Maybe you're right hb1. But if it's been going on for a decade how would you explain that under all the head coaches we've had in that time? Anyway, you'd be far better at doing the detail of that analysis than me. I think it's more of a confidence thing really. At the beginning of this season we were playing with verve and confidence under a Silva sky. Then the double wammy from the Toffees happened both on the pitch and in Silva's head and we were never the same again and lost all that confidence. Now Javi's trying to pick up the pieces and grind out enough results. Again, not a big confidence booster. As for Chelsea and Everton at home. Well against Chelsea we scored three in seven minutes 84 - 90+1 after their 82nd minute equaliser. Well in five minutes really taking two goal celebrations into account. We seemed to be piqued by their equaliser and went for it gung-ho (maybe because they only had ten men) and with spectacular results. What we didn't do at all was try and 'manage the game out'. Very refreshing. And in that circumstance (scoring three ourselves) I wouldn't be particularly bothered at all that they also had one chance (that Karnezis saved). For Everton it was completely different. Game management a go-go from the 80th minute onwards led by the huge unit that is Okaka by the corner flags. Obviously under instruction. Then Holebas plays the clown again with his stupid foul-throw and Pickford (another huge unit and rather good at jumping) goes upfield and gets his head to it. I wouldn't say that was a particular failure of game management. Rather Holebas' stupidity and if Okaka hadn't led with his elbow yesterday then we'd be on 39 points right now too. What I'm saying here is that if we'd got it right at the attacking end of the pitch then we wouldn't have to have bothered about the defensive bit. You seem to be majoring on the latter.
It's the fans. We have such a nervous fanbase, anything adverse as the game comes to a conclusion and there's massive anxiety and concern transmitted from the stands. I'm not saying it doesn't happen elsewhere too. But there are some places where the reaction is much more supportive than the nerves our lot send towards the pitch.
Majoring on the latter, of course. We are not good enough to be 2 or 3 goals clear by 87 minutes, well not very often. Most games will be close going into the final few minutes. Maybe it's just me, but I find losing a good result in the final moments of a match far worse than knowing you have lost after 60 minutes. The disappointment is far greater. I just have this feeling of disappointment far too often walking away from the Vic. Knowing we blew it yet again. It doesn't matter which league we are in. We were like it when we were in the Championship. It's so predictable. Confidence is one thing, but I think it goes deeper than that. It's happened for a long time, many years. Different leagues, different players, different coaches, even different owners, but it is always the same old story. Go back as far as Malky, and you will see a trend of games where we've conceded a vital goal or two in the final minutes, especially at home. I bet the ratio is something like 5 or 6 to 1 against. For every one game where we win a draw in the last minute, there are 5 or 6 where we throw it away. Just use your own experiences. How often do we look like saving a result in the final minutes of a game as opposed to giving it away? This has cost us a Championship title, a promotion against Leeds and a playoff final in recent years. A fluke prevented it happening in a play off semi final also. I just find it all very strange as to why this keeps occurring at Vicarage Road.
I get quite fed up reading that "Watford will learn from mistakes". I wish someone from the club in their post match interview was just honest and say "Watford will continue to make the same **** ups as they've been doing all season for the foreseeable future".
Watford will continue to make the **** ups as they've been doing all season for the foreseeable future.
I can agree with much of that hb1. Especially the 60 minute/last minute sentiment. But you seem to have missed the point of my last para. That was that late 'game management' can best be achieved by playing it out in the opposition half. Keep it there and don't do anything daft. I think your last para. is rather unfair too! The Chamionship title? Voodoo man comes on pitch. Against Leeds? We had to go for a winner which always leaves you susceptible to a break. A play-off final? Extra time. Hardly that late. A play-off semi-final? Hogg-Deeney. A pen. that wasn't followed by one of the greatest moments in our club's history. So when we win at the last gasp that's just a fluke as opposed to us being endlessly culpable when we lose it. C'mon. You're being way over-critical.
As for other teams as well. It's best to remember that there is an opposition out there trying to do stuff too as opposed to it being a game of keepy-uppy. But you might be right on the 'nervous fans' bit. I start doing a 'what are the odds of them scoring from here-on-in' thing in my head as soon as we go in front. If we fall behind I don't do that at all. Just believe implicitly that we'll equalise and go on to win. I was certainly doing the former against Palarse and yesterday. Against Swansea I didn't see it coming at all.
Of course it was a fluke. A last minute penalty to Leicester to give them the aggregate win and we win the tie! An event like that will never occur again in our lifetime. Ordinarily that would have resulted in a loss, but the football gods were on our side on that occasion. Look at the stats for late goals against us over the past 10 years. It’s extremely high.
Well there'll certainly be extremely high relatively if you count all the ones against us but consider the ones where we win out as flukes not to be counted.
I reckon you could be right UEA, after all it's the fans that are the only constant factor over the years
It's genuinely tragic that you ask why you should weigh all the evidence before putting forward a conclusion. It invalidates everything you write.
Holebas just needed to Sheppard the ball out, or get his head in there. He should also have picked up Defoe as the ball was knocked on. Poor defending. Okaka is great when we are chasing a game, but not when we are defending a lead, he gives away to many free kicks, only giving the ball back to the opposition. Hughes dominated the game Realistically we didn't create any clear cut chances apart from the two goals All those moaning about Muffs tactics obviously don't remember life under Boothroyd.
There's some good stats here for goals scored/conceded at certain times in games.. http://www.soccerstats.com/timing.asp?league=england This season we have scored the third highest amount of goals in the last 10 mins of games (11) after the Manchester clubs and level with Spurs & Arsenal.. and conceded the most (15) Last season we scored 5 & conceded 10 .. http://www.soccerstats.com/timing.asp?league=england_2017 In 15/16 we had a positive goal difference in the last 10 mins of 9-8 http://www.soccerstats.com/timing.asp?league=england_2016 In our last season in the Championship we scored 17 goals in the last 10 and let in 9.. http://www.soccerstats.com/timing.asp?league=england2_2015 as you might expect from a club who finished 2nd. If you break that down further and look at goals in the 90th minute or later, this season we have gained points from scoring late in 5 games.. Liverpool (D) Swansea (W) WBA (W) Arsenal (W) & Saints (D).. plus Chelsea home when already winning. We have lost points by conceding late in 4 games.. Everton (L) Palace (L) Swansea (L) and AFCB (D) plus Leicester away while already trailing. So overall this season we have scored goals late on in 6 games and conceded in 5. Gaining 8 points in the process and losing 7 points.
Why don't we automatically assume that everything here is the opinion of the poster and has not necessarily been approved by a higher authority? That would save us all time
One goal was a fluke, that's all. Not all of them. Can you genuinely not understand the concept, that Leicester being given a last minute penalty against us was a chance for them to score and win the game? It wasn't an assist to us winning the game, even though it turned out that way. That's why I call it a fluke. I do not consider any other late goals a fluke though, even though you'd like to spin it that way for some unknown reason. My only point is we give away far too many late goals and late chances in games, especially at Vicarage Road. Over the past ten years it's happened far too often.
Not sure which West Brom game you are referring to here. We won at home, but the goal was certainly not last minute. The away game was a last minute goal, but that ended as a draw. From memory, I know Everton, Leicester, Man City, Stoke, Huddersfield and Chelsea at home, all had great chances to score with virtually the last kick. It's this type of stat that doesn't get recorded. Ok only the Everton and Leicester games would have been result changing, but I don't recall Watford having great chances to score in the final minute when we are chasing a result. There are exceptions to this, but it's not quite the regularity as it appears to be against us.
Yes, indeed, except, to be fair, that's not really actually the meaning that he is expressing at all.
Yes sorry my bad.. West Brom away should have been a draw not win and just the one point gained. So 7 points gained but i made another mistake thinking Palace scored twice on 90 minutes or after but it was an 89th minute equaliser. So that's 5 points lost. As for chances near the end of games.. no, no one is going to give stats for that but goals scored or conceded should reflect it.
Less relevant, I would think, as these would be the stats of small numbers, and therefore less reliable as to patterns.
With a couple of mistakes. Shame on me As for 'post Javi'.. Chelsea scored one in the last 10.. but we scored 3. Salah scored one and then there was Saturday.
Karnesis - 6, looked comfortable, couple of nice looking saves that led to opposition chances. Misses home. Holebas - 8, likes LaBron James and getting caught in the rain. Nice guy off the pitch apparently. Prodl - 6, looks confused at times as in not sure where he is. Needs Google Maps app. Mariappa - 7, consistent. Kicks ball to the opposition a lot. Always hugs Deeney first when we score. Janmaat - 6, is Dutch. Has an oven. Make your own conclusion. Hughes - 8, better than Gascoigne and Devon White. Hopefully next to fight Anthony Joshua in December. Doucoure - 5, gave ball away which seemed weird as the song says different. Had Liverpool shin pads on and answered phone to Klopp during game. Disappointing. Capoue - 9, stunning new hair style compliments his skill. Hates getting the train as they get 'le busy'. Femenia - 3, scored flukey goal. Didn't celebrate properly. A disgrace. Pereyra - 5, scored flukey goal, fell asleep on pitch immediately after. Favourite movie is 'Cocoon'. Deeney - 9, MOTM. Neat and tidy. Arranged food for the journey to Cardiff so he didn't have to queue when he got there. Richarlison - 8, needs a break after 53 consecutive months of playing. Okaka - 7, big battering ram. Silly hair. Did well for the goal. Cathcart - 4, more like 'carthorse', why are we signing players from Blackpool ffs? Enjoys travel and using the Internet.
My point hb1 is that as soon as you start calling one goal a fluke then your analysis moves from objectivity to subjectivity. Anyway, it wasn't that much of a fluke. Brentford crashed a pen. against the crossbar and lost to a Doncaster breakaway in remarkably similar last-minute circumstances just 15 days earlier. Doncaster became champions and Brentford were relegated to a play-off place. Stevohorn has now provided an interesting set of objective stats. which somewhat refute your claims. So you now want to move to 'chances you remember the opposition having had'. Subjective again. And bearing a direct correlation to the goals they've scored anyway as Stevo has pointed out. It seems that you're so desperate to believe your contention that you'll clutch at anything subjective in an attempt to back it up. That's called bad science hb1. Rather more like religion really. And you've got form. You've done the same thing with ref's decisions before.
This is very easy to prove as results are there for all to see. I've gone back over the past 6 seasons, using the 87th minute as my cut off point. During this time we've conceded a staggering 53 goals and dropped 46 points. I don't know why you are so eager to change historical fact, but this is the truth of the matter. Of course we've also scored late goals in that time, but we are easily the losers when it comes to late goals.
That's some very impressive, but selective, working-out. We've also scored goals in the 87th minute or later in that time – so we haven't lost 46 points over that time. We've lost some points and gained some others. I would suggest that the profit/loss of late goals scored v goals conceded is much more relevant. For example, this season, using the 87th minute as your cut-off, the profit/loss is: Liverpool H – Britos 90+3 - gained one point Swansea A – Richarlison 90 - gained two points WBA A – Richarlison 90+5 - gained one point Arsenal H – Cleverly 90+2 - gained two points Southampton H - Doucouré 90 - gained one point Chelsea H - Deulofeu 88, Pereyra 90+1 - no change, because Janmaat had scored just before Chelsea A - two goals conceded, 87 and 90+1 - lost one point Everton A - 90+1 - lost one point Palace A - 89 and 90+2 - lost three points Huddersfield H 89 - no change Swansea H 86 and 90 - lost three points Leicester A 90+1 - no change Bournemouth H 90+2 lost two points So, over the course of the season, late goals scored and conceded have led to a cost of three points overall. I don't think you can really look at goals conceded in isolation. Well, you can, but it gives a very distorted picture. As they say, you can use stats to prove anything. And even these stats I've produced above only show a bit of the picture. But it's a bit daft to take into account only goals conceded because if you do that we've lost every game in which the opposition have scored since football began and that isn't a way to appraise anything. Far better, I'd have thought, to look at how we stack up compared to other teams in our division. These are the number of goals conceded in the last 10 minutes (plus injury time) in league fixtures, plus where that ranks us in the division over the past seven seasons. This season so far – 15 late goals let in (20th out of 20) – the worst in the division this season 2016-17 – 10 (12th out of 20) – not bad considering the team finished 17th in the PL 2015-16 – 8 (joint 8th out of 20) – better than expected considering the final league position 2014-15 – 9 (joint 7th out of 24) – worse than might be expected, considering the team was 2nd 2013-14 – 16 (23rd out of 24) – a real shocker when it comes to conceding late goals 2012-13 – 13 (joint 13th out of 24) – relatively high considering the team reached the play-offs 2011-12 – 14 (joint 18th out of 24) However, these figures don't take into account how many points the late goals cost us.
I think an 87th minute is a fair cut off point. On average that usually means the final 7 or 8 minutes of a game if you include injury time. If you want to add the goals we've scored over the past 6 seasons it's 41, but this is an important factor, a lot of our late goals are not result changing. We've only picked up 23 points from late goals over the past 6 seasons. To add clarity, we have had 13 result changing games where we've benefitted from a late goal over the past 6 seasons. In contrast, there have been 29 matches were results have gone against us over the same period. This is pretty conclusive as far as I'm concerned. Since 2012-13 Scored: 41 Conceded: 53 Points gained: 23 Points dropped: 46 points Result changing games for: 13 Result changing games against: 29 So over the past 6 seasons you can see we've dropped twice as many points as we've gained, and lost out on over twice as many games. I believe if I stretched this over a longer period, back to Malky's time, then the gap will be even wider.
All this nonsense written about late conceded goals and poor defensive displays after every f***ing game, but never a single mention of the chances we waste during every game and especially in this game where the game should have been DEAD long before the 87th bl**dy minute. No mention about Pereyra's absolute inability to beat a man or cross a ball, no mention of Holebas's pathetic dead balls, no mention of Janmaats woeful crosses, (and lack of), no mention of lack of communication between Deeney and Okaka.
Can that be right? Only we've had 5 this season so far.. meaning we've had just 8 spread over the previous 5 seasons?
It's absolutely fine, but it's also arbitrary. I mean, if we're evaluating the quality of the defending, why is there not the same focus on goals conceded at the end of the first half? Or goals conceded between the 60th and 64th minutes? The game is played over 90+ minutes not just the last three. Conceding late goals is not *necessarily* an indicator of poor defending. It *might* be an indicator of poor concentration. It might be an indicator of any number of things, but the statistics will struggle to actually prove the case, especially if we're only looking at one side of the equation (ie, goals against). But really, it's an emotional argument. As GT once said, 'If you score two in the first ten minutes and the game ends 2-0, the crowd goes home slightly disappointed there weren't more goals. If you win 2-0, with two goals in the last ten minutes, everyone is "up" when they leave the ground. But in both cases you get two points.' [This quote is from when there were two points for a win.] Late goals feel worse and therefore they feel more significant. Statistically a goal that costs you the game is as important if it's scored in the 61st minute as the 89th. However, it's interesting to see we're so far in deficit when it comes to goals conceded after the interesting but entirely arbitrary 87th-minute mark over the course of six seasons. The past two seasons in the Premier League, we've actually performed very well (when judged against our peers) in terms of conceding late goals. This season has been a shocker. So over time, the stats actually weaken the argument not strengthen it.
