognise who they are.

    We also know that on day 1 and 2, the confirmed seer did write in a consistent style (gap before comma on first line, and their on penultimate line. This is in the exact same style as the first message today (calling Grrwood evil).

    Both yourself and Opti cannot give me a valid reason for why the seer would change their style, confusing the village.

    The seer is trying to make things obvious for the village. The alpha is the one trying to confuse.
     
  15. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Good to know you have voted based on a 'suspicion' as opposed to genuine clues. This game is won by logic, not suspicion.

    If I get lynched tonight, that leaves 4 good and 3 evil.

    Fair enough, you will lynch grrwood tomorrow, but if he is the traitor that will leave 2 wolves v 2 good.
     
  16. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    It does mean two evil will survive tomorrow, and evil will likely win in that case if Grrwood is a traitor. If Grrwood is a wolf though, the game is very much still on.

    We have both played this game long enough to know the potential outcomes, I am just surprised to see you so obviously rattled. The only way I can see you being good is if you are indeed the seer, and trying desperately to defend yourself. Are you the seer?
     
  17. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Nope, we have until 5.30pm; that's why I've voted now as leaving in 5 mins and not back until after 6pm.
    @miked2006 I may be experienced at this game but it doesn't mean I'm any good! If I'm right, then you or hornetgags should be on the seer's radar tomorrow. If I'm wrong, then I am officially rubbish at this game but at least grrwood gets it and I would still suspect Hornetgags of traitor-like behaviour.
     
  18. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Miked let me ask you a question:

    From the other side of the fence, can you see why your staunch defence of Norn is raising suspicions? Your acting an awful lot like a traitor. Other than the message analysis you have absolutely no reason to vote Grrwood over Norn.

    I will say it again, there is absolutely nothing to stop a wolf from copying a seers style. It happens very frequently, as you well know.
     
  19. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    No, I think I know who the seer is but I'm not going to name them as that would be madness as it would set them up as a target.

    Strange you'd ask that though, if I was and said I was, you know fine rightly if I survive then I would be killed by a wolf tonight...
     
  20. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    But you can't once say why a seer would change their style, specifically both things that made their style unique.

    What is your reason for voting me? Is it logic based?
     
  21. hornetgags

    hornetgags McMuff's lovechild


    If you thought I was a traitor, then you should have voted for me - I gave you a headstart when the voting was at one a piece.

    This make me a target tonight and I fully expect to be killed by a wolf - if I am then those who've said I've wasted my vote will be free of suspicion.

    If I survive and those lynched are good, then I'll be lynched tomorrow or eaten, but the suspects will be clearer because I could be good.

    If I remain untouched, the wolfs think I'm the traitor. Which I could be, but will they run the risk?
     
  22. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    If you read the above you can clearly see my reasoning, why do you keep skipping over it:
    - Named as evil
    - Early vote
    - Defended vociferously by Miked, who has no reason to defend you so loyally.
    - If Grrwood is indeed a wolf, then I would have expected him to defend himself, which he has not done.

    And the only thing you have going in your favour: the spelling of their and a misplaced full stop.

    It could be either you or grrwood. I've laid my stall out and am prepared to live with the consequences.
     
  23. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Regarding this point it would not matter a jot if you were killed tonight from the point of view of good winning. In that situation we would lose one evil player and two good players tonight. We still would have two days to get rid of the remaining two evil players, but with a new seer.
     
  24. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    To be fair to Norniron, when two players are called out evil then they are always going to vote for each other, there's no point in looking in to when they voted in this situation.

    Once Horace votes everything will be clearer.
     
  25. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    I'm a staunch defender of the logic, not of the person. The wolf can copy the seers style - they often try to copy it. But there is no reason for the seer to change their own style. The style of the seer matches message 1 today, implicating Grrwood.

    **

    Regarding me being a traitor for NI, let me remind you of the following line I gave yesterday:

    miked2006, Yesterday at 4:10 PM
    I'd be a pretty poor traitor if I identified someone who was definitely evil. I only strongly defended NI after both messages came in this morning, because of the logic above.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2019
  26. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Come of it, a misplaced full stop? That's embarrassing. It's an obvious space between the comma in the first line after the word Villagers in every single message.

    Back to your points:

    - So was Grrwood so not sure how being named as evil can allow you to decide between us
    - Early vote? I've been named, obviously I'm going to vote for the other named player
    - How do you know he isn't the witness? I could say you have defended Grrwood vociferously by trying to implicate me
    - Grrwood is at a wedding

    So are these paper thin arguments your only reasons?

    Hopefully Horace applies some logic and sees through them

    Horace: Focus on the clues left by the seer, they are blatantly obvious. A misused their in every message and a space before the comma on the first line of every message.
     
  27. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    In my opinion it would have been far too risky for a wolf to write first naming 1 of the two players I suggested last night as it would increase the chances of the seer viewing the other. So that's why I think the first message is most likely to be the seer's.
     
  28. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Are there any other examples on these threads of someone leaving a space before a comma?

    Excluding Norway (who obviously isn't/wasn't the seer) I haven't seen one example.

    Strange for something that is supposedly common and is just being tossed aside...
     
  29. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Ahhh im done arguing. We will have to agree to disagree. If you are in fact good, then I apologise sincerely. However my vote is made and I will stand by my decision until i need to apologise.
     
    Otter likes this.
  30. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    In all fairness, the Alpha has played a blinder, although I have been deeply suspicious of Norniron the balance of probabilities with the messages tipped them more in favour of Grrwood being a wolf.
     
  31. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    If I'm lynched and found out to be good, you have to be next on the list after Grrwood to be lynched.

    That's who I advise the seer to view tomorrow, followed by Daft Row, if I don't make it through the night.
     
  32. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    That comma thing gives it away. I didn’t want to raise that today hoping it could be used again tomorrow. All previous seer posts have it.

    The one calling grrwood evil has it today.

    It would be a very bad move by the seer to leave it out
     
  33. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    I’m going to stop now too.

    @Horace_goes_up_north . It is up to you. Team Good’s hopes rest on your shoulders. You have to decide which message on day 3 more closely matches these two confirmed seer messages. Good luck.

    Day 1 Seer

    Hi Villagers ,
    I had to take a random guess to begin with today as their was obviously nothing to go on. I can confirm that Cthulhu is good.
    Let's wait until we get a second message before throwing accusations.
    Your Seer

    Day 2 Seer

    Hi Villagers ,
    Again, I didn't have too much to go on this morning as the only thing I knew for sure was that Cthulhu was good.
    I decided to take the advice of some posters from yesterday and view Cassetti's Beard. I can confirm that Cassetti's Beard is good.
    I didn't view Norway as I know both wolves know each other so at the very worst he is an unlucky traitor, unless of course the alpha is playing a brave game and naming the other wolf as evil to throw us off the scent.
    Do not lynch Cthulhu or Cassetti's Beard, their both good.
    Your Seer

    Day 3

    Hi Villagers ,
    Again, I didn't have too much to go on this morning as the only thing I knew for sure was that Cthulhu was good. (Deja Vu)
    I decided to take the advice of some posters from yesterday and view Grrwood. I can confirm that Grrwood is evil.
    That brings my views to date as Cthulhu (Good), Cassetti's Beard (Good) and now Grrwood (Evil).
    We must lynch Grrwood today, their is no other option.
    Your Seer

    OR

    Hi Villagers,
    Last night was a bad night. We know that Cthulhu is good, and so was Cassetti's Beard.
    I decided to view Nornironhorn with there name coming up a few times yesterday. I can confirm Nornironhorn is bad, we must lynch them tonight.
    The wolf has named Grrwood this morning, I will view them tomorrow to confirm for everyone as until I do we just don't know if they are good or bad.
    Please lynch Nornironhorn tonight.
    Your Seer
     
  34. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    My thoughts exactly.

    Regardless of what happens tonight, the seer will have their work cut out tomorrow as the wolf now knows two links to mimic.

    To think some team good players are overlooking this is madness.
     
  35. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Get off your high horse already, different people see things in different ways.
     

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