The run in

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by hornetboy1, Jan 22, 2020.

  1. BusheyOrn

    BusheyOrn Reservist

    I hope those matches will be with crowds as they will be tension filled crackers! Well maybe not Newcastle!
    Leighton Buzzer likes this.
  2. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Yeah, that's a brutal set of three alright.
  3. lowerrous

    lowerrous Squad Player

    You can all thank me for Villa's loss tonight (then blame me for ours at the weekend :oops: ).
  4. lowerrous

    lowerrous Squad Player

    Good idea! Maybe it'll balance out my removing Vardy.
  5. It's easy to forget that we still need to play 3 of the top 4 (plus arsenal who seem to be finding their feet). Brighton only play 2 of the top 4. Their last 3 games are Southampton Newcastle and Burnley. Arguably an easier run in than us.
  6. Hornpete

    Hornpete Squad Player

    Said this in December, way more interesting than being safe by Jan and then going through the motions.
  7. Harrybassetthater

    Harrybassetthater Academy Graduate

    Got a feeling Dean Smith will be sacked this week and that might give Villa a chance. We have to capitalise on our 5 remaining home games.
  8. zztop

    zztop Eurovision Winner 2015

    Too much time on my hands this morning.

    But based on (only) the current positions of each team's opponents with one point per current league position (most is better), Spam have the easiest run in (102), then Norwich (99), then Watford (91), and the Villa (77) but they have an extra game v Sheff Utd, then Brighton (77), then Muff (74) with the most difficult run in (on paper).

    Daft exercise really o_O
    EB Hornet likes this.
  9. Hornet77

    Hornet77 Academy Graduate

    I also have too much time on my hands, so I thought I'd produce the complete run-in. This helps to put into context what the games mean to teams not under threat of relegation.

    BigRossLittleRoss likes this.
  10. After the start we had, I can't see us finishing on 91 points, but I hope you're right :).
  11. leighton buzzard horn

    leighton buzzard horn Squad Player

    Our home games in April provide us with the perfect opportunity to pick up two or three wins. If we do we will stay up. If we don't get the wins then we don't deserve to stay up.

    Smith will go soon - a well timed new manager influence could prove crucial to Villa. Bournemouth will get out of it. I still think it'll be us and Brighton to join Norwich.
  12. I still think we are about 50/50 but every passing game is getting more vital to win. If we are still stride for stride with 2 games to go vs MC & arsenal, we've effectively had it.
  13. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    I agree with that. We've got by far the hardest final two games out of all the other relegation contenders. But are we likely to be 7 points clear over the next 7 matches? That's going to be tough.

    For the record, the final two matches for the other relegation candidates are:-

    Brighton - Newcastle home, Burnley away
    West Ham - Man Utd away, Villa home (which could be a loser goes down match)
    Bournemouth - Southampton home, Everton away
    Villa - Arsenal home, West Ham away
    Norwich - Burnley home, Man City away

    Looking at that, we may not need to be 7 points clear (that will obviously mean mathematical survival), but I think all those sides around us are capable of picking up at least 3 points from their final two games, whereas we are very unlikely to do so. Having said that, if we are 5 points clear with just two to play, I think we'll probably be ok.

    That West Ham v Villa game is very intriguing. Basically if we're 5 points clear of these two, with two to play, then they both cannot mathematically overtake us. Assuming Norwich will be gone by then, then it's only Bournemouth or Brighton to be concerned about. Get 7 points clear of either one of these two and 5 clear of Villa and West Ham, then we'll be mathematically safe with two to play.
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2020
  14. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    Will these games be played?

    Might be important to stay above the bottom 3 this weekend!
  15. onion8837

    onion8837 Reservist

    Neil Lennon wants the Scottish Premiership to be decided by points per game average....

    If that was applied to the Prem we would stay up above Villa by 0.92 to 0.89

    I imagine they will do something more complicated than that like a weighted average to reflect opposition played to date

  16. leighton buzzard horn

    leighton buzzard horn Squad Player

    Finish it completely or void it completely. Points averages, extending the size of leagues etc is ridiculous. If it can’t be finished in its entirety then scrap it.
  17. Carpster

    Carpster Reservist

    I wouldn't be to worried if we went into the Arsenal game needing a result. What worries me is effin up those home games in April. If played obviously.
    leighton buzzard horn likes this.
  18. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! First Year Pro

    Hopefully Geri will be back for the last 10 games
    Carpster likes this.
  19. Happy bunny

    Happy bunny Cheered up a bit

    Weighted according to average gate size too, obviously.
  20. Hornet77

    Hornet77 Academy Graduate

    Time to bump this thread
    reids and brumhorn like this.
  21. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    Why are you bumping old stuff? This was ages ago. We're now in June......don't you know the season ended in early May?
    Otter likes this.
  22. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    I've never even heard of half these teams. What's a 'Watford'?
  23. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    I know...Wham are 16th and George Michael died over 3 years ago go!!
  24. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    I didn't realise that Villa and West Ham met on the final day. I'd love it if a draw relegates them both.
    Robert Peel likes this.
  25. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    I agree.
  26. It's not good news. Whoever needs the points will get them. The chances of them both needing points is very slim.
  27. Our season hinges on Sarr remaining fit, if he plays all 9 games I can see 4 wins
  28. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    I know it's not much to show for a season but whenever I see that single 'L' any of Liverpool's summary for this years league results it always cheers me up.
    sydney_horn, Otter and Diamond like this.
  29. Hornet77

    Hornet77 Academy Graduate

    It's that result and being there to witness it that has kept me going and optimistic for the return.
    Bwood_Horn likes this.
  30. Moosegasm

    Moosegasm First Year Pro

    If we don't hit the ground running we're fooked
  31. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    This also applies to mid table clashes in my opinion. With the likelihood of a dent in clubs' incomes next season because of no ticket sales each place climbed in the table would mitigate it somewhat.
  32. Ágætis Byrjun

    Ágætis Byrjun Reservist

    I can't see why any of the mid-table sides will treat this like anything more than a set of training matches.

    Take the Bundesliga. Freiburg, Koln, Frankfurt, and especially Schalke just don't give a ****.

    Whoever plays Newcastle, Palace, Everton, Southampton or Burnley have hit the jackpot.
    The undeniable truth likes this.
  33. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Does the Bundesliga payout more per final position like the Premier League does?
  34. Ágætis Byrjun

    Ágætis Byrjun Reservist

    Not sure, they have a weird system with historical league positions... But I doubt any players are motivated by that when their remit was to avoid relegation.
  35. simpleMASH

    simpleMASH Reservist

    With so many unknowns I couldn’t begin to predict what may happen. I don’t think any team has a run-in that’s especially harder or easier than anyone else’s. Only thing that’s annoying is I had it in my mind that Bournemouth had a bitch of a schedule to finish the season but actually it’s not that bad. They may not be guaranteed relegation after all. A pity.

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