Yes....exactly. Only 8 result changing goals in our favour for the 5 season's prior to this one. We scored no beneficial late goals last season. You have to go back to Aston Villa, where Deeney scored 2 in the 90th minute to turn a defeat into a win. Before that it was the Deeney winner at Bolton and Ighalo at Brentford. Before that you have to back a further season to an 87th minute winner against Doncaster, and a late draw at Reading. Finally we end up at the Zola play off season where we beat Peterborough 1-0 with a late goal, Huddersfield win away and the away win at Palace where we scored 2 injury time goals to win a game we were losing. I suppose you can add the Leicester play off win to that, but I consider that a little controversial as it was actually a chance for Leicester to win the game where we scored from. Of those 29 games that we've dropped points in, 17 have been at Vicarage Road. That leaves 12 away games, over 6 season, I don't consider that too exceptional as the home team tends to press at the end of a match. But to drop points in 17 home games, due to goals from the 87 minute onowards, over a 6 year period is extraordinary.
Already the argument is shifting and the statistics are telling a different story. How do we compare to our peers each season in terms of late goals conceded? Looking at the last 10 minutes of games (because there isn't any easily available comparison data for the arbitrary last three minute cut-off), in the past six seasons we've compared reasonably well apart from this season (20th out of 20th) and 2013-14 (23rd out of 24). The other seasons we've ranked: 10th best out of 20 in 2016-17 8th best out of 20 in 2015-16 7th out of 24 in 2014-15 13th out of 24 in 2012-13 So perhaps the issue is actually an inability to score enough late goals ourselves. Certainly the data would suggest that is the case. Admittedly we are comparing apples and oranges here, because my data covers the last 10 minutes of matches and Hornetboy's is the last three minutes. But unless we know how we compare to other teams in the final three minutes, it's very difficult to say what we should or shouldn't be doing.
OK hb1. I'll take those figures at face value and accept that you have tried to be objective. No objections to an 87th minute cut-off or the six seasons analysis. The 'Pozzo era' then. So what you'd now need to do to convince me (and maybe others) is to similarly quantify the goals scored and points gained column rather than simply making the unsubstantiated claim that 'we are easily the losers when it comes to late goals'. Be objective. Don't cook the books. Unless of course you've got something else planned for bank holiday Monday. We've all the time in the world here. One other thing that came out of Stevo's stats is common sense really. The figures look better in a good season (when we have a +ve goal difference) than in a negative season. This season we're currently at -16. 41 v 57. Or 1:1.39. So to show that late goals are making a disproportionately significant contribution you'd need to show something significantly beyond that ratio and beyond various margins of error. Do all of that and you'd have an objective case. B.t.w., I have absolutely no axe to grind here either way. Just that I don't want objective truth to be the casualty of a misconception. That would get us precisely nowhere. If you're right hb1, that there's something generic going on, then you've admitted to being 'baffled' and I wouldn't have a scooby either. Only UEA has come up with something even vaguely plausible.
I consider 87 minute onwards as a late goal. Maybe we should call it "a very late goal". It just shows a trend. I know people try hard to balance this out, so stretching the time to the last 10 minutes may work, but this is not what I'm debating. I'm just pointing out we fall victim to very late goals a lot.
I don't agree this is arbitrary, but I do agree it's an emotional argument. I think most fans would agree, by the 87th minute they expect the result to stay the same. If you're winning you expect to win, or if you're losing you expect to lose. There's nothing more satisfying than a last minute winner and nothing more galling then dropping two points to a last minute equaliser. The latter is what Watford do a lot. They take fans to the brink of victory, only to disappoint at the final hurdle.
We do... But the available stats would seem to suggest that everyone else does too. That's football. Unless we can demonstrate that we are, say, 15% worse than the next team then I don't really see the significance of the point. Perhaps someone should work out the data for 'very late goals' across all the teams in the division and then we'd know if this is a fact or a feeling. Comparison data shows we've been about mid-table on late goals over six years and not as bad as some. This season has been the worst and even that has been somewhat equalised out by late goals we've scored ourselves. Anyway, I've enjoyed the debate and discussion and enjoy thinking differently about the game and having my own biases challenged.
That's true too, so we conclude that there's nothing we can learn from stats. Unless Malts knows different.....
Fair enough hb1. Yes you have. Well some of it. For some reason I've got a 'lazy keyboard' and it's taking an age.
I don't think it's necessary to expand this across other teams as I don't care about the fortunes of other teams. If we had conceded a few and scored a few, and the ratio was roughly 1:1 then fine. But I've demonstrated we lose out 2/3 when a late goal is scored. Basically if there is a late goal in a Watford game, it's twice as likely the opposition will score it. Here's another stat which will surprise you. In the past 6 seasons at Vicarage Road, Watford have scored result changing late goals in only 6 matches. They have conceded result changing goals in 17 games during the same period. There are three League Cup games as well, which I've not included, which brings the total to 20!!. It's a strange anomaly. This is why I get the feeling we always screw up late on at home. This doesn't include the late near misses where we survive, but that does add to the perception.
I think that what the stats. on this thread show is that there're a load of blokes sitting around on a dreich Bank Holiday Monday with not a lot else to do.
I've gone the extra mile on this. Starting from season 2009-10. Goals scored in the 87th minute or onwards, involving Watford. Points taken: 28 Goals Scored: 54 Positive Game Changers: 17 Points Dropped: 70 Goals Conceded: 79 Negative Game Changers: 39 I find that quite staggering.
Slightly arbitrary to start the analysis in 2009-10. Surely 'the Premier League era' is all that counts. It's the Jurassic/Cretaceous cut off of football.
I've gone back this far to show the trend. The gap between positive and negative is wide over a longer period and this takes into account different, leagues, players, managers and even owners. But trend is the same. In every season I've looked at, we've dropped more points through very late goals, than we've taken.
Should be more,Stags bossing it. The barbarians are getting decidedly umpty! It won't last,but I'm enjoying it whilst I dry myself out on the coat hanger!
Excellent analysis, HB1. Prompts the q as to why? Under a particular coach or with a certain group of players you could imagine that there is a specific cause. The only constant going back to 2009 is the Vic crowd. Are we especially neurotic? And especially adept at showing our neuroticism? Is the Vic cursed?? If it is statistically valid, it is unusual.
It does feel like the crowd always lets off a vibe that we are going to mess it up. Maybe we need to start matches attacking the Rookery? Concede the late goal earlier
I would imagine at least as far as the premiership years are concerned, most teams below 6th fail to win a lot less games than they actually manage to win, so they are also probably more likely to give away points late on as opposed to winning them. If you gained more points late on than you lost wouldn’t that make you one of the good teams?
If any registered lurkers out there are holding back on posting their post-match comments because of the creeping shimmer that is hornetboy1 please don't. My heart sinketh enough...
I thought it was an exciting end to end match, which we would have won if we had anyone who can get on the end of a cross (though the crossing seemed particularly poor to me). A sickening ending yet again, you just knew that little terd was going to score. I'm a holebas fan but I can't explain that behaviour away. Utterly awful, inexplicable stuff. You don't see that sort of thing even at Sunday league football. I was impressed the players actually seemed to give a **** and kept trying right till the end. Big contrast to this time last season and credit to the manager I guess. Is it my imagination or do the players seem to like each other more nowadays too? The celebrations for pereyras goal were joyous. I think we're only 2 or 3 players away from being well ace.
Having smashed my laptop into a thousand pieces in the 92nd minute I haven't yet bothered with highlights in any way shape or form. With your comments I may now watch said goal celebrations. In a few days...
I wouldn't waste your time, I just watched MOTD and our two goals were absolutely dreadful, followed by the horrible end. It's not an enjoyable experience.
Over the ether, for too many games now, I'm just not hearing Doucoure play a pivotal role. By way of balance it was bloomin marvellous to listen to Jon Marks et al wax lyrical about Hughes and read subsequent posts and the ETG blog...
Just what is Will Hughes doing to Pereyra? Hughes certainly seems to be enjoying it....he'll be out with a groin strain for the rest of the season, no doubt.
