The Final Games

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by hornetboy1, Mar 21, 2021.

  1. Carpster

    Carpster Squad Player

    The big Birmingham defenders are going to leave a few on Toney early on, infact most of their players are quite robust in the challenge and will be well up for the challenge tonight. What I'm encouraged about is Brentford always give the opposition a chance with the way they play out of defence, added to the way Bowyer has got them on the front foot and pressing is going to unsettle Brentford.
     
  2. Siohmy

    Siohmy Reservist

    I think the reason some are a bit nervous is that the division is so mediocre that a team like Brentford, or even Bournemouth, are capable of winning all their remaining games as their respective run ins do not appear too bad. Now fortunately this is not possible because they play each other but I think we’d all agree that whilst unlikely, it would not be beyond the realms of possibility that they put that sort of run together. Bournemouth can still get to 86 points which, given their uptick in form recently, wouldn’t be that much of a stretch. Again, reasonably unlikely though.

    The only reason there is any doubt to be honest is that we have to play Brentford at their place. Take that fixture out of the equation and everyone would be far more relaxed.

    As for the similarities with last season. I can see that. Scrambling results which made us think (hope) the job was done. I hope the team don’t approach the Reading game in a similar timid way to Sheff Wed/Boro. Go at them with a high tempo. They must not go back into their shell again.


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  3. ITK platypus

    ITK platypus Reservist

    Whether that is more true than for us than any other club is unclear, no club is successful every season.

    It's also irrelevant what has happened in past years with different players anyway. It has no bearing.
     
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  4. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    I think that actually helps us as destiny is very much in our own hands. We can't do anything about their game tonight except hope Birmingham do a job on them. When we play them we can influence the outcome. Having said that I would be delighted to be seven points clear when we play them!
     
  5. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    I didn't think this could be possible after our draw yesterday, but we could still be promoted at Luton, but it would take a bizarre sequence of results for it to happen. But, for fun, here's how it could be achieved.

    Brentford
    6th Apr Birmingham (h) L, 10th Apr Preston (a) L, 17th Apr Millwall (h) L = maximum points 84

    Swansea
    10th April Millwall (h), 13th Apr Sheff Wed (a), 17th Wycombe (h). Two defeats from those three would mean 84 points maximum

    Barnsley
    10th April Boro (h). (next game is Coventry on 18th Apr). So if they fail to beat Middlesbrough next week, they could only get 83 or 84 points (depending on a draw or defeat)

    Bournemouth
    10th Apr Coventry (h), 13th Apr Huddersfield (a), 17th Aprl Norwich (a). Fail to win all three, then they'll be under 84 points.

    Watford
    9th Apr Reading (h), 17th Apr Luton (a). If we win both we'll be on 85 points and promoted.
     
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  6. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    Think we're a different team since Ivic left, so let's look at who we've played in the top 10 away since Xisco took over:

    Swansea 2-1 Watford
    Stoke (7th when we played them) 1-2 Watford
    Bournemouth 1-0 Watford
    Cardiff 1-2 Watford
    Boro 1-1 Watford

    7 points from 4 games, 1.75 PPG.

    Plus Preston were level on points with 9th when we beat them 1-0 away, so you could say 10 points from 5 games (2 PPG) if you're feeling super positive!
     
  7. Ágætis Byrjun

    Ágætis Byrjun Reservist

    Stop it! I'm trying to temper all expectations!

    We're a good side and really should win or draw every match in this division.

    But after the Leeds (Bonham incident), Palace at Wembley, Nuhiu, Palace at Wembley again, Pereyra's miss against Man City and relegation from the jaws of safety... these Pozzo times build you up and then knock you down.
     
  8. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    If we were worried about Swansea and Brentford why are we not worried about Barnsley. They are storming up the league unnoticed largely and are only 1 point behind Swansea and Brentford as things stand.
    I am more concerned about them than I am Swansea.
     
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  9. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    I guess for the same reason we’re worried about ourselves, they’ve been on an incredible run to get to 1 point behind them, in the same way we have to get to where we are. Just as our run was always going to end, the longer theirs goes on the more likely it will too.
     
  10. Siohmy

    Siohmy Reservist

    Well, 1 point further back and same number of games played probably explains it. Even if they win them all they max out at 86. I genuinely can see one of the teams doing a W5 D1 sort of run so I do think we’ll need something like 86-87 points. Sooner we get there the better!

    Edit: For what it’s worth I think we secure promotion at home to Millwall.

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  11. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Its making less grammar mistake's thats important

    Just remember: if we were to slump to relegation form of just 1 point per game until the end, Brentford would have to hit title-winning form of 2 points per game in their remaining 8 to catch us (goal difference notwithstanding).
     
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  12. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    As someone has already said, it's more likely that Brentford & Swansea won't get the points to catch us than us getting the points to pull away from them.

    However which ever way it goes as long as we stay ahead who the **** cares as long as we get promoted :cool:
     
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  13. YellowKicks

    YellowKicks Squad Player

    Brentford, once they have all their remaining players back, are more than capable of winning the majority of their remaining games. They are a very good team who have have had an incredible patch of bad luck. We are a slightly less good team (imo) who have been on an incredible patch of good luck. I really wouldn't be surprised to see them take that second spot. That's not saying that we're suddenly a **** team who haven't been an amazing run of form, it's a realistic look at what is quite possibly the hardest fixture list you could engineer if you wanted to derail a team. We were four points off Hull in 12/13 with just two games to go and should have done it!

    We have the 5th, 6th and 7th best away teams in the league coming to us, and we have to go the top 2 and our biggest rivals for the first time in 15 years. Our biggest hope is that Brentford continue to get seriously unlucky but I can't see it.
     
  14. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    I get where you're coming from with the teams with decent away records but they are playing a team with the best home record in the country. As for the scum game, no fans means no derby. Norwich and Brentford away are tough though but we can certainly get something from them. I think we have enough about us to get promoted (first time that I've actually felt like that) but if Swansea and Brentford want to keep losing/drawing then I'm good with that!
     
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  15. NathWFC

    NathWFC First Team

    The maximum Brentford can achieve now is 93 points, if they suddenly go from where they've been at - looking poor and getting terrible results against some of the weaker sides in the league - to suddenly outdoing even our recent form and winning 8 on the spin, including against us and Bournemouth. I don't agree they've had much bad luck either, they've looked pretty terrible overall.

    I am the ultimate pessimist but the likelihood of them suddenly hitting form anything like that seems highly unlikely. Even if they get some excellent form going and say win six, draw one and lose one in the next eight games they'd only get to 89 points, which means we'd need three wins and a couple of draws from our final 6, possibly only one draw depending on goal difference.
     
  16. LeedsOrn

    LeedsOrn First Year Pro

    Yes but when will they have all of their players back? Doesn't look like Henry or Dasilva or on the verge of returning, and now Dalsgaard is out too. Henry and Dasilva are crucial to Brentford playing fluently, and both were pivotal figures in their 21 game unbeaten run. Without them, Brentford are a considerably worse team. I was listening to a Brentford podcast with Brentford fan-analyst David Anderson and Watford Buzz podcaster Jordan Wiemer yesterday and Anderson seemed to think that Brentford's hopes were all but over - it was a good listen. I'd recommend.

    I'm not sure (and I've said this on a few threads in various ways) that much importance should be placed on the different fixture lists. The Championship is really such a competitive and unpredictable league that few fixtures are considerably harder than others. Maybe playing Norwich, Brentford, us and to some degree Bournemouth or Barnsley are tricky games, but after that is it really so much trickier playing Swansea (on the form they're on) at home than Bristol City away as per the two sides' fixtures on the last day of the season. Or Reading at Home versus Preston away (who just got 4 points versus Norwich and Swansea) as per this weekend. This isn't the Premier League where the gulf between playing Man City and playing Newcastle or Palace of Sheff Utd etc. is so vast, and that dynamic is exacerbated further by the fatigue now felt in this condensed season. That fatigue is probably felt more by our rivals who have more players to have played 3000+ minutes than us and may partially explain Swansea's drop-off.

    As for us having enjoyed "an incredible amount of good luck" and Brentford enduring "an incredible patch of bad luck," can I ask what you're basing it on? Is that based on xG? Infogol does have Brentford with the highest xGD and the fewest xG conceded, but says the 'expected table' would have us top, with Brentford 2nd and Norwich 3rd. https://www.infogol.net/en/leagues/english-football-league-championship-table-2020-21/264. We may have endured some good luck at times (and I'm sure Brentford have too this season) but this is hardly a remarkably lucky run of results unmerited by performances as xG would suggest with Swansea.

    Edit: These xG tables both show Brentford as the top team per xG unlike the infogol one (https://footballxg.com/xg-league-tables/ https://experimental361.com/2021/04/06/expected-goals-table-championship-5-6-apr-2021/). We're roughly where we should be but Brentford are underperforming their xG by a significant margin in both - that could be systematic in some way and last year I believe Brentford also underperformed their xG by a significant margin and I don't think that xG underperformance would/should necessarily even in out such a short period anyway.
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2021
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  17. AndrewH63

    AndrewH63 Reservist

    I suppose there could be a repeat of last season. With five games to go West Brom on 77 points, got three draws a defeat and a last game win, to go up in 83 points, pipping Brentford by two points. They had won their last three having lost the fifth and fourth from last games.
     
  18. YellowKicks

    YellowKicks Squad Player

    Definitely back by the time they play us, but really happy to listen to their podcast if that will prove reassuring! Good point on the fixtures, it's just that we are set up in a way that helps be a "flat track bully" - we give up nothing and have enough attacking talent to nick a goal in tight matches. We don't really batter teams as a rule, and our games against better teams haven't been convincing at all. I think my pessimism stems more from two really awful performances over the weekend than anything on the table. We look knackered and goal shy.

    The good luck is more from watching, that Rhodes miss, Hogan's miss first half for Brum, Cardiff keeper mistake last minute, Forest came within a whisker, Bachmann save vs Derby. Every game we've had a scare rather than anything convincing bar a completely depleted Rotherham or Bristol City. Brentford XG exactly, they seem to deserve to win every game they play, and make so many good chances in a game. Norwich I actually also think have had a fare share of luck and individual brilliance.

    I'm not confident but hopefully watching this Brentford Brum game will make me!
     
  19. LeedsOrn

    LeedsOrn First Year Pro

    I think much of that is fair, although Brentford have also had teams miss good chances against them, no doubt, and we have missed good chances during that run too that you've omitted (look at Pedro's chance yesterday, for instance).

    Henry and Dasilva should be back by our game (I read today a report linking Henry to Southampton that he is supposed to return in May and our game against them May 1st) but might not even be fully fit by then and either way, they're likely to miss half or more of their games in the run in. Brentford have 8 games left, including tonight. They'll need to win five of them to hit 85, and most likely need 6 wins to be competitive assuming that we get 1.5PPG, that looks tricky without two of their best players for much of that run.
     
  20. YellowKicks

    YellowKicks Squad Player

  21. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    And then they had 7 games to over haul us, I don't think so :cool:
     
  22. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    Thing is they will have to attack all games so might get caught on the break by a Millwall or Cardiff.

    Reckon Bournemouth will beat them.
     
  23. V Crabro

    V Crabro Reservist

    Bowyer's bounce - more than we could have hoped for.......
     
  24. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    Worth updating this:-

    Norwich..........105......87.....6 games left
    Watford............97......79.....6

    Brentford.........91......70......7
    Swansea...........90......69.....7
    Barnsley...........86......68.....6
    Bournemouth..86.......65.....7
    Reading............84......66.....6
     
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  25. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    My Run In Predictions (from #83) Edited 6th April 2021

    WATFORD
    Boro away 1pt - As Predicted
    Reading home 3pts
    Luton away 1pt
    Norwich away 1pt
    Millwall home 3pts
    Brentford away 1pt
    Swansea home 3pts
    Predicted Total still 13 points

    SWANSEA
    PNE home 0pts - Edited Had Predicted 3 points
    Millwall away 1pt
    Sheff Wed away 3pts
    Wycombe home 3pts
    QPR home 3pts
    Reading away 1pt
    Derby home 3pts
    Watford away 0pts
    Edited Prediction now 14 points

    BRENTFORD
    Huddersfield away 1pt - As Predicted
    Birmingham home 1pt - Edited Had Predicted 3 points

    PNE away 1pt
    Millwall home 3pts
    Cardiff home 3pts
    Bournemouth away 1pt
    Rotherham home 3pts
    Watford home 1pt
    Bristol city away 3pts
    Edited Prediction now 17 points

    WATFORD Predicted Total Still 91 points

    SWANSEA Predicted Now 83 points

    BRENTFORD Predicted Now 85 points


    THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT THE FUTURE IS YELLOW
     
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  26. Chumlax

    Chumlax Reservist

    I've read the entire post-game section of their forum's match threads for each of the past few games - I can tell you that they, en masse, do not think this in the slightest!
     
  27. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    I've not really been looking at Norwich as they do seem unreachable, but checking their final 6 games, I can make a case for them dropping quite a lot of points.

    Norwich remaining fixtures
    Apr 10 Derby (a), Apr 17 Bournemouth (h), Apr 20 Watford (h), Apr 24 QPR (a), May 1 Reading (h), May 8 Barnsley (a).

    It's not unthinkable to imagine they only draw at Derby, then lose the Bournemouth game. Providing we beat both Reading and Luton, that would make the table look very different. Prior to our match with Norwich they could be on 88 points and us on 85!!. If we beat them we're level and it's "game on" for the final 3 matches. Looking at the last 3 games, I would say they are of a similar level in terms of difficulty for both sides.

    It's of course a long shot, and it means Watford have to go on winning game after game just to catch up, but I can see Norwich slipping up quite a bit in the remaining games. I wouldn't close the door on us as Champions just yet, but if we fail to beat Reading or Norwich go to Derby and win, that dream is probably all over.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2021
  28. Carpster

    Carpster Squad Player

    Good optimism.
    We're closer to Norwich than Brentford are to us.
    But agree alot has to do with the next games. But their run in doesn't look the easiest either.
    They will be flying after last nights performance but it's easy to get too over confident especially with Derby not out of things down the bottom.
    As you say it's far from over yet.
     
  29. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    The thing I don’t get about the notion of catching Norwich is what is more important to them, promotion or winning the league? Surely it’s promotion? They haven’t quite achieved that yet, but show literally no signs of any sort of nerves at all about achieving it. Why would they buckle under pressure worrying about winning the league when they haven’t about something that is about 100x more important?

    The only chance we have of catching them is that they couldn’t give a shiny shyte about winning the league, and put themselves metaphorically on the beach once mathematically promoted. If they care a jot about winning the league they’ll dispatch it as efficiently as they have promotion.
     
  30. IRB

    IRB THe artist formally know as ImRonBurgundy?

    Norwich will win the league comfortably

    We still need minimum 7 points to likely secure 2nd place and none of the remaining teams we need to play are gonna give us those points easily

    Eyes on the prize lads
     
  31. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    They've been on a great run, but that doesn't mean they are invincible. It's Norwich after all. If we go up, they will probably be our easiest fixture next season.

    Before last night they dropped 4 points from their previous 2 games with draws against Blackburn and Preston. Derby are a similar club to those two so it's not unthinkable they only draw that game. Bournemouth are flying right now as well, so it will be an even contest when they play Norwich. It could easily be a narrow defeat. We're only talking about a couple of games where they draw and lose. If we win both our games, again very possible, it will then set up a great contest where we'll only be 3 points behind them.

    I'm not saying it's likely to happen, but it does seem to be a plausible scenario at this moment in time.
     
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  32. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    Yes, we play one team with nothing to play for and even then Millwall might even have a shot of the playoffs albeit unlikely.
     
  33. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    Norwich’s form across the whole season has either been great, or excellent. Yes they drew a couple recently but then smashed a team 7-0. They’ve lost 5 games all season, all teams lose games, we lose games, they’ve lost hardly any. They’ll no doubt drop the odd point between now and the end of the season, but so will we. It’s totally illogical to expect them to suddenly collapse, yes they’ll drop points but not even close to enough for us to catch them.

    What they’ll be next season is also completely irrelevant to the here and now.
     
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  34. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    It's not a collapse though. They will probably lose 1 or 2 games in the final 6 matches, considering they have three (on paper) very hard games. Personally, I think they will drop enough points for us to catch them, however, the big question is can we win enough games to overtake them? I think they will max out at around 92-93 points. We have to be good, very good and probably have to win 5 from 6, including avoiding defeat at Carrow Road. But you don't win leagues if you are not able to put in a run like that. If we put in a run like that, we deserve to be Champions.
     
  35. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    If you count Luton all our games apart from Millwall are against teams with something to play for and even then they might have a shot at the play offs. Of course if we win all 6 of our final games we’ll be in with a great shot, but I think the chances of that are slim to none, realistically we aren’t going to beat all four of Reading, Brentford, Swansea and Norwich, and it’s equally unlikely Norwich will simultaneously slump to below their worst 6 game form all season. You can paint a picture that Norwich have hard games, but so do we. We aren’t making 8 points up on them when at best we have fixtures of similar difficulty to them.
     

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