The Great Escape

At the moment there are posts of teams in very poor form.

Brighton, Bournemouth, Norwich, Villa, West Ham are only really picking up wins when they play each other now.

I’m sure a couple of them will pick up form at some point. I’d assume West Ham will get rid of Pellegrini soon if they don’t pull away.

if the players just keep on applying themselves as they have, then it is fully in our hands.

 

Reading a couple of posts from their forum though has made me a bit hopeful, because they say their squad isn't very good so it seems sacking Pellegrini would not spark a massive improvement. I imagine there isn't much quality-wise between our squads, as reflected in where the respective clubs finished last season.

They're still at worst outsiders as their fate is still in their own hands and they're not adrift like we were when Pearson took over, but you never know...

 

I guess we'll soon find out, as Pellegrini has just been sacked.

 

I'd envisage mega bucks will be thrown in the direction of Allardyce

 

Would he go back or Moyes, fancy a couple of quid on slither.


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Everton were 1 point above the relegation places when they sacked Silva. Tonight they are in 10th which just shows how quickly it can all change. So close in the midfield of the table that 9th or 10th downwards could end up in a relegation fight.

Just remember, the Pozzo's don't do relegation!

 

You beat me to it!

 

Liked for use of the word "envisage" - not the horrible "envision"!

 

So it's just past the halfway point and the table is already beginning to take shape. The only surprise packages in both senses are Sheffield United and Arsenal (I wouldn't include the notoriously erratic West Ham, who can finish anywhere from 7th to 20th, and even after a good year, are always a run of bad results or a poor transfer window from having a terrible season).

- Liverpool have already got the title bar a mighty collapse on their part and/or an incredible run by Man City
- Man City will qualify for the Champions League, the other teams in the top six will finish anywhere from 3rd to 6th
- If it goes down to 7th either Wolves or Arsenal will get the last European spot, 8th-11th won't qualify but won't go down either
- All the teams from 13th downwards will be in the mix, but I think Norwich are already gone.

This does make it easier in terms of assessing our chances, because we are no longer pinning our vague hopes on teams getting involved that are either in false positions (Everton) or the type that many assume will slide down the table but are just too solid and close-knit for that to happen, however limited their players look on paper (Sheff Utd).

And although I ruled them out just a couple of weeks ago, after today's result against Man Utd, I think Burnley will be in the scrap. Why them you may ask, and not teams that are just above them by goal difference or a point? Well, for me at least, there's just nothing to suggest on the basis of the calibre of their players, results in the last two seasons, their manner of getting results that they'll get sucked in. Arsenal may be having a terrible season but they play an inconsistent Chelsea tomorrow and are more likely to improve than get worse. As for Burnley, they have a number of fundamental flaws that may mean a tough season ahead - like us, their gameplan is heavily dependent on them getting the first goal - they have only picked up two points when behind, at fellow strugglers Villa and Brighton. But whereas their defence seems to be getting worse, ours has improved a lot. They also can't beat and can barely draw against anyone half-decent - they just have a draw at Wolves this season vs the good teams (I don't count Everton because Slither was in charge when Burnley beat them) - at least we've beaten Man Utd, and got draws vs Arsenal, Spurs, Sheff Utd home and away and Palace.

 

Shows how far adrift we were that 7 points from 3 games still leaves us 3/4 points from safety (depending what West Ham achieve in the game in hand against Liverpool.

 

In the words of Paul Daniels: “Not a lot!”

 

This is why it was so important to put together a run of consecutive wins. We still need back-to-back wins to finally put us in a position where we should go on and stay up.

Beat Wolves and Bournemouth and we'll stay up I'll be certain of it.

 

Who is potentially finishing below us?

Obvious candidates:

Villa - 3 goals worse than us. Enough said.

Bournemouth - injuries aplenty

Norwich - playing well but leaking goals

And maybe:

West Ham - rather depends who they appoint now

Southampton - looking better recently and Ings fit and scoring


Hoping we keep momentum v Wolves but they're on a good run and worry me

 

Really don't see us beating Wolves

4 points from the next two would be a very solid return IMO

Fingers crossed Danny Ings' leg falls off as well

 

Wolves playing Liverpool today. Just gotta hope they have a mentally draining game that takes a lot out of them and we hit them early.

 

I don't think Southampton matter anymore

 

This is why the turnaround had to happen before xmas. The rest of the table does not stand still. If a good run is getting 10 points in 6 games, you'll not close a 10 point gap on other teams as they will pick up a few points in those games as well.

You are wrong, they have had 3 wins v us, norwich and villa. Plus the chelsea win which was a massive bonus for them but I think the wheels are coming off lampards wagon. Thats 12 points in recent weeks, but they are only 6 above us and still in the mud.

 

I don't think Brighton, Burnley or Newcastle are safe yet.

 

Which would give us s better chance still. If we keep winning.

 

We'll not beat wolves, they’re just too good, they’ve lost 3 games all season. I’d take a loss v them if it was followed up with a win against Bournemouth. Spurs aren’t great at all so I reckon a draw against them is realistic, followed by another win against Villa. That would be another 7 points in 4 games again. which is a more than high enough ratio.

 

Wolves resting their key players today against Liverpool

 

Fresh Jiminez and Traore to bend us over. Feck.

 

Hope we stuff the mask wearing ****s

 

Great.....it's a lot more satisfying beating their full strength team.

 

Few others getting dragged into it at just the right time. We've had our bad patch, now they can have theirs.

If we can replicate a similar combative performance + the 3 points at Wolves, that will tip the balance in my mind that we have enough quality & confidence to achieve safety.

 

Or Arsenal.

 

West Ham have re-appointed Moyes, hopefully their 'QSF' moment

 

Well. I was still reasonably confident even when they sacked Pellegrini, because if he can't keep that team out of relegation danger, then who can they attract at this stage of the season who can? And there have been a few cases of teams who sack their manager mid-season and get worse rather than improve and go down (West Brom with Pardew is a case in point).

Moyes' record last time round (his first game being when we outclassed them at the Vic and they were chanting "Sack the board") was 33 points from 27 games with no discernible improvement in their defence (always their Achilles heel) - the equivalent would put West Ham on 42 points, same as what they finished up with in 2017/18, hardly something to inspire confidence from their fans.

 

It could keep them up, but it’s difficult to see it as a long term solution.

 

It's a fine margin though, anything less and it's pretty likely they'll go down, especially if they lose to us.

 

West Ham have given us a chance here.

If the West Ham players can't be inspired by a PL winning manager, I hardly think the return of recently-sacked Moyes will spark a revolution.

 

Posted this is the “Do we have a chance whatsoever thread” on 2nd December.

Putting it here since this one has taken over

We need to win at least 10 of the last 24 games

Crystal Palace H W D
Man Utd H W W
Sheff Utd A W D
Villa H W W
Wolves H W
Bournemouth A W
Villa A W
Everton H W
Brighton A W
Palace A W
Burnley A W
Southampton H W
Norwich H W
Newcastle H W
West Ham A W

In my opinion there is 15 winnable games left. With our squad and the right appointment we can survive. It’s all about the right appointment.

Updating what we got in bold.

So far we have won 2 and drawn 2 out of, what I would consider, our last remaining winnable games.

11 winnable games left of which we need to at least 7.

 

Just for devils advocate....

If our players can’t be inspired by a Europa League winning manager, would you have expected them to have bought into Big Nige’s ways?

 

Winning the Europa League sounds good, but it's severely devalued when you realise they only had to beat Fulham in order to do it.